ATL : EX TOMAS - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

impressive outflow

[chrisjslucia]

I must have awakened into some sort of bizzaro world where Shary is a TS with Dvorak 2.5 and 91L is only a "wave" with Dvorak 1.5. This "wave" appears to be a moderate tropical storm.

[/quote]

That buoy may have been closer before 6 hrs ago. The center is past 55W now. This is a TS if I've ever seen one.[/quote]

Are we going to have to wait for the aerial recon before NHC make a call on this? For us Islanders, that is cutting it very fine. At the moment the variance in the model tracks simply has everyone from Trinidad to Martinique on edge.

[Crackbone]

Long time lurker. BTW, This forum has completely cultivated an interest in tropical weather for me.

Based on my limited knowledge of tropical cyclones, this looks like a TS right now.

My god, i can't believe the size on this storm, it's really quite impressive.

[plasticup]

My god, i can't believe the size on this storm, it's really quite impressive.

I wonder if that's the reason they haven't ungraded it. The system is so large that maybe they don't think it could have closed its circulation?

I dunno, I am at a loss. Welcome to the forum though! Always good to have fresh faces

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track

AL, 91, 2010102912, , BEST, 0, 93N, 557W, 30, 1005, DB

[Weatherboy1]

Yeah, this sure looks like a TS to me. Wouldn't be surprised to see them skip the TD designation and go straight to naming this puppy.

[plasticup]

Yeah, this sure looks like a TS to me. Wouldn't be surprised to see them skip the TD designation and go straight to naming this puppy.

Exactly. Calling this monster a TD would be ridiculous

[GCANE]

I don't think circulation has quite gotten down to the surface yet.

Not a roll on MIMIC-TPW yet.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... t72hrs.gif

Later this afternoon however should be a different story.

I expect it then to get cranking.

[Gustywind]

[Crackbone]

Yeah, this sure looks like a TS to me. Wouldn't be surprised to see them skip the TD designation and go straight to naming this puppy.

I wouldn't be surprised, they've done it a few times this year already.

As mentioned in a previous post, this has a real "typhoon" look and feel to it, I'm just taken aback by the sheer size.

[GCANE]

Yeah, this sure looks like a TS to me. Wouldn't be surprised to see them skip the TD designation and go straight to naming this puppy.

I wouldn't be surprised, they've done it a few times this year already.

As mentioned in a previous post, this has a real "typhoon" look and feel to it, I'm just taken aback by the sheer size.

Outflow looks better than most West Pac Monsters.

[SouthDadeFish]

What's stopping this from rapidly intensifying once it gets a surface circulation? It appears to have the best conditions out of any storm this season except for maybe Igor?

[northjaxpro]

This system has an extremely impressive outflow and I must say that 91L is the one of the best looking systems based on satellite presentation for a "supposed invest" that I have seen this year. LOL... Seriously though, no doubt in my mind that this entity is already a TS, and once Recon arrives out there later today, I would not be the least surprised that this system will be respectably strong. Soon to be Tomas really looks to be potentially a huge problem in the coming days in the Caribbean. Also, it appears that the system will gain just enough latitude tp not get disrupted in a significant manner with the coast of South America in the next few days.

[Crackbone]

This system has an extremely impressive outflow and I must say that 91L is the one of the best looking systems based on satellite presentation for a "supposed invest" that I have seen this year. LOL... Seriously though, no doubt in my mind that this entity is already a TS, and once Recon arrives out there later today, I would not be the leazt surprised that this system will be respectably strong. Soon to be Tomas really looks to be potentially a huge problem in the coming days in the Caribbean. Also, it appears that the system will gain just enough latitude top not get disrupted in a significant manner with the coast of South America in the next few days.

I think anyone looking at the data could make the call to change the classification on this sucker. As you mentioned, the satellite imagery alone makes a strong argument. Based on much of the conservative calls this year, we'll probably have to wait for recon.

[cycloneye]

SSD dvorak confirms this is a TC already.

29/1145 UTC 10.1N 55.9W T2.0/2.0 91L -- Atlantic

[GCANE]

What's stopping this from rapidly intensifying once it gets a surface circulation? It appears to have the best conditions out of any storm this season except for maybe Igor?

Once it gains a little more latitude, Coriolis will kick in and he should really get going.

IMHO a good chance for RI in 24 hrs.

Looking at the width of the moisture field and outflow; once he does get spinning, it will take a lot to get him to stop spinning as well.

Also, I checked the Dynamical Tropopause forecast, and the trof that is supposed to recurve him looks like it now may lift earlier.

A sharp recurve may not be a certainty.

