What is the future of this season?

[Ntxw]

^ Complacency will become a problem next year I think. If I can recall, every year has warm waters. It's a matter of how the upper pattern sets up.

[StormClouds63]

^ Complacency will become a problem next year I think. If I can recall, every year has warm waters. It's a matter of how the upper pattern sets up.

You're right regarding water temperatures. While waters must be 80 degrees or above to generate or sustain a hurricane, the upper air patterns have to be favorable or nothing will form ... or if something has formed and then moves into a hostile environment, it gets sheared to pieces. We saw that this year.

Every year the GOM water temperatures are capable of sustaining a cat5 storm ... but it's favorable or unfavorable upper air patterns that are really the key factor. This year, the GOM had bathwater temps, but shear and ULLs cut everything to pieces. Unlike in 2005 and 2008, this season the GOM was a graveyard for tropical systems. 2011? Who knows? Complacency will be less of a problem in our region, with memories of Ike and Rita still fresh. However, every season that goes by w/o a U.S. landfall creates a false sense of security among coastal residents.

[hurricaneCW]

I think the U.S. has one more shot of a storm. I know the long range gfs is insisting on another Caribbean storm that passes either over or very close to south Florida. The time frame is October 20-25. It's probably the last favorable period in the Caribbean for another big storm, the sinking air is forecast to completely go away and the upper level pattern favors a Wilma like track.

So with Paula, we're up to 16 storms, 9 hurricanes, and I believe 5 majors unless Paula decides to acquire major status which is definitely possible. Alex was really close too. As of now, 18 is probably a good number for named storms with 1 more in October and 1 in November.

[Macrocane]

I know people in US will think the forecast was a bust but I'm sure that people in Mexico and Central America will remember 2010 as a year were forecast verified well. And about the future of this season I think we may have 2 and possibly 3 storms more after Paula with 1 or 2 beocming hurricanes and one of them may be a major hurricane.

[gatorcane]

I think there will be at least one more major threat for the U.S (Florida probably). The GFS is definitely latching on to a large Caribbean system that starts developing 5 days from now in the SW Caribbean as the wet-phase of the MJO moves in.

[CrazyC83]

I personally predicted a bust in the GOM. It seems I underestimated the numbers but had the right idea.

[Steve]

>>I personally predicted a bust in the GOM. It seems I underestimated the numbers but had the right idea.

What does this mean?

1) Hurricane Alex
2) Tropical Depression 2
3) Tropical Storm Bonnie (and declassified remnants flooding my street)
4) 92L, 95(?)L (both flooded my neighborhood)
5) Tropical Depression 5, and again Tropical Depression 5
6) Tropical Storm Hermine
7) Hurricane Karl (+/-Major)

That doesn't look like a bust to me - more like super busy for any season. Do you have the text of what you said? That's a lot of activity in the Gulf in any year.

[Migle]

>>I personally predicted a bust in the GOM. It seems I underestimated the numbers but had the right idea.

What does this mean?

1) Hurricane Alex
2) Tropical Depression 2
3) Tropical Storm Bonnie (and declassified remnants flooding my street)
4) 92L, 95(?)L (both flooded my neighborhood)
5) Tropical Depression 5, and again Tropical Depression 5
6) Tropical Storm Hermine
7) Hurricane Karl (+/-Major)

That doesn't look like a bust to me - more like super busy for any season. Do you have the text of what you said? That's a lot of activity in the Gulf in any year.

I think he might have meant towards major land falling storms. And really, the BOC/Western Gulf was on fire this year. I know its the same body of water as the GOM, but 1 Major, A strong Category 2, and a quickly developed TS is completely different from what happened in the Central to Eastern Gulf.If you look at the Eastern Gulf, Bonnie and TD5 both died in the Gulf. Also, I still believe that 95L was a TD, but doesn't really matter now I guess.

[FireRat]

October's tally so far: 3:3:0

Looks a bit above average in activity by one storm. Three hurricanes, two landfalls...one weak and the second, Richard, moderate. Season ends November 30, so maybe some more action before then?

Models see action in the Caribbean by November 3rd thru the 9th. November might be very active. If this year resembles 2001, we can see up to 3 named systems and, perhaps, one monster hurricane like Michelle that year. This month should be interesting to say the least.

[Blown Away]

I think the CONUS threat is very low now, maybe a sheared TS from the Caribbean at best. Hopefully my insurance rates will go down.

[FireRat]

Roger that! If anyone gets it from here on it'll likely be Cuba or Hispaniola. This season ended up looking similar to 2000 and 2001, these were the best analog years especially with regards to no landfalling hurricanes in the CONUS. Active, but mainly fish storms or Central America types.

If there was one place in the US to still have some chance at a landfall in November it would only be the Florida Peninsula.

[ConvergenceZone]

the best way to phrase it, is that it's been a very active season, but a non-memorable season....

A very active season though from a non-usa standpoint.....

[Weatherfreak000]

the best way to phrase it, is that it's been a very active season, but a non-memorable season....

A very active season though from a non-usa standpoint.....

As a whole the seasons both look remarkably similar. Of course I know 1995 had hurricane landfalls, but the synoptics at that particular moment just so happened to allow this to occur. What's my point? My point is climatology shows this sort of pattern is Expected during the La Nina event.


As far as this argument I have seen claiming the general public will think this season is a dud, I don't like that and I would like to state a few words. I agree at first an uninformed citizen would assume that, but I guarantee you without a shadow of a doubt ANYBODY would understand how memorable this season IS and continues to BE with a very simple explanation. I don't find undermining the intelligence of smart people to be a strong thesis of debate. All I had to do was tell my family in 100 years there have only been 3 storms given the "R" name and they already understand how active this season has been. Not very hard.

