ATL : EX TOMAS - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Fourth pass yields 999 mbs extrapolated.

[bahamaswx]

Looks scary. With that type of presentation this should ramp from a minimal hurricane to a major in no time.

[abajan]

We are scheduled to fly in to St. Lucia tomorrow afternoon (2pm).

Do any of you think that airlines will be flying in? So far nothing is canceled.

Thank you for your advice.

I suspect that the ceiling/visibility requirements for safe operation in St. Lucia are somewhat higher than with a major, large airfield. With numerous heavy squalls causing low ceilings/visibility, possibly centered on tomorrow afternoon, I'm sure there will be significant delays in all flights. Many may be canceled. Hard to say what the puddle-jumpers will fly in, weather-wise, down there, though.

There are two airports there: George Charles in the north near the capital which accommodates small aircraft and the newer Hewanorra International in the south.

[KWT]

Probably has enough time to become a decent category-1 hurricane before it passes through the southern windwards, say 70-80kts and if that was to occur it'd certainly give a pretty good blows to the islands.

Wrapping up real nicely now...

[cycloneye]

Fourth decoded VDM.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 29th day of the month at 23:21Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 305)
Mission Purpose: Investigate ninth suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 17
A. Time of Center Fix: 29th day of the month at 23:00:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 11°49'N 57°21'W (11.8167N 57.35W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 176 miles (284 km) to the ESE (120°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 34kts (~ 39.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 45 nautical miles (52 statute miles) to the SW (217°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 289° at 23kts (From the WNW at ~ 26.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 34 nautical miles (39 statute miles) to the SW (220°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 999mb (29.50 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 399m (1,309ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 396m (1,299ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 24°C (75°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Wind Outbound: 61kts (~ 70.2mph) in the north quadrant at 23:06:40Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 61kts (~ 70.2mph) in the north quadrant at 23:06:40Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet

[SouthDadeFish]

How come they didnt use the higher SFMR reports in the VDM?

[Ivanhater]

[SouthDadeFish]

Beautiful bursting starting to cover the center. Here comes the real strengthening.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_640.asp?product=tropical_ge_4km_ir4_floater_1

[hurricaneCW]

I'm really surprised how this storm came together. Usually these types of waves take a long time to develop and they go through periods of convection and no convection. This one is really starting to wrap up now, the outflow is phenomenal. I hope the islands are bracing themselves, we could see a hurricane by the time it reaches them and with Tomas (not crazy about the name) we should reach the hyperactive threshold very easily.

[KWT]

Yep good bursting going on with this system now and its starting to really wrap itself around.

History doesn't really give us too many clues though one of the better matches for now is Hazel...which I'm sure will ring alarm bells for Central Caribbean...

[wxman57]

Special advisory coming out shortly. 60 mph.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM TOMAS TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
745 PM AST FRI OCT 29 2010

...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS TOMAS STRONGER...SPECIAL
ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED SOON...

RECENT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS IN TROPICAL STORM TOMAS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH. A
SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT 8 PM AST AND WILL SUPERSEDE THE
REGULARLY SCHEDULED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/BROWN

[abajan]

45 minutes ago, our airport was already reporting wind gusts of 55 mph!



Gonna be a long night.

[KWT]

Upto 60mph already, probably just means the NHC will go even higher with the forecast come next advisory, wouldn't surprise me if they go as high as 105-110kts as a max strengthe next time...

Going to be a rough 24hrs for the islands in this systems path...

[Vortex]

amazing sat images coming in....convective bursting in full swing..pressure should begin to realy drop off over the next 6-12 hours as a CDO begins to take shape... ...

[Vortex]

I never would of imagined back in June that Halloween weekend would bring on the main show...

[cycloneye]

TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
800 PM AST FRI OCT 29 2010

...TOMAS STRENGTHENING QUICKLY EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.6N 57.6W
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM SE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM ESE OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES

[J&AinDC]

Thank you everyone for your responses. To follow up our flight is Delta from Atlanta's Hartsfield-Jackson Airport to Hewanorra International Airport. It is on a 757.

It is our honeymoon so we are keeping our fingers crossed.

We are scheduled to fly in to St. Lucia tomorrow afternoon (2pm).

Do any of you think that airlines will be flying in? So far nothing is canceled.

Thank you for your advice.

I suspect that the ceiling/visibility requirements for safe operation in St. Lucia are somewhat higher than with a major, large airfield. With numerous heavy squalls causing low ceilings/visibility, possibly centered on tomorrow afternoon, I'm sure there will be significant delays in all flights. Many may be canceled. Hard to say what the puddle-jumpers will fly in, weather-wise, down there, though.

There are two airports there: George Charles in the north near the capital which accommodates small aircraft and the newer Hewanorra International in the south.

[KWT]

amazing sat images coming in....convective bursting in full swing..pressure should begin to realy drop off over the next 6-12 hours as a CDO begins to take shape... ...

I fully expect a hurricane in the next 12hrs or so if this trend continues...

[hurricaneCW]

There is a much greater possibility of a hurricane through the southern islands, it is bursting like crazy right now. Could Tomas be this season's Wilma in terms of rapid intensification and strength?