Caribbean - Central America Weather

[abajan]

... And with some intense rainfall on the way, it looks like Barbados is in for more flooding ...

Presently, it appears from satellite imagery that the intensity of the convection just east of Barbados is waning. Hopefully this trend continues throughout the night and we won't get nearly as much rain as was originally expected. Unfortunately though, the winds are starting to pick up again.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1010 PM AST SAT OCT 30 2010

.UPDATE...EXPECT BANDS OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE TOMAS
TO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE VI OVERNIGHT...AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. GENERALLY SQUALLY
WEATHER...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THESE
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY...WITH SLOWLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FROM EAST TO WEST AS WE WORK
OUR WAY INTO MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE LOCAL OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND SOUTHERN MOST PORTIONS OF
THE LOCAL PASSAGES THROUGH NOON MONDAY...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES NECESSARY TO INHERITED FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDS ACROSS ALL PR AND THE VI TAF SITES
THROUGH 31/06Z. TEMPO MVFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS TNCM
AND TKPK OVERNIGHT. SHRAS AND TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE TOMAS
WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT TISX AND TIST AFT 31/06Z...AND SPREAD ACROSS PR
BY SUNDAY MORNING. THEREFORE....TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO
25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW.

[BZSTORM]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Hope I did this right, Not wishing to detract from what Hurr. Tomas is currently doing to the islands but a friend who went out to assess the damage to reef after Hurr. Just posted this photo today, and I wanted to share this photo which shows the damage Hurr Richard inflicted on the reef before making landfall in Belize. Gallows point reef is approx 12 miles east of Belize City. Reef damage helps to give picture of how strong wave action was to snap the tops of the coral off.

[FireBird]

Unfortunately though, the winds are starting to pick up again.[/quote]
Hey Abajan, i just read on NHC that Bdos recently recorded a 49mph wind. so maybe you guys might be in for a bit of turbulence for just a bit longer.
Hang in there buddy....

[cycloneye]

Good morning.Hopefully, a return to normal occurs in the islands that were affected by Tomas.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
621 AM AST SUN OCT 31 2010

.SYNOPSIS...HURRICANE TOMAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY...PASSING SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AROUND
200 MILES LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. GENERALLY SQUALLY WEATHER...WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE OUTER
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OF TOMAS...WITH SLOWLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FROM EAST TO WEST LATE TUESDAY.
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE LOCAL OFFSHORE
CARIBBEAN WATERS AND SOUTHERN MOST PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL PASSAGES
THROUGH NOON MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SHOWED FEW OUTER BANDS OF
TOMAS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS
MORNING. THESE OUTER RAIN BANDS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH OFF AND ON SHOWERS AND SOME SQUALLY WEATHER
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LOCALIZED RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO
TWO INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER SQUALLS. WIND GUSTS UP
TO ABOUT 35 MPH CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED IN SQUALLS. OTHERWISE...MAIN
IMPACTS FROM TOMAS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LARGE BREAKING WAVE
ACTION OVER ST. CROIX AND THE SOUTHERN COAST OF PR.

THE FORECAST PATH OF TOMAS BEYOND TUESDAY REMAINS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE CYCLONE WILL SLOW DOWN AND POSSIBLY
STALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN JUST SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
JAMAICA. NUMERICAL MODELS AND NHC FORECAST TURN TOMAS TO THE
NORTH. BUT EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE THAT WILL HAPPEN REMAINS
UNKNOWN. POSSIBLE INTERACTION OF TOMAS WITH HISPANIOLA ALSO
INCREASES UNCERTAINTY ABOUT ITS STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY. THE
PASSAGE OF CONVERGENCE BANDS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK...WHEN THE
SYSTEM IS WEST OR NORTHWEST OF THE REGION...MAY INDUCE HEAVY RAINS
AND THIS TOO WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.


&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDS ACROSS ALL PR AND THE VI TAF SITES
THROUGH 31/14Z. TEMPO MVFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS
TNCM AND TKPK THIS MORNING. SHRAS AND TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE TOMAS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT TISX AND TIST AFT
31/14Z...AND SPREAD ACROSS PR BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE....TEMPO
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW.

&&

.MARINE...BASED ON THE LATEST NHC WIND SPEED PROBS OF NEARLY 60%
ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE AND CARIBBEAN WATERS AND THE LIKELIHOOD THAT
THESE WATERS WILL EXPERIENCE LOTS OF SQUALLY WEATHER WITH FREQ GUSTS
OVER 34 KNOTS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE
LOCAL OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND SOUTHERN MOST PORTIONS OF THE
LOCAL PASSAGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 78 87 77 / 80 70 30 20
STT 87 78 87 78 / 60 60 30 20

[snowcane180]

Well I would love to see that forecast here in Georgia because it hasnt rained here in about a month.

