ATL : TOMAS - Models

Vortmax1 · #141 Postby **Vortmax1** » Sat Oct 30, 2010 7:26 pm

The Euro IS the outlier.

OK Dog...that's what you say tonight.
I think we're going to have to deal with the ECM forecast soon enough!

#142 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sat Oct 30, 2010 7:35 pm

Vortmax1 wrote:
The Euro IS the outlier.

OK Dog...that's what you say tonight.
I think we're going to have to deal with the ECM forecast soon enough!

Do you have any support to back that up?

Vortmax1 · #143 Postby **Vortmax1** » Sat Oct 30, 2010 7:38 pm

Do you have any support to back that up?

No more support than you have in saying the trough will pick it up!

I mean really...there is NO support here!
Or all the models would track the same way man.

#144 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sat Oct 30, 2010 7:41 pm

Vortmax1 wrote:
Do you have any support to back that up?

No more support than you have in saying the trough will pick it up!

I mean really...there is NO support here!
Or all the models would track the same way man.

You obviously did not take the time to read my posts. I never said the trough will pick it up. I'm the one who was actually pointing out the outlier possibility of the Euro...but it is an outlier.

#145 Postby **fci** » Sat Oct 30, 2010 7:42 pm

When there is a monster storm in the Carib; no one can guarantee anything until they actually see it happen.

I totally trust what wxman57 says and the NHC; but will not rest easy until Tomas either completes its journey or dies.

Macrocane · #146 Postby **Macrocane** » Sat Oct 30, 2010 7:44 pm

Euro is an outlier indeed, it's a possibility but most of the models agree on the trough picking it up.

#147 Postby **Ntxw** » Sat Oct 30, 2010 7:44 pm

Euro or no euro, either way this is going to be a Caribbean problem for now...euro = likely CA, no Euro = the greater antilles...

#148 Postby **Vortex** » Sat Oct 30, 2010 7:45 pm

FWIW, latest BAMD run did an about face and I have no idea how it ends up in the mid-atlantic....I have not a clue......Anyone care to take a stab at it?

Vortmax1 · #149 Postby **Vortmax1** » Sat Oct 30, 2010 7:47 pm

You obviously did not take the time to read my posts. I never said the trough will pick it up. I'm the one who was actually pointing out the outlier possibility of the Euro...but it is an outlier.

And you would be right about that.
I obviously did not read back far enough to read what you said.

Sorry for that.

I'm a large fan of the ECM and have seen it forecast right more than wrong over the last many years.

Not to give faith in any model...but I think it has something to say regarding Tomas.

We're still in late fall/early winter in the CONUS...so forecasting these fronts are really hit or miss!

#150 Postby **Vortex** » Sat Oct 30, 2010 7:48 pm

I pointed that out because it was eerily similar to Hazel... :uarrow:

snowcane180 · #151 Postby **snowcane180** » Sat Oct 30, 2010 7:48 pm

Some intense hurricanes create their own path. I think this hurricane will travel through the carribean, not affect any landmasses and dissipate in the gulf

TheDreamTraveler · #152 Postby **TheDreamTraveler** » Sat Oct 30, 2010 7:49 pm

Vortex wrote:FWIW, latest BAMD run did an about face and I have no idea how it ends up in the mid-atlantic....I have not a clue......Anyone care to take a stab at it?

I just saw what you were talking about. The Bam models are usually really goofy. So I wouldn't pay much attention to it. Though I'm curious to see how it came up with that solution too.

#153 Postby **Vortex** » Sat Oct 30, 2010 7:51 pm

Vortmax1 wrote:
You obviously did not take the time to read my posts. I never said the trough will pick it up. I'm the one who was actually pointing out the outlier possibility of the Euro...but it is an outlier.

And you would be right about that.
I obviously did not read back far enough to read what you said.

Sorry for that.

I'm a large fan of the ECM and have seen it forecast right more than wrong over the last many years.

Not to give faith in any model...but I think it has something to say regarding Tomas.

We're still in late fall/early winter in the CONUS...so forecasting these fronts are really hit or miss!

Aside from it being the ECM(one of the best as we know) it has been very CONSISTENT in leaving tomas behind....having said that the GFS has been just as if not more consistent in making the full connection...One will cave in sooner or later....

#154 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Oct 30, 2010 7:52 pm

Vortmax1 · #155 Postby **Vortmax1** » Sat Oct 30, 2010 7:56 pm

the GFS has been just as if not more consistent in making the full connection...One will cave in sooner or later....

Yes...the GFS has been pretty solid on this particular storm!
But there's no agreement with the ECM!

Sorry guys...I have seen the failures of the GFS and the ECM...but rarely does the ECM fail!

I have lived in south Florida all my life. At this time of year it is difficult to believe there will be a cold front strong enough to yank a storm out of the Carib!

I'm going the other way for now.

snowcane180 · #156 Postby **snowcane180** » Sat Oct 30, 2010 7:56 pm

Have the Bam models ever been right???

#157 Postby **Vortex** » Sat Oct 30, 2010 7:59 pm

snowcane180 wrote:Have the Bam models ever been right???

from time to time they hit a homerun...interested in bamd as it would be expected to perform best given the "deep" nature of the storm....often there not very good with the long-term destination but at times decent in sniffing out trends...

caneman · #158 Postby **caneman** » Sat Oct 30, 2010 8:01 pm

Vortmax1 wrote:
the GFS has been just as if not more consistent in making the full connection...One will cave in sooner or later....

Yes...the GFS has been pretty solid on this particular storm!
But there's no agreement with the ECM!

Sorry guys...I have seen the failures of the GFS and the ECM...but rarely does the ECM fail!

I have lived in south Florida all my life. At this time of year it is difficult to believe there will be a cold front strong enough to yank a storm out of the Carib!

I'm going the other way for now.

ECM hasn't been that great this year. GFS has done an incredible job this year but who knows Euro could be right this time. At least worth paying attention to.

#159 Postby **Vortex** » Sat Oct 30, 2010 8:05 pm

For those that haven't seen the 12Z ECM...Here's the loop..

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... _loop.html

#160 Postby **Vortex** » Sat Oct 30, 2010 8:06 pm

For those that haven't seen the 12Z ECM...Here's the loop..

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... _loop.html

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