ATL : EX TOMAS - Discussion

#141 Postby **expat2carib** » Thu Oct 28, 2010 9:09 pm

HURAKAN wrote:Message to 91L : "Shary is taken"

This system (91L) i too big to be called 'scary' Shary.

#142 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Oct 28, 2010 9:13 pm

For those members who may not know,there is a (Tentative) mission planned for tommorow afternoon with plane departing around 11:30 AM EDT.

SUSPECT AREA (APPROACHING WINDWARD ISLANDS)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 29/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01KKA INVEST
C. 29/1530Z
D. 09.5N 57.0W
E. 29/1730Z TO 29/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

#143 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Thu Oct 28, 2010 9:15 pm

If they don't send out recon tomorrow thats crazy.

Florida1118 · #144 Postby **Florida1118** » Thu Oct 28, 2010 9:20 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:If they don't send out recon tomorrow thats crazy.

If they don't put this at high chance that's crazy.

#145 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Thu Oct 28, 2010 9:21 pm

Florida1118 wrote:
SouthDadeFish wrote:If they don't send out recon tomorrow thats crazy.

If they don't put this at high chance that's crazy.

Haha, I thought it was crazy it wasn't red at 8 pm.

#146 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Oct 28, 2010 9:22 pm

How is this not at least a depression already? It looks more like a tropical storm. Do they really need to wait for recon to upgrade this thing? I say upgrade it now and lets get a projected path and cone as this is closing in on the islands quickly.

#147 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Oct 28, 2010 9:23 pm

perplexed by this system, wow :eek:

hurricaneCW · #148 Postby **hurricaneCW** » Thu Oct 28, 2010 9:26 pm

Quite a spectacular looking system. I agree that it should have been code red, but without a well defined LLC, the convection could easily fall apart. That's not what's happening right now though, there's plenty of convection and new convection is constantly firing. This is probably one of the most impressive looking disturbances that I have seen all season, it's very expansive, has well defined curvature, and plenty of moisture.

I wonder what the future holds for 91L.

HurricaneRobert · #149 Postby **HurricaneRobert** » Thu Oct 28, 2010 9:27 pm

It looks like an August system but it is almost November...

#150 Postby **expat2carib** » Thu Oct 28, 2010 9:27 pm

gatorcane wrote:How is this not at least a depression already? It looks more like a tropical storm. Do they really need to wait for recon to upgrade this thing? I say upgrade it now and lets get a projected path and cone as this is closing in on the islands quickly.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg

I'm looking at the banding and the size. and I'm just thinking :eek:

#151 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Thu Oct 28, 2010 9:28 pm

Looks like convection is consolidating in a band building near and to the E of the center. Focused convection is another sign of organization.

#152 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Oct 28, 2010 9:29 pm

The size between now TS Shary SSE of Bermuda and 91L is 4 times larger in favor of 91L.

Florida1118 · #153 Postby **Florida1118** » Thu Oct 28, 2010 9:29 pm

It looks like 90L from earlier this season (Or what ever one it was). Maybe there waiting for it to shrink and consolidate.

#154 Postby **Vortex** » Thu Oct 28, 2010 9:31 pm

If I didn't know the date, just looking at that image gator posted, I would think this was late August/September.

Both the GFS/ECM forecast ridging to build along the east coast once the trough lifts out later next week. The latest 18z GFS solution is interesting as it takes it across Haiti than N to just NE of the bahamas then back to the wsw towards the bahamas as it gets trapped by the ridge along the east coast...

#155 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Thu Oct 28, 2010 9:34 pm

Vortex wrote:If I didn't know the date, just looking at that image gator posted, I would think this was late August/September.

Both the GFS/ECM forecast ridging to build along the east coast once the trough lifts out later next week. The latest 18z GFS solution is interesting as it takes it across Haiti than N to just NE of the bahamas then back to the wsw towards the bahamas as it gets trapped by the ridge along the east coast...

I know it's ridiculously far out, but the 18Z GFS reminded me a lot of Jeanne from 2004.

#156 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Oct 28, 2010 9:35 pm

Vortex wrote:If I didn't know the date, just looking at that image gator posted, I would think this was late August/September.

Both the GFS/ECM forecast ridging to build along the east coast once the trough lifts out later next week. The latest 18z GFS solution is interesting as it takes it across Haiti than N to just NE of the bahamas then back to the wsw towards the bahamas as it gets trapped by the ridge along the east coast...

Yeah I see that. Interesting the gfs keeps it quite strong too. Looks like something you would see approaching the Bahamas from the east in august or september.

We do note that is 300+ hours into that run.

Gustywind · #157 Postby **Gustywind** » Thu Oct 28, 2010 9:49 pm

T'Bonz · #158 Postby **T'Bonz** » Thu Oct 28, 2010 9:51 pm

Heh, good. I wanted 91L to be Tomas, not Shary.

ROCK · #159 Postby **ROCK** » Thu Oct 28, 2010 9:51 pm

I am very impressed to see something like this in Nov down there. If it developes even more impressed....Huge system....WPAC looking..IMO...

well not Nov yet but will be in a few days...

#160 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Oct 28, 2010 10:47 pm

impressive to say the least

ATL : EX TOMAS - Discussion

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Re: ATL : INVEST 91L - Discussion

Re: ATL : INVEST 91L - Discussion

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