ATL : EX TOMAS - Discussion

[amich]

Thanks! I'll keep checking the news sites.

Stay safe and keep us informed!

Thanks, will do as much as possible!

[fci]

Thank you Sandy for the clarification. Nobody is perfect.

I noticed the error because HenkL wrote in Tomás' RECON thread that the next flight leaves tomorrow at 09z and then went to the NHC website to verify. I think the NHC wasn't expecting Tomás to intensify this fast.

This would be a rare time where the NHC were the ones caught by surprise at the quick ramp up of this system. This has been looking pretty amazing all day and since last night!

[Vortex]

La nina and another west runner??? The big question is how far west and does tomas make the full connection????

[Ivanhater]

...ALTHOUGH THE FIRST 12-24 HOURS OF THE TRACK
FORECAST HAVE BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH AS AN ARTIFACT OF
THE REFORMATION OF THE CENTER. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND GFDL ALL
SUPPORT A RELATIVELY STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE GREATER
ANTILLES AND SHOW TOMAS MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THESE ARE USUALLY THE MOST
TRUSTWORTHY OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
FAVORS THEIR SCENARIO...LYING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.

[fci]

I don't buy that compromise track between models that don't even develop it. I think it's going right of the NHC track, probably toward Haiti/DR.

Yeah, this track is well west of what was anticipated. No sharp turn shown at all and I don't remember seeing any forecast of southwest of Jamaica. Could Tomas miss the turn and just ride West or SW into CA?

[gatorcane]

Westward-ho it goes. The nhc doesn't even mention a turn to the north (yet).

But I do think we will see the track start bending more right. I just do not see how this could impact Florida.

A very deep system is bound to feel the big eastern conus trough

[hurricaneCW]

I really hope this doesn't head for Haiti, they've been through enough, a strong hit on them would be disastrous.

[gatorcane]

I wonder if Tomas as may "pump on the ridge"?

This has all of the makings of the strongest system we have had all season this close to the islands

[Vortex]

Earlier in the day the in-house forecast had been much further to the right than the first advisory....I thought there would be somewhat of a correction on the 11pm favoring back right but that's not the case...it should be interesting to see how the ECM/UKMET/GFDL 00z package plays out...

[gatorcane]

Earlier in the day the in-house forecast had been much further to the right than the first advisory....I thought there would be somewhat of a correction on the 11pm favoring back right but that's not the case...it should be interesting to see how the ECM/UKMET/GFDL 00z package plays out...

Keep in mind the nhc is closely following the gfdl on track. It sure seems like they favor that model

To be honest I think the gfs has it right. The euro is too far west as it keeps the system weak. So does the gfdl

[Vortex]

245Z sat image...getting close to take off...CDO should be in the works over the next 2-4 hours...




http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

[Vortex]

radar continues to improve and the beginning of the circulation is just now coming into view ESE of barbados...






http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... SAIC2.html

[Sanibel]

I can't believe we are dealing with this point of origin, track, and intensity in Late October/Early November.

[cycloneye]

I can only say wow!

[gatorcane]

Is it aug. 29th or oct. 29th?

[HURAKAN]

Barbados : 11:32 pm

from the ENE (060 degrees) at 24 MPH (21 KT) gusting to 58 MPH (50 KT)

[Cyclone1]

It just occurred to me that it's possible we'll have a November major hurricane. Those are rare.

[boca]

I'll be surprised if this makes it to 80w

[Vortex]

center showing up on radar now..looks like the core will go over or just south of barbados...they may get the worst of tomas over the next 3-8 hours..

[chrisjslucia]

Sorry guys, having trouble thinking about where Tomas is heading for after here, just wondering how strong it will be when it passes tomorrow.
This is the weekend of Jounen Kweyol in St Lucia, one of the most popular events of the year, celebrating Creole culture. As Looshans love to party, and live in a country blessed with an exceptionally minimal record of severe weather, people are generally assuming they might have to celebrate in a bit of rain. There is little sense of people preparing for a storm, let alone a hurricane. No queues for petrol, no mass shopping for water and tins in the supermarket.

That the warnings for the country have emerged less than 24 hours before Tomas is due really does make one wonder why the NHC did not name this storm earlier, given it has been showing its potential for days. Anyway, tomorrow we will be on the northern periphery of a hurricane - unless the forecasts continue to show a storm track edging north, as has been the case for the past few hours. For Grenada, St Vincent and St Lucia and probably Barbados as well, the next 12 to 24 hours are going to be tough. We are already getting short sharp squalls but it is eerily like the calm before the storm.

Thanks to everyone here for flagging up the emergence of Tomas, as otherwise we would have had virtually no warning of this system.