Remember the people are NOT ignorant, they are NOT misinformed, they are merely uninformed of their own volition.

[dwsqos2]

Well Ivan, it's easy to get to the 'T' storm when they name everything that has thunderstorms with it. Thinking back to storms Bonnie, Colin, Gaston, Fiona, or Nicole and then TD 2, and 5...what a waste. Half of those systems existed but for a moment in time and there is no good indication (IMO) that the above storms carried 39 mph sustained winds...in gusts, maybe. Also lets throw in the fact that the NHC has completely skewed the records by naming sub-tropical storms. You mean we went nearly 70 years without reaching 21 storms and in the last 5 years, we're on the verge of doing it twice? Come on. Something is up and it is NOT the 'changing climate.'

Fiona and Colin (part 2) at least were perfectly fine and probably would have been classified in any basin with the exception of perhaps the Bay of Bengal. If you want to play the tiny violin over Bonnie, Nicole, and Gaston, the lack of sufficient winds won't work. The lack of a well-defined circulation might, particularly in the cases of Bonnie and Nicole.

But really, this argument, which pops up nearly every season, is totally pointless if one uses a metric of activity that accounts for a systems' longevity and strength. This is why so many beat the ACE drum as an excellent measure of a seasons total activity. So what if Bonnie, Nicole, and Gaston were named; they contributed in total less than one unit of ACE.

As far as subtropical storms, well, they have been classified since the late 60s, so adding subtropical storms to pre-2002 seasonal totals isn't really difficult. Also, if subtropical storms drive you to the brink, once again ACE is a metric that allows you to exclude them entirely.

[ConvergenceZone]

Weatherfreak000, when I say non-memorable, I mean from a USA standpoint.

memorable = the landfalling hurricanes they forecasted striking the usa, that didn't materialize.


You aren't going to necessarily remember a car accident that happen in another city, but if it happens to you, then you will remember it....


BUT if you are talking about ACE numbers and the amount of storms(including the incredible amount of duds late in the season), then yes, it was
for sure an active season

[Florida1118]

the best way to phrase it, is that it's been a very active season, but a non-memorable season....

A very active season though from a non-usa standpoint.....

As a whole the seasons both look remarkably similar. Of course I know 1995 had hurricane landfalls, but the synoptics at that particular moment just so happened to allow this to occur. What's my point? My point is climatology shows this sort of pattern is Expected during the La Nina event.


As far as this argument I have seen claiming the general public will think this season is a dud, I don't like that and I would like to state a few words. I agree at first an uninformed citizen would assume that, but I guarantee you without a shadow of a doubt ANYBODY would understand how memorable this season IS and continues to BE with a very simple explanation. I don't find undermining the intelligence of smart people to be a strong thesis of debate. All I had to do was tell my family in 100 years there have only been 3 storms given the "R" name and they already understand how active this season has been. Not very hard.

Remember the people are NOT ignorant, they are NOT misinformed, they are merely uninformed of their own volition.

The uninformed public are ignorant though. Lets look back...A cat. 5 spinning of the Louisiana coast, and they stay. They live in a bowl, mets. warn them, they still stay. What I'm getting at is, it is there job living on the coast, to be informed. Heck, do we really need to send Officers to every house just to tell them it is unsafe and there's a hurricane? I think that's ridiculous. I asked some people "How many TS do you think formed this year so far?" I got 6, 4, 32....They didn't even know that Mexico has been hit hard this year. To most people, like CZ said, unless their being ruined, they don't really care. And back to Katrina, no one had to die. It didn't pop up. I think it's ridiculous that so many lost their lives. And as for Misinformed, How many times has the Media actually told the truth and NOT filtered info? I agree with Brian Norcross completely about the media.

[FireRat]

With that thing entering the eastern Caribbean, things may take a bit of a turn.

[Steve]

2010 has been an underrated season, but IMHO it continues to deliver. People were downing on it before the season even started. There turns out to have been some pretty good ideas on the overall number of storms. I mean, hell, we're at 19/T. That's nuts in any season but NHC, Bastardi and CSU all played up the numbers and all are within the range of what we have seen so far. Ace is up to 147 and likely to head north of 160 if Tomas hits major status. Outside of the lack of major impacts on the United States, this will be a very interesting year to look back on. There were many strong impacts to the Islands, Mexico and Central America. The US got our fair share of tropical weather if not potent impacts. Most everyone from South Texas to Massachusetts got at least a squall come through, and there was plenty of inland flooding in the plains. I know we had several unclassified events here in SELA. And I was talking about that back in the summer and wondering on one of these threads whether the very organized yet weaker stuff we saw in the northern Gulf was in spite of other negative conditions where some were wondering what was wrong with the season. The organization of most of those weak systems (92L, 95L, Bonnie remnants, TD #5,) was uncanny and demonstrated that something was actually "right" with atmospheric conditions to have so many landfalling, closed low pressure systems even if at (sub)depression status. With a pending serious threat to Jamaica, two storms going at the end of October, you have to wonder where the season is going to end up. It's not staggering, but 2 or 3 more named storms will put the season in rare company.

Also, for my money nobody on this forum had a better handle on the season overall than KWT. A lot of us had some great ideas (along with some not so great ones), but he has been all over the timing, potential ACE, trouble spots and risk areas. He had the La Nina influence figured out better than anyone else on the site.

[dwsqos2]

Hmm...it's now Nov. 1, and there have been no major 'canes and are no major 'canes on the horizon. My excellent call may be vindicated.

[Florida1118]

Hmm...it's now Nov. 1, and there have been no major 'canes and are no major 'canes on the horizon. My excellent call may be vindicated.

What was your call?