[Gustywind]

From CrownWeather http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=325

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued: Friday, October 29, 2010 615 am ET/515 am CT

Invest 91-L Located About 600 Miles East-Southeast Of The Windward Islands:

I am pretty concerned about the future of Invest 91-L and what kind of impact it may have on the islands in the Caribbean. As of this morning, Invest 91-L was located about 600 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands. This system continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms and satellite imagery shows it becoming better and better organized with each passing hour. It seems likely that Invest 91-L is well on its way to becoming Tropical Depression #21 and then Tropical Storm Tomas.

Reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon and we will likely see then whether we have a tropical depression or a tropical storm. Satellite wind analysis shows that the circulation associated with Invest 91-L is close to being closed off and I suspect we will see Invest 91-L upgraded to a tropical depression either by later today or at the latest Saturday morning.

After that, I think we will see slow, but steady intensification as Invest 91-L has a pretty big circulation which slows down the intensification rate. In addition, there may be some dry air entrainment from the north coast of South America this weekend which could slow down the intensification process.

With that said, I think this system may very well be a tropical storm as it tracks in between Tabago and Barbados and then across the Windward Islands during Saturday and Saturday night. Interests in these areas should be prepared for tropical storm conditions during Saturday and Saturday night.
As we get into next week, this system’s potential will increase dramatically as it gets into the central Caribbean by Tuesday and Wednesday where environmental conditions will be very favorable for intensification. It should be noted that the European model shows little development over the next couple of days and shows more robust intensification by the middle part of next week. Also, the GFS model has been consistently forecasting a strong tropical cyclone in the central Caribbean by Wednesday. In fact, the GFS model forecasts a scenario that would bring hurricane conditions to Jamaica by next Friday and next Saturday and then for this system to impact Hispaniola next weekend.

Looking at a couple of the other model guidance members. The Canadian model forecasts Invest 91-L to track over the Windward Islands tonight into early Saturday and then track west-northwestward across the eastern Caribbean this weekend and intensify as it does so. The Canadian model ultimately forecasts this system to track a shade east of Jamaica on Wednesday morning and then over extreme eastern Cuba Thursday morning before being wisked out into the open Atlantic late next week.

The UKMET model forecasts Invest 91-L to actually track over northern Trinidad late tonight and then track into the southeastern Caribbean on Saturday. The UKMET model then forecasts a westward track and forecasts this to be a fairly strong storm about halfway between Jamaica and Panama by Tuesday evening.

The HWRF model is more complicated and forecasts Invest 91-L to track to a position about halfway between Tobago and Barbados by Saturday morning as a tropical storm and then track across the island of St. Lucia late Saturday as a tropical storm. Once in the eastern Caribbean, the HWRF model forecasts Invest 91-L to slow way down and intensify next week bringing the potential for tropical storm conditions to much of the Lesser Antilles during Sunday as this system tracks northwest or even north-northwest. The HWRF model then forecasts a period of tropical storm conditions for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands during Monday through Monday night before this system is forecast to shift back to the south.

The Hurricane track consensus models forecast a track that would take Invest 91-L across the Windward Islands just north of Grenada during Saturday morning and then a west-northwest slow moving track across the eastern Caribbean next week so that by Wednesday, it is forecast to be just south of the Dominican Republic.

As I have already mentioned, I think this system will track halfway between Tobago and Barbados and then across the Windward Islands bringing tropical storm conditions during Saturday into Saturday night as far north as Barbados and St. Lucia and as far south as Trinidad and Tobago. After that, slow, but steady intensification is likely early next week as this system tracks west-northwest across the eastern and then the central Caribbean by Wednesday. More robust intensification is very possible thereafter and this system may pose a significant threat to Jamaica, eastern Cuba and Hispaniola by late next week.

So, all interests in the Windward Islands, Trinidad, Tobago and Barbados should closely monitor the progress of this system as tropical storm conditions are expected Saturday into Saturday night. In addition, all interests in the Caribbean, especially those in Jamaica, eastern Cuba, Haiti and the Dominican Republic should keep close tabs on this system. I will be keeping a close eye on this potential and will keep you all updated.

[wxman57]

I measure 400 miles from the southern Windward Islands, 350 from Trinidad. At the AMS Meeting in Tucson, the NHC stated that they could and possibly would issue TS watches/warnings for disturbances that they expected to develop. Here's their chance.

[HURAKAN]

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[CourierPR]

So much for this taking until next week to start getting its act together. When I look at the system on satellite I recall a line that the late American sportscaster, Jack Buck, made famous, "I don't believe what I just saw!"