ATL : EX TOMAS - Discussion

[dwsqos2]

There is a dropsonde that suggests that this is a 'cane.

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[HURAKAN]

Latest

[cycloneye]

Decoded second VDM:

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 30th day of the month at 13:01Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Storm Number & Year: 21L in 2010
Storm Name: Tomas (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 10
A. Time of Center Fix: 30th day of the month at 12:31:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 13°07'N 60°12'W (13.1167N 60.2W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 40 miles (64 km) to the W (272°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 3,044m (9,987ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 65kts (~ 74.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the NE/ENE (56°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 143° at 62kts (From the SE at ~ 71.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 28 nautical miles (32 statute miles) to the NE (52°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 995mb (29.38 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,047m (9,997ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,047m (9,997ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 2°C (36°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character (Undecoded): RAGGED
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 50 nautical miles (58 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 66kts (~ 76.0mph) in the east quadrant at 11:47:10Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
SLP EXTRAP FROM DROPSONDE
NOT A SOLID EYEWALL FIXED CTR NEAR END OF A SPIRAL IN THE EYE AREA
MAX SFC WINDS WELL WITHIN THE RADAR CENTER
SONDE RELEASED NEAR MAX SFMR WINDS RECORDED 72 KTS AT SFC

[Vortex]

based on that VDM almost certainly Hurricane Tomas for the 11am package

[amich]

I will be glad to have infos from St Lucia and St Vincent. Expat2carib from Dominica please don't forget to keep us informed we appreciate.

So far it is barely raining here (I'm on the windward side of St. Vincent), but the wind is picking up. Still have our windows open so far.

If you want to hear specific updates, you can listen to the radio at http://www.nbcsvg.com

[cycloneye]

Hurricane at 11 AM EDT

12z Best Track increases intensity to 65kts.

AL, 21, 2010103012, , BEST, 0, 131N, 601W, 65, 993, HU
ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[expat2carib]

I will be glad to have infos from St Lucia and St Vincent. Expat2carib from Dominica please don't forget to keep us informed we appreciate.

Very heavy winds here. Dark and very heavy gusts. No thunder, lightning and very little rain here on the north eastern St. Lucia.

I'll try to report. The shore power is down but my wind turbine is doing the job now and one or another way the wifi is still working. The 2 cats and wife are doing fine. We are going to sit it out on the boat which is well secured between two floating docks.

[Gustywind]

I will be glad to have infos from St Lucia and St Vincent. Expat2carib from Dominica please don't forget to keep us informed we appreciate.

Very heavy winds here. Dark and very heavy gusts. No thunder, lightning and very little rain here on the north eastern St. Lucia.

I'll try to report. The shore power is down but my wind turbine is doing the job now and one or another way the wifi is still working. The 2 cats and wife are doing fine. We are going to sit it out on the boat which is well secured between two floating docks.

Thanks my friend .

[abajan]

Soon after I shut down my computer, the power went. The lights had been flickering all morning and the computer kept restarting itself. So, to save it from possible damage, I thought it wise to shut it down. (The UPS surge suppressor doesn’t work properly.) Anyway, thankfully the power is back.

My location had gusty winds and some rain all night but nothing major. The real action started around daybreak when we had unbelievably strong winds from the SE — by my estimation, much higher than what was being recorded at our airport — and lots of almost horizontal rainfall. (Just being technical here because if it was totally horizontal, it wouldn’t fall, would it! ) When I started typing this report, the winds had eased considerably but they seem to be picking up again. Hopefully they don’t get as strong as they were earlier but WV satellite imagery seems to show a feeder band developing about 200 miles to our east.

Save for my dear lime tree, my property hasn't sustained any damage that I know of but I will be able to confirm that when the all clear is issued later and I can carry out a proper survey.

Well, that’s it for now. To keep abreast of what’s happening here, below are a couple of links to live radio streams:

Voice of Barbados (VOB 92.9 FM)
http://vob929.ocmnet.net/voblive.html

Quality Radio (Q100.7 FM)
http://www.cbc.bb/index.php?option=com_ ... &Itemid=18

Edited to add TV link below but I haven’t been able to view anything there
http://www.cbc.bb/index.php?option=com_ ... &Itemid=27

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Vortex]

By tonight we should be in RI mode...

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Vortex]

center beginning to tighten per radar...Hi res vis also indicating a developing eye...more than likely it will fill later today with the formation of a CDO and once thats complete we should jump to major status rather quickly...I'd say tomorrow morning...

[HURAKAN]

St. Lucia:

Wind from the ENE (070 degrees) at 39 MPH (34 KT) gusting to 53 MPH (46 KT)

[hurricaneCW]

It's a bit raggedy looking this morning, I'm thinking some of that inflow is being disrupted due to SA in close proximity.

[Vortex]

Btw, ECM operational and ensembles keep tomas over the central/western carribean...highly unlikely but worth noting since its been advertising this run to run...GFS operational makes the connection but the ensembles also leave it behind....Gota love the tropics...

[CrazyC83]

Based on the dropsonde, I would go 70 kt for the intensity.

[cycloneye]

It's a bit raggedy looking this morning, I'm thinking some of that inflow is being disrupted due to SA in close proximity.

I think is fairly far away from SA.If it were around 10-11N,then yes.

[chrisjslucia]

Winds in the north of St Lucia from the north/north west, gusting up to around 50mph. The south of the country - besides the channel between here and St Vincent and the area of the international airport - is reporting roof damage, power cables down already.
Not that much rain as yet - well it's raining hard but not STORM rain, but that will come soon enough. Not sure when the winds will change but not looking forward to the east / ese winds when they come! Martinique must be getting the same as my area right now, but it has disappeared from view!

[Olivier_Madinina]

Martinique (local time)

Wind (kt)



Rain (mm in last 24h)