ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Florida1118]

Who's thinking Shary??

[supercane]

Somewhat shallow convection...


with center on western edge and peak of 30kt winds as suggested by latest ASCAT pass:


and Dvorak of 1.5 by SAB:
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
27/2345 UTC 26.9N 40.8W T1.5/1.5 90L

[Florida1118]

Taking them a long time...

[Florida1118]

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE
NORTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. RECENT SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW
IS PRODUCING WINDS TO GALE FORCE. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...ONLY A SMALL INCREASE
IN ORGANIZATION WOULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL STORM.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[HURAKAN]

Latest - good ol' shear

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 281137
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU OCT 28 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE NORTHERNMOST CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS HAS BECOMES LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW IS PRODUCING WINDS TO GALE
FORCE. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT...AN INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION COULD RESULT IN THE
FORMATION OF A TROPICAL STORM. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A SURFACE
LOW IS FORMING WITHIN A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH.

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO
20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH

[charlesw]

When do you think they will pull the trigger and name this one?

[dwsqos2]

Yes, it is becoming much less organized, and environmental conditions really only worsen from here on out. I suspect we will be without one invest rather soon.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[HURAKAN]

AL, 90, 2010102812, , BEST, 0, 269N, 411W, 35, 1010

down from 40 knots

[HURAKAN]

Code: Select all

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
SHEAR (KT)        22    21    22    27    26    40    53    42    31    15    23    37    45
SHEAR DIR        250   250   268   283   288   304   304   292   299   238   221   226   215


shear expected to remain strong

[cycloneye]

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE NORTHERNMOST CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS IS DISORGANIZED. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS BECOMING
LESS LIKELY DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

[HURAKAN]

Shear, oh shear

[Reesie]

Who's thinking Shary??

According to Jeff Masters - Dan Brown was

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1675

[HURAKAN]

Convection has increased

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

90L making another push for upgrade

[cycloneye]

Remains at 30%

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE
NORTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS INCREASED DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT ON FRIDAY. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Florida1118]

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1250 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE
NORTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT TODAY...AND THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.





It looks like the end....