ATL : TOMAS - Models

[HURAKAN]

GFS 4 days ago. I saved this image and posted in facebook. Great job by the model

[boca]

How can we be totally sure Tomas won't affect Florida if the trough pulls out which of course is a timing issue and high pressure builds back in.It might not make that sharpe right turn towards DR.Things can change.

[Ivanhater]

How can we be totally sure Tomas won't affect Florida if the trough pulls out which of course is a timing issue and high pressure builds back in.It might not make that sharpe right turn towards DR.Things can change.

Missing the trough isn't the likely scenario, but it is still on the table.

[boca]

How can we be totally sure Tomas won't affect Florida if the trough pulls out which of course is a timing issue and high pressure builds back in.It might not make that sharpe right turn towards DR.Things can change.

Missing the trough isn't the likely scenario, but it is still on the table.

I agree with ya.

[Blown Away]

Is the the EURO the only model not recurving Tomas?

[Ivanhater]

Is the the EURO the only model not recurving Tomas?

The Euro and GFDL do not recurve.

[Vortex]

nor does the UKMET...

12Z loop...due west at the end of the run...



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... tLoop.html

[Dean4Storms]

How can we be totally sure Tomas won't affect Florida if the trough pulls out which of course is a timing issue and high pressure builds back in.It might not make that sharpe right turn towards DR.Things can change.

If it misses the trough it then you have to doubt it ever threatens FL. as well. Behind this trough will be a large CONUS ridge with lots of cool and dry air descending all the way through FL. I would suspect increasingly hostile UL winds to affect it in the central Carib. and a push westward toward CA.

[Ivanhater]

How can we be totally sure Tomas won't affect Florida if the trough pulls out which of course is a timing issue and high pressure builds back in.It might not make that sharpe right turn towards DR.Things can change.

If it misses the trough it then you have to doubt it ever threatens FL. as well. Behind this trough will be a large CONUS ridge with lots of cool and dry air descending all the way through FL. I would suspect increasingly hostile UL winds to affect it in the central Carib. and a push westward toward CA.

The Euro misses the trough and continues to deepen it as it moves SW.

GFDL as well.

[Vortex]

while it more than likely will make the connection more times than not past November storms are riddled with loops, twists and turns given the progressive nature of the atmoshphere this time of year....

[fci]

If this was September, I would be a whole lot more concerned although given the anticipated size and strength of Tomas; I will be diligently watching UNTIL he turns or barrels into CA.

[gatorcane]

The euro is not as progressive with the long-wave pattern as the gfs. I noticed the cut-off low is still back over Mexico 7 days from now.

[gatorcane]

Very strong 500MB ridge at 54 hours per the 00Z GFS:

That will steer it westward through the Southern Caribbean Sea.

[gatorcane]

114 hours, heading due west, but slowing down

[shah8]

Hmm, doesn't that image suggest a great deal of strengthening for some of the way?

edit, was talking about the 54hr image.

[KWT]

GFS in the end takes this system into DR but way to close to Haiti and they'd undoubtably get lots of rain and wind from it if that were to occur...

[LarryWx]

How can we be totally sure Tomas won't affect Florida if the trough pulls out which of course is a timing issue and high pressure builds back in.It might not make that sharpe right turn towards DR.Things can change.

If it misses the trough it then you have to doubt it ever threatens FL. as well. Behind this trough will be a large CONUS ridge with lots of cool and dry air descending all the way through FL. I would suspect increasingly hostile UL winds to affect it in the central Carib. and a push westward toward CA.

Climo says that the chances of a US landfall are minute. Since 1851, there is not a single storm on record that was first designated a TC east of 60W after 10/9 that went on to make landfall in the contiguous 48 of the U.S. The latest developer occurred in 1887 (#13) on 10/9. Since Tomas was designated on 10/29, it would be 20 days later than the latest on record that formed east of 60W if it were to somehow hit the lower 48. If I were in FL, I wouldn't be worried/hopeful (depending on one's perspective).

[cycloneye]

12z Tropical Models

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 301322
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1322 UTC SAT OCT 30 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE TOMAS (AL212010) 20101030 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        101030  1200   101031  0000   101031  1200   101101  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.1N  60.1W   14.1N  62.9W   14.9N  65.9W   15.7N  68.9W
BAMD    13.1N  60.1W   14.0N  62.1W   14.8N  63.9W   15.8N  65.6W
BAMM    13.1N  60.1W   13.8N  62.2W   14.4N  64.3W   15.0N  66.6W
LBAR    13.1N  60.1W   14.7N  61.8W   16.1N  63.3W   17.3N  64.3W
SHIP        65KTS          75KTS          80KTS          81KTS
DSHP        65KTS          75KTS          80KTS          81KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        101101  1200   101102  1200   101103  1200   101104  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.2N  71.9W   16.3N  76.8W   15.2N  79.8W   13.2N  79.3W
BAMD    16.6N  67.2W   17.7N  69.4W   19.1N  69.1W   21.0N  66.3W
BAMM    15.5N  68.8W   16.0N  72.6W   16.1N  75.0W   15.3N  75.6W
LBAR    18.0N  64.8W   17.9N  64.7W   17.5N  63.5W   17.7N  61.9W
SHIP        80KTS          77KTS          70KTS          75KTS
DSHP        80KTS          77KTS          70KTS          75KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  13.1N LONCUR =  60.1W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR =  13KT
LATM12 =  11.9N LONM12 =  57.8W DIRM12 = 313DEG SPDM12 =  14KT
LATM24 =  10.0N LONM24 =  55.3W
WNDCUR =   65KT RMAXWD =   20NM WNDM12 =   50KT
CENPRS =  993MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD =  225NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =  150NM RD34SE =   80NM RD34SW =   50NM RD34NW =  90NM
 


[AdamFirst]

GFS 150HR


Landfall into Dominican Republic heading north

192HR

Riding out to the graveyard on huge Nor'easter looking trough

[AdamFirst]

CMC 114HR



Landfall in Jamacia, going north