ATL : TOMAS - Models

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Vortex
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#121 Postby Vortex » Sat Oct 30, 2010 5:22 pm

all the usual suspects on board for the grand finale :wink: :uarrow:
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#122 Postby Vortex » Sat Oct 30, 2010 5:26 pm

It will be interesting to watch the 2 heavy weights(GFS vs ECM) battle this out...Big differences in the longer range...
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#123 Postby KWT » Sat Oct 30, 2010 5:32 pm

The GFS op run is quite abit slower then it has been though, not reaching the Caribbean Islands before day 6 now and quite a fe of the ensemble members are slower then that from the looks of things...
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#124 Postby Kyuubi » Sat Oct 30, 2010 5:38 pm

I'm guessing that with the steering currents collapsing on days 4 or 5 is the reason why the models are virtually all over the place at that point?
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#125 Postby caneman » Sat Oct 30, 2010 6:14 pm

I'm fairly certain it won't come to FLorida too but I was also fairly certain the last storm would come to Florida and well we know what happened there so I'll take a wait and see approach.
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#126 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Sat Oct 30, 2010 6:22 pm

Tomas is going to be such an awesome storm to watch. Yeah I agree with you there Ivan this looks like a Late August/Early September storm.

Isn't now a good a time as any to talk about climatology? :lol: It's not quite November yet...
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Re:

#127 Postby boca » Sat Oct 30, 2010 6:27 pm

caneman wrote:I'm fairly certain it won't come to FLorida too but I was also fairly certain the last storm would come to Florida and well we know what happened there so I'll take a wait and see approach.


according to all the NWS bureaus around the state. A strong front will pass thru the Florida area late next week so that should keep Tomas away from us.Not a slam dunk but 99.9% sure of it.0.01% unsure.
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Models

#128 Postby gatorcane » Sat Oct 30, 2010 6:36 pm

Ivanhater wrote:Yep..new Euro still does not recurve and leaves a strengthening hurricane in the Caribbean

Image


Interesting. Why does the euro not show a stronger system initially though?
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Models

#129 Postby boca » Sat Oct 30, 2010 6:39 pm

gatorcane wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:Yep..new Euro still does not recurve and leaves a strengthening hurricane in the Caribbean

Image


Interesting. Why does the euro not show a stronger system initially though?


Has the Euro been right this year I know they did well last year.I think the GFS has got them this year so far.
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#130 Postby KWT » Sat Oct 30, 2010 6:40 pm

Thats the question Gatorcane, whilst it does look like steering currejnts may slacken I think the ECM probably is underestimating how strong Tomas gets in the short term and thus it'll probably underdo the latitude gain until the upper ridge shunts the system back westwards.

Looking more and more like a Hazel track in the Caribbean...
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Models

#131 Postby caneman » Sat Oct 30, 2010 6:56 pm

I do agree that GFS has outperformed the Euro this year but you can't discount the possibility of the Euro possibly being right. Any storm possibly sitting below Cuba is worth paying attention to.
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#132 Postby Vortmax1 » Sat Oct 30, 2010 7:02 pm

What's up with the ECMWF y'all?
It's been a very good boy for a long time...and it is still cutting Tomas off in the Carib!


Image
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#133 Postby gatorcane » Sat Oct 30, 2010 7:05 pm

Trough is not deep enough to pick it up...so it keeps moving west or westnorthwest towards the western caribbean
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#134 Postby snowcane180 » Sat Oct 30, 2010 7:07 pm

Didnt hurricane hazel make landfall in the U.s.a? I see post that say this look like a hazel track
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#135 Postby Vortmax1 » Sat Oct 30, 2010 7:08 pm

Trough is not deep enough to pick it up...so it keeps moving west or westnorthwest towards the western caribbean


Yep...I realize that.
But there doesn't seem to be much agreement with that forecast does there?
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#136 Postby Vortmax1 » Sat Oct 30, 2010 7:10 pm

Actually...NO agreement!


Image
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Re:

#137 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Oct 30, 2010 7:10 pm

Vortmax1 wrote:Trough is not deep enough to pick it up...so it keeps moving west or westnorthwest towards the western caribbean


Yep...I realize that.
But there doesn't seem to be much agreement with that forecast does there?


There is actually good agreement on the trough getting Tomas. We are discussing the outlier possibilities.
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Re:

#138 Postby TheDreamTraveler » Sat Oct 30, 2010 7:15 pm

Vortmax1 wrote:Actually...NO agreement!


Image


Wow at the TVCN going straight into Haiti. That's pretty chilling.
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#139 Postby Vortmax1 » Sat Oct 30, 2010 7:15 pm

We are discussing the outlier possibilities.



I'm not discussing any outlier here.
The ECM is saying something I need to hear.
But the forecast is 10 days out and could change...but the ECM is still hanging tough with the cut-off forecast!

Makes me think more than twice.....
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Re:

#140 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Oct 30, 2010 7:16 pm

Vortmax1 wrote:
We are discussing the outlier possibilities.



I'm not discussing any outlier here.
The ECM is saying something I need to hear.
But the forecast is 10 days out and could change...but the ECM is still hanging tough with the cut-off forecast!

Makes me think more than twice.....


The Euro IS the outlier.
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