ATL : EX TOMAS - Discussion

[Vortex]

This system is going to affect many many people...The cutoff thats expected to develop over the SE continues getting pushed back further west...If ridging builds in once the weakness lifts out this may remain over the western carribean for some time...

[Gustywind]

Continues to exhibit a fairly impressive sat pic appearence... not so far from the islands Expanding system down the road with ample fuel for 91L to intensify. How close to land it comes over the next couple of days will, in my opinion, determine just how much of a threat it could eventually be for the Eastern Caribbean Islands with my untrained eyes of amateur. Hey islanders from the EC let's continue to watch carefully 91L!

[Gustywind]

Look how huge is 91L MASSIVE twave is an euphemisma...

[latitude_20]

That's a nicely spinning "tropical wave"

[lester]

Possible future "Shary" looks scary

[bvigal]

I don't know where some of these outfits (wx channel Kevin Roth) do their geography, or maybe they just eyeball and say "about". The position of 91L in the 12z (8am this morning) model fix of 7.2N 48.6W is 717 nautical miles from Tobago and 745 n.m. from Bridgetown, Barbados or 851 statute miles. To say it's "1000 miles to the southeast of the Windward Islands" is just inaccurate! 150 miles miles makes a big difference.
The same model fix showed a forward speed of 18kt, it's simple math = 432 nautical miles/day, or 2 days away. Now I know, it will have to slow down (hopefully) to seriously organize.

I'd use the 18z fix, but since the 12z GFDL showed it dissipating (which I think happened with Earl early on, too, big deal!) they haven't run the 18z on 91, just on 90 and 92. If anything looking like this were 850 statute miles from Miami or New Orleans, you can bet things would be different. For people in the islands to be so concerned about this system is PERFECTLY UNDERSTANDABLE. It's practically in the neighborhood.

I don't remember if it was Emily or Dennis in '05 that was this far south as an invest, but managed to climb north and be a hurricane. The latitude on this thing doesn't dispell any concern. The GFDL is useless down there. Use the HWRF most accurate in that location.

[Sanibel]

They're probably worried about it vaporizing in weak climatology.

[expat2carib]

If/when this enormous wave starts spinning big time....the Islands are in serious problems. I have to agree with Hurakan that I've never seen a larger Tropical wave. It's huge!

Keep watching Islanders. This can be on the doorstep in no time

[Vortex]

does anyone have any stats regarding storms originating near the windwards in late october/nov and effecting the US in November?

[bvigal]

They're probably worried about it vaporizing in weak climatology.

I wish it WOULD vaporize!! There is some shear to the N/NW, we can keep hoping it goes POOF.

[cycloneye]

[Gustywind]

Possible future "Shary" looks scary

yeah right But for those who are in the islands... nothing to "share" with SHARY (with this should it verifies first).

[srainhoutx]

Possible future "Shary" looks scary

yeah right But for those who are in the islands... nothing to "share" with SHARY (with this should it verifies first).

Probably best to get back on Topic.

[bvigal]

does anyone have any stats regarding storms originating near the windwards in late october/nov and effecting the US in November?

I'm sure there are very few to none. But the thing about giving too much weight to climatology, it can skew an objective outlook on new systems. Just like Ivan was the first storm in 50+ years so far south, but Emily and Dennis followed the very next year. Mitch was the first storm in history to turn south from it's position and hit Honduras, and nearly 20,000 people died. Lenny was way out west of Jamaica, and hovered over St. Martin as a Cat 4, AT THANKSGIVING! Each new system is different, the history is so brief (less than 200 years). I look at it this way, how often when I'm looking at spaghetti models do I give any credance to the clipper? Almost never.

[cycloneye]

Up to 50%


A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT
725 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
TO BE FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO
20 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...VENEZUELA...AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF GUYANA DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

[bilhhh]

Opinions wanted !

Will a cold front , etc. protect us ... mid Texas thru
all of the Fla. panhandle.... from 91L?

If not, what do you see as the windspeed at landfall, forward speed and radius of TS winds?

Nervously yours,
bilhhh

PS this is a wonderful forum.

[Florida1118]

Opinions wanted !

Will a cold front , etc. protect us ... mid Texas thru
all of the Fla. panhandle.... from 91L?

If not, what do you see as the windspeed at landfall, forward speed and radius of TS winds?

Nervously yours,
bilhhh

PS this is a wonderful forum.

Well....Its very very far out, and most models turn it north before reaching the GOM. Theres just a lot of things that could change. Best we can do is stay tuned, but personally I am not worried with 91L...and wow 50%. I know there busy, but still. Maybe we see some upgrades at 11...

[cycloneye]

8:05 PM TWD Special Feature discussion:

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N49W TO A SFC LOW NEAR
8N51W TO 3N52W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS AS A BROAD
CYCLONIC PERTURBATION WITHIN THE ITCZ REGION...AS WELL AS
EMBEDDED IN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING
ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 4N-15N BETWEEN 45W-56W. ENHANCEMENT
OF THE STRONGER ONGOING CONVECTION IS DUE TO UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE PROVIDED BY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED
NEAR 10N50W. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION
...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...
VENEZUELA...AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF GUYANA DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

[Florida1118]

8:05 PM TWD Special Feature discussion:

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N49W TO A SFC LOW NEAR
8N51W TO 3N52W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS AS A BROAD
CYCLONIC PERTURBATION WITHIN THE ITCZ REGION...AS WELL AS
EMBEDDED IN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING
ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 4N-15N BETWEEN 45W-56W. ENHANCEMENT
OF THE STRONGER ONGOING CONVECTION IS DUE TO UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE PROVIDED BY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED
NEAR 10N50W. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION
...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...
VENEZUELA...AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF GUYANA DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

So...are they saying it is too broad, or...It wont sustain its own convection later?
And from NWS San Juan:
AS A SERIES OF WEATHER FEATURES INTERACTS TO PRODUCE ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. THE FIRST ONE...IS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CURRENTLY
LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. THIS AREA...IS ACQUIRING SOME
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTIC...AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS
MONITORING THIS AREA FOR POSSIBLE SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO.

[HURAKAN]

looking good