Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

WTNT31 KNHC 301432
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 AM AST SAT OCT 30 2010

...TWELFTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON BEARING DOWN ON ST. LUCIA
AND ST. VINCENT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 60.7W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSE OF ST. LUCIA
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM E OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WARNING
WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BARBADOS

[abajan]

Wishing everyone in Tomas path to keep safe and hoping for no loss of life, Hope abajan is ok and can update us as soon as power restored, just read news article that says powerlines down, roofs off, trees uprooted mostly on south side of island, no loss of life reported so far. http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKTRE69T13Q20101030

One thing for sure this season has been wake up call for allot of ppl in Belize, allot more ppl paying attention to invests now after so many have gone from nada to TS in hours, and speeded travel up, its caught many with their pants down - both in taking storms seriously & that leassons learned from H.Iris have been forgotten, incl areas in Belize like Belmopan (considered to far inland to be threatened by a hurricane) building codes were not adehered too for last 10 years, 70% of the damaged homes in that area were not built to the standards put in place when Belmopan was first established following H. Hatti, complacency is a dangerous commodity.

Your concern is much appreciated, BZSTORM and all others who have expressed similar sentiments. Except for the the loss of a lime tree, everything is fine here. My report on things so far can be found in the ATL : TOMAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion thread on page 32.

[msbee]

glad all is OK with you, abajan
sounds like Barbados got quite sum damage though.

There are some reports here from St. Lucia:

http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/current/stlucia.shtml

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1043 AM AST SAT OCT 30 2010

.UPDATE...AT 11 AM AST...TROPICAL STORM TOMAS HAS BEEN UPGRADED BY
THE NHC AND IS NOW A HURRICANE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN LATEST
TRACK REASONING. EXPECTED TO PASS BETWEEN 150-200 MILES SOUTH OF
PUERTO RICO TOMORROW INTO MONDAY. MADE SOME CHANGES TO FORECAST
GRIDS TO POPS...SKY COVER AND PRECIPITATION TO ADJUST WEATHER WITH
NEW FORECAST. ALTHOUGH RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FIRST NEAR THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL...AND SOUTHWEST...WINDS ARE VERY LIGHT AT THE
SURFACE...AND WINDS ABOVE 10K FEET ARE SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTERLY.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH
18Z ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. BRIEF MVFR CONDS ACROSS TJPS AND TJMZ
FROM 30/16Z-30/20Z...AND ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS TJSJ. SHRAS AND TSRA
ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE TOMAS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT TNCM AND
TKPK AFT 30/23Z...AND SPREAD ACROSS THE VI BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

[cycloneye]

WTNT31 KNHC 301737
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE TOMAS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
200 PM AST SAT OCT 30 2010

...TOMAS LASHING ST. LUCIA AND ST. VINCENT WITH STRONG WINDS
AND HEAVY RAINS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 61.0W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM NE OF ST. VINCENT
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM S OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR TRINIDAD.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* DOMINICA
* TOBAGO
* GRENADA

[Gustywind]

[msbee]

Looks ferocious!

[weatherSnoop]

Quite the blow up on the east side. Looks like St Lucia's ride will get a little more wild. Hoping for the best for all in the path of Tomas.

[Gustywind]

Looks ferocious!

Absolutely Barabara ! Looks like the worst is to come during the next couple of hours. All the nasty convection is well east and NE of the presumed center, so all the Windwards even the southern Leewards should have to deal with these strong spiral bands tonight but surely tommorow as TOMAS continue to organize fairly well and moves very slowly 19 km/H! Not good news at all for the EC !

[cycloneye]

Good news for Abajan in Barbados as TS warning was discontinued.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
500 PM AST SAT OCT 30 2010

...TOMAS CONTINUES TO LASH ST. LUCIA AND ST. VINCENT WITH STRONG
WINDS...HEAVY RAINS...AND BATTERING SURF CONDITIONS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 61.4W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SW OF ST. LUCIA
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM NW OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR BARBADOS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICA
* TOBAGO
* GRENADA

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/curre ... cent.shtml

- Darkness falls as tomas continues to pumel us
By Haniff Sutherland <hanniff at gmail.com>
Date: Sat, 30 Oct 2010 18:09:51 -0400

It is with a heavy heart I report on conditions in st vincent, many
homes have lost their roofs, my sister in Georgetown on the north
eastern side lost her roof, this was a well built house; I did not
expect this, across the island, report are coming in of downed
telephone lines, power is off. About 50 houses have lost their roofs.
unconfirmed reports are that a stone fell on a house in otley hall
with 3 persons in it. and a house missing in green hill. and the cargo
ship sting ray is about to run ashore in salt pond.
A yacht may also be experiencing trouble off cane garden point. St
Vincent will take a long time to recover from this one.

[msbee]

I just read that Gusty
sad..
those islands are getting slammed by Tomas

[abajan]

Good news for Abajan in Barbados as TS warning was discontinued ...

