ATL : EX TOMAS - Discussion

HurricaneStriker · #781 Postby **HurricaneStriker** » Sat Oct 30, 2010 5:13 pm

snowcane180 wrote:The NHC forecast winds are always wrong. lol! They are either to high or to low. In most cases to low.

Are you saying Tomas will be more powerful than what the NHC says?

margiek · #782 Postby **margiek** » Sat Oct 30, 2010 5:13 pm

Looking at the radar loop, appears that St. Lucia and St. Vincent really got hammered.

During periods of recon it is doubtful that intensity was lowballed. With two Dvorak T4.0 estimates and no recent recon there is no way intensity could have been increased to 70 or 75 kt for 21Z unless there were ground reports; the discussion noted the intensity was low and was being held at 65 kt. As soon as ground reports were recieved the special advisory was issued from a few minutes ago (increasing to 80 kt).

I tihnk this one could have been started earlier and the TCR might reflect that.

HurricaneStriker · #783 Postby **HurricaneStriker** » Sat Oct 30, 2010 5:16 pm

Wait, is this an old statement? I can't tell AST time.

From the NHC

..OBSERVATIONS FROM ST. LUCIA INDICATE THAT TOMAS HAS STRENGTHENED...

:00 PM AST Sat Oct 30
Location: 13.5°N 61.6°W
Max sustained: 90 mph
Moving: WNW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 982 mb

Shuriken · #784 Postby **Shuriken** » Sat Oct 30, 2010 5:17 pm

HurricaneStriker wrote:
snowcane180 wrote:The NHC forecast winds are always wrong. lol! They are either to high or to low. In most cases to low.
Are you saying Tomas will be more powerful than what the NHC says?

Given that the 6PM special just raised it to 80kts, and it doesn't even have a cleared-out eye yet on satellite, and the NHC's 120hr forecase is still for 100kts, I think it's safe to say at this point that Tomas is being (IMO imprudently given the nature of WNW-tracking CAR-canes) low-balled.

snowcane180 · #785 Postby **snowcane180** » Sat Oct 30, 2010 5:17 pm

Yeah I think it will be more powerful than that 115mph. More like 135 or at most 150

KWT · #786 Postby **KWT** » Sat Oct 30, 2010 5:18 pm

During the afternoon looked like it had olevelled off looking at the microwave imagery and the poor organisation of the eyewall (despite what radar suggests) but since then the convective ball has developed so maybe slow strengthening will continue, for now I think westerly shear is still a smidge high for quick strengthening...BUT strengthening very likely IS happening...and the ball of convection is a good hint of that.

Gustywind · #787 Postby **Gustywind** » Sat Oct 30, 2010 5:21 pm

http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/curre ... cent.shtml
- Darkness falls as tomas continues to pumel us
By Haniff Sutherland <hanniff at gmail.com>
Date: Sat, 30 Oct 2010 18:09:51 -0400

It is with a heavy heart I report on conditions in st vincent, many
homes have lost their roofs, my sister in Georgetown on the north
eastern side lost her roof, this was a well built house; I did not
expect this, across the island, report are coming in of downed
telephone lines, power is off. About 50 houses have lost their roofs.
unconfirmed reports are that a stone fell on a house in otley hall
with 3 persons in it. and a house missing in green hill. and the cargo
ship sting ray is about to run ashore in salt pond.
A yacht may also be experiencing trouble off cane garden point. St
Vincent will take a long time to recover from this one.

snowcane180 · #788 Postby **snowcane180** » Sat Oct 30, 2010 5:27 pm

Isnt this only a cat 1

HurricaneStriker · #789 Postby **HurricaneStriker** » Sat Oct 30, 2010 5:28 pm

snowcane180 wrote:Isnt this only a cat 1

Yes, but soon enough it'll be a cat 2, than 3, and then 4....

#790 Postby **srainhoutx** » Sat Oct 30, 2010 5:30 pm

HurricaneStriker · #791 Postby **HurricaneStriker** » Sat Oct 30, 2010 5:32 pm

So MIMIC still keeps Tomas at 65 kts?

#792 Postby **ozonepete** » Sat Oct 30, 2010 5:32 pm

Gustywind wrote::( http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/curre ... cent.shtml
- Darkness falls as tomas continues to pumel us
By Haniff Sutherland <hanniff at gmail.com>
Date: Sat, 30 Oct 2010 18:09:51 -0400

It is with a heavy heart I report on conditions in st vincent, many
homes have lost their roofs, my sister in Georgetown on the north
eastern side lost her roof, this was a well built house; I did not
expect this, across the island, report are coming in of downed
telephone lines, power is off. About 50 houses have lost their roofs.
unconfirmed reports are that a stone fell on a house in otley hall
with 3 persons in it. and a house missing in green hill. and the cargo
ship sting ray is about to run ashore in salt pond.
A yacht may also be experiencing trouble off cane garden point. St
Vincent will take a long time to recover from this one.

OMG. I'm so sorry to hear that. Please hang in and stay safe. Be really watchful and careful for unsafe areas (debris piles with nails, etc.) when you go out, especially as it's getting dark.

KWT · #793 Postby **KWT** » Sat Oct 30, 2010 5:35 pm

Well offically its now upto 80kts, surface reports suggests 80kts and given St.Lucia was perfectly placed for the highest winds there is zero reason to doubt they are not valid...

Its a little stronger then I though but then again the presentation has improved a decent amount despite westerly shear being present, even if its not really preventing strengthening, just slowing the possible rate.

Should become our next and probably final Major Hurricane of the season.

snowcane180 · #794 Postby **snowcane180** » Sat Oct 30, 2010 5:40 pm

I think we could see another major or TWO in November!

HurricaneStriker · #795 Postby **HurricaneStriker** » Sat Oct 30, 2010 5:42 pm

St. Lucia and Martinique are getting a lucky break now. An extremely powerful batch of rain is just passing between them.

KWT · #796 Postby **KWT** » Sat Oct 30, 2010 5:43 pm

The Microwave loop above shows perfectly how the eyewall formed again right as the eye passed close to St.Lucia, no wonder they got clobbered by 70-80kts winds...

#797 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Oct 30, 2010 5:46 pm

Latest

HurricaneStriker · #798 Postby **HurricaneStriker** » Sat Oct 30, 2010 5:49 pm

HURAKAN wrote:

Latest

Wow. That is just amazing. Look at the eastern half of Tomas and all that Crimson.

KWT · #799 Postby **KWT** » Sat Oct 30, 2010 5:51 pm

Thanks Hurakan, that just shows thqat the inner structure has markedly improved in the last 4-6hrs after it was looking a little on rough side but now the eyewall is probably 75% complete and quiter strong on the northern side....

HurricaneStriker · #800 Postby **HurricaneStriker** » Sat Oct 30, 2010 5:53 pm

Just to keep everyone on the same pace:

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