ATL : TOMAS - Models

[cycloneye]

139
WHXX01 KWBC 291853
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1853 UTC FRI OCT 29 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE TOMAS (AL212010) 20101029 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
101029 1800 101030 0600 101030 1800 101031 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.8N 56.8W 11.7N 60.1W 12.3N 63.3W 12.6N 66.3W
BAMD 10.8N 56.8W 11.7N 59.1W 12.5N 61.3W 13.1N 63.4W
BAMM 10.8N 56.8W 11.6N 59.2W 12.3N 61.5W 12.9N 63.8W
LBAR 10.8N 56.8W 12.1N 59.2W 14.0N 61.6W 15.0N 63.5W
SHIP 35KTS 42KTS 51KTS 57KTS
DSHP 35KTS 42KTS 51KTS 57KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
101031 1800 101101 1800 101102 1800 101103 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.8N 69.2W 13.1N 74.7W 12.9N 77.5W 14.3N 75.5W
BAMD 13.9N 65.6W 15.5N 70.0W 17.5N 73.3W 21.3N 74.4W
BAMM 13.5N 66.3W 14.6N 71.5W 15.7N 75.7W 17.2N 77.2W
LBAR 16.1N 65.0W 17.3N 66.7W 17.1N 66.5W 16.7N 64.9W
SHIP 63KTS 65KTS 67KTS 73KTS
DSHP 63KTS 65KTS 67KTS 72KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.8N LONCUR = 56.8W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 18KT
LATM12 = 9.3N LONM12 = 53.7W DIRM12 = 295DEG SPDM12 = 18KT
LATM24 = 7.7N LONM24 = 50.4W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 998MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 40NM RD34SE = 30NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 40NM

[Ivanhater]

Euro 210..Eastern Cuba

Trough lifting out fast. Long range track is highly uncertain.

[Ivanhater]

Left behind in the Caribbean on the Euro...gaining strength and ridging building

[cycloneye]

[HURAKAN]

Code: Select all

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    69% is   5.5 times the sample mean(12.6%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    55% is   6.8 times the sample mean( 8.1%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=    49% is  10.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=    27% is   7.8 times the sample mean( 3.4%)

impressive

[tolakram]

Hopefully the initial track is wrong, as it usually is. Best we can hope for is a complete stall or shooting the gap somewhere. The big ones always surprise, hopefully this one will not.

[CrazyC83]

The bullseye around Haiti is just FRIGHTENING...

[KWT]

This is certainly looking like an interesting system to watch, the models aty the moment suggest the C.Caribbean is at the most risk but its really early days yet...could easily track further west then expected as the NHC track shows.

[Ivanhater]

12 Euro Ensembles agree with the Operational of Tomas NOT getting picked up by the trough

[KWT]

Long range is very uncertain but if I was to pick ua track I'd go with a more northerliy track compared to say the ECM ensembles, in fact I think the ECM op isn't bad but just too slow with getting it there, could be there in nearly half the time...

[Ivanhater]

Long range is very uncertain but if I was to pick ua track I'd go with a more northerliy track compared to say the ECM ensembles, in fact I think the ECM op isn't bad but just too slow with getting it there, could be there in nearly half the time...

I think your looking at the Euro Op wrong. It gets around Jamaica in less than 5 days. It just stalls Tomas.

[Vortex]

12Z ecm ensembles very interesting....

[KWT]

Yeah IH, but I don't think it goes as far SW as the 12z op shows, here for example:

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP120.gif

Ps, looks like the ECM also may slightly shear the system past 72hrs.

[Ntxw]

Yeah IH, but I don't think it goes as far SW as the 12z op shows, here for example:

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP120.gif

Ps, looks like the ECM also may slightly shear the system past 72hrs.

It very well could go that far SW with the big high planted over the SE. We've learned recently from King Richard not to doubt the La Nina ridge.

[KWT]

Its not impossible I suppose, maybe like we saw with Iris in 2001.

For now the WNW track looks a good idea, then some more northward motion before perhaps a bend back west, I'm not convinced just yet it exits totally at the first attempt though at this time of year a strong hurricane will cvertainly have a good shot at lifting out with even a half baked trough.

[Ntxw]

Its not impossible I suppose, maybe like we saw with Iris in 2001.

For now the WNW track looks a good idea, then some more northward motion before perhaps a bend back west, I'm not convinced just yet it exits totally at the first attempt though at this time of year a strong hurricane will cvertainly have a good shot at lifting out with even a half baked trough.

I do think this storm will curve towards Haiti/DR unfortunately. It's just the possible solution given by the EC is likely explained by that ridge but then again the EC doesn't have this quite that intense of a storm anyhow. We have a few days yet to determine where it could go.

[Dean4Storms]

The ECM clearly isn't depicting as deep a trough to latch onto Tomas. Going to be a close call either way and we'll all be playing the looking for trends game from the guidance over the next week!!

[KWT]

Another factor that Wxman57 mentioned on the other thread is the ECM doesn't appear to have this system nearly as deep as it probably will be and thus maybe underestimating its chances of latching onto the trough.

[cycloneye]

00z Tropical Models

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 300023
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0023 UTC SAT OCT 30 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE TOMAS (AL212010) 20101030 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        101030  0000   101030  1200   101031  0000   101031  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    11.7N  57.8W   12.5N  60.5W   13.3N  63.3W   13.7N  66.2W
BAMD    11.7N  57.8W   12.5N  59.8W   13.1N  61.7W   13.7N  63.6W
BAMM    11.7N  57.8W   12.3N  59.8W   12.9N  61.8W   13.3N  64.0W
LBAR    11.7N  57.8W   13.4N  59.7W   14.4N  61.4W   15.7N  62.6W
SHIP        50KTS          62KTS          72KTS          75KTS
DSHP        50KTS          62KTS          72KTS          75KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        101101  0000   101102  0000   101103  0000   101104  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    14.2N  69.1W   14.6N  74.7W   13.9N  78.1W   13.5N  76.9W
BAMD    14.4N  65.7W   15.8N  69.9W   17.5N  72.9W   20.2N  74.6W
BAMM    13.9N  66.3W   14.8N  71.2W   15.5N  75.0W   16.4N  76.6W
LBAR    16.8N  63.9W   16.6N  65.4W   15.8N  65.5W   15.0N  64.4W
SHIP        77KTS          77KTS          80KTS          85KTS
DSHP        77KTS          77KTS          80KTS          85KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  11.7N LONCUR =  57.8W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR =  13KT
LATM12 =  10.0N LONM12 =  55.3W DIRM12 = 301DEG SPDM12 =  17KT
LATM24 =   8.5N LONM24 =  52.0W
WNDCUR =   50KT RMAXWD =   30NM WNDM12 =   30KT
CENPRS =  999MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD =  250NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =   90NM RD34SE =   45NM RD34SW =   45NM RD34NW =  90NM


[cycloneye]