Yes, that is good news indeed. The only problem is that there's a ton of rain headed our way, as recent satellite imagery shows and we’re now officially under a flood warning.

As I had previously mentioned, the rainfall pattern this October has been most unusual. The first few days were very wet and then it was very dry in the middle and now it’s ending very wet! Today our airport recorded over 5.7 inches of rain during the 12 hour period ending at 6:00 p.m. and we could easily see an additional 4 to 5 inches tonight. IMO it is not out of the realm of possibility that 2010 may turn out to be the wettest year ever recorded in Barbados.

[msbee]

abajan
It looks like Tomas has a tail which is going to be bringing you a lot of rain

[abajan]

abajan
It looks like Tomas has a tail which is going to be bringing you a lot of rain

Yep. As a matter of fact, it’s raining quite a bit right now and taking into account the amount of rain we’ve already had last night and today, it won’t be surprising to hear of severe flooding island wide by daybreak because the ground is saturated.

[Gustywind]

I just read that Gusty
sad..
those islands are getting slammed by Tomas

that's incredible Barbara i'm KO reading things like that!!!

[cycloneye]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE TOMAS LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
545 PM AST SAT OCT 30 2010

...HURRICANE TOMAS TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO THE LOCAL
OFF SHORE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MONA
AND ANEGADA PASSAGES SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT OFFERS GUIDANCE AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOR
MARINERS...AS WELL AS OTHER MARINE INTERESTS...ALONG ALL COASTAL
WATER LEGS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS COASTAL
WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS COASTAL
WATERS.

PLEASE CHECK THE LATEST PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS FOR DETAILED
INFORMATION ABOUT ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.

.STORM INFORMATION...AT 5 PM AST...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TOMAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5N...LONGITUDE 61.4W. THIS WAS ABOUT 400
NAUTICAL MILES SOUTHEAST OF PONCE PR...OR ABOUT 310 NAUTICAL
MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAINT CROIX VI. PRESENT MOVEMENT WAS TO THE
WEST NORTHWEST AT 9 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 KNOTS.


.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
HURRICANE TOMAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS...BRINGING SQUALLY
WEATHER WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS LIKELY ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS. IN ADDITION...
ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE ASSOCIATED
RAIN BANDS.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT AND WELL SECURED. CLOSELY
MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS FOR
OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST.

[cycloneye]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE TOMAS LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
829 PM AST SAT OCT 30 2010

...HURRICANE TOMAS EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO
THE LOCAL OFF SHORE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE MONA AND ANEGADA PASSAGES SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT OFFERS GUIDANCE AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOR
MARINERS...AS WELL AS OTHER MARINE INTERESTS...ALONG ALL COASTAL
WATER LEGS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS COASTAL
WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE LOCAL OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE MONA AND ANEGADA PASSAGES.

PLEASE CHECK THE LATEST PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS FOR DETAILED
INFORMATION ABOUT ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 8 PM AST...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TOMAS WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.5N AND LONGITUDE 61.7W. THIS IS ABOUT 290 NAUTICAL
MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAINT CROIX...OR ABOUT 380 NAUTICAL MILES
SOUTHEAST OF PONCE. TOMAS IS CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST
NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS...WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80
KNOTS.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
HURRICANE TOMAS WILL CONTINUE TRACK WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BRINGING
SQUALLY WEATHER WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS LIKELY ACROSS THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS AND
PASSAGES. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE ASSOCIATED RAIN BANDS.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT AND WELL SECURED. CLOSELY
MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS FOR
OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN SAN JUAN AROUND 1100 PM AST...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

AMZ722-732-741-010030-
/O.CON.TJSJ.TR.W.0002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-
CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-
MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-
829 PM AST SAT OCT 30 2010

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
NONE.

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME REMAINS NEAR
57 PERCENT.

...WINDS AND SEAS...
THE LATEST AREA FORECAST IS FOR MAXIMUM WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS. IN ADDITION...MAXIMUM SEAS OF 14 TO 18
FEET ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS AND PASSAGES.

[FireBird]

Hi folks, all is well in TnT. The tail of Tomas is certainly worth watching though, and I am very concerned for Barbados.
Our news reports tonight contained interviews with several authorities and video coverage from Barbados. Things are bad, especially since the islanders really were not as prepared as they would have liked to have been - based on word from Kamar Jordan, a respected journalist. Trees uprooted, road blocked, power outages, lost roofs, etc. And with some intense rainfall on the way, it looks like Barbados is in for more flooding.
As for St. Vincent, the Prime Minister, Dr. Gonsalves indicated that things were bad there as well. 100 homes reported to have lost their roofs, as at 7pm. Over 500 persons in shelters across the islands, especially in Mustique. Their Works Ministry is at the ready to clear debris and repair homes when conditions improve. We didn't get footage but I guess the light of day tomorrow will also us to get an idea of Tomas' wrath.