[cycloneye]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Hope I did this right, Not wishing to detract from what Hurr. Tomas is currently doing to the islands but a friend who went out to assess the damage to reef after Hurr. Just posted this photo today, and I wanted to share this photo which shows the damage Hurr Richard inflicted on the reef before making landfall in Belize. Gallows point reef is approx 12 miles east of Belize City. Reef damage helps to give picture of how strong wave action was to snap the tops of the coral off.

Oh boy,that is terrible what occured with the coral reef.

[msbee]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Hope I did this right, Not wishing to detract from what Hurr. Tomas is currently doing to the islands but a friend who went out to assess the damage to reef after Hurr. Just posted this photo today, and I wanted to share this photo which shows the damage Hurr Richard inflicted on the reef before making landfall in Belize. Gallows point reef is approx 12 miles east of Belize City. Reef damage helps to give picture of how strong wave action was to snap the tops of the coral off.

OMG, how awful. when we think of these storms and the destruction they cause, we often forget about the damage to the fragile coral structure.

[cycloneye]

From Crownweather Services:

Air Force Reconnaissance aircraft have found Tomas has strengthened overnight and has 100 mph sustained winds this morning, making it a Category 2 hurricane. Data from the aircraft, however, revealed that the hurricane is leaning to the northeast the higher you go in altitude. This means that there is some southwesterly wind shear affecting Tomas. The hurricane intensity guidance all forecast some additional strengthening today into tonight, however from Monday through Wednesday, any strengthening will stop and in fact there may be some weakening of the hurricane during this time period. The reason for this is because southwesterly wind shear of 20 to 25 knots will affect the hurricane and I personally think the north coast of Venezuela will impact the hurricane in some way, especially with the southwesterly wind shear. The LGEM intensity model, in fact, weakens Tomas from a 105 mph hurricane later today to a 80 mph hurricane by Wednesday morning. Starting on Wednesday and continuing through Friday, the wind shear values are forecast to decrease and strengthening seems quite possible during this time period. It should be noted that the LGEM intensity model forecasts Tomas to strengthen from a 80 mph hurricane on Wednesday morning to a 100 to 105 mph hurricane by Friday morning.

Tomas is tracking west-northwest at a forward speed of 8 to 9 mph this morning and the hurricane is located to the south of a trough of low pressure located over the southwest North Atlantic. This trough of low pressure is forecast to lift out and be replaced by a ridge of high pressure in the next day or two. This will cause Tomas to turn to the west from Monday through early Wednesday. In fact, some of the global model guidance like the GFS, European and UKMET models forecast a west-southwest track during Tuesday. After that, this ridge of high pressure is forecast to break down as a large and deep trough of low pressure moves into the eastern United States. This will cause Tomas to slow down in forward speed and turn much more to the northwest by Thursday.

It needs to be emphasized that there is a very large model spread for the forecast position during Thursday and Friday. The reason why is that the model guidance cannot agree on what way Tomas will interact with this trough of low pressure. The track guidance forecasts a recurve that could cause a landfall anywhere between Jamaica and Puerto Rico. The majority of the latest model guidance, however, forecasts a scenario that would take Tomas right over Haiti, which if this happens would be extremely and exceptionally bad!!

A landfall by a major hurricane into Haiti would be a worst case scenario for that country. There is little or no shelter and over a million people live in tents due to the earthquake from January. In addition, there is a widespread Cholera outbreak going on right now in that country. So, a hit by a major hurricane would be downright catastrophic. Even a landfall by a tropical storm or a Category 1 hurricane would be disastrous for Haiti due to the heavy rainfall and mudslides. I truly fear that the combination of poor living conditions, mountainous terrain which aggravates the mudslide/flooding potential and the potential for a strong hurricane coming ashore in Haiti could cause a very high death toll.

All interests, including residents in Haiti, those of you with family in Haiti, and relief workers that are in Haiti, should start thinking seriously now on what preventive actions to take for this hurricane. The timeline for a potential landfall by Tomas onto the country of Haiti looks to be anywhere between Thursday and Saturday depending on how Tomas interacts with the trough of low pressure over the eastern United States.

It should be noted that a track further west towards Jamaica or further east to Puerto Rico are both viable possibilities. In fact, the latest HWRF model forecasts that Tomas will not make it past 70 West Longitude and forecasts that Tomas will eventually track northeastward right into Puerto Rico on Friday morning.

So, all interests in the Caribbean, especially those of you in Jamaica, eastern Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico should keep extremely close watch on the progress of Hurricane Tomas. As I have already mentioned, those of you with interests in Haiti should seriously start thinking now on what preventive actions are needed to prepare for Hurricane Tomas.

[Gustywind]

Strong showers last night in Guadeloupe with nice gusts near Huc location (Basse-Terre) and Saint Claude given our journalists. Numerous poweroutages were reported too in these same locations. I've endured a small poweroutage early this morning but all is ok in my location. Weather is always grey and sad, with brief but strong line of showers with occasionnal gustywinds. An improvement is expected this afternoon, let's hope that but no report of damages for the moment in Guadeloupe and that's the good news. We're always in yellow alert.

[Gustywind]

Hey HUC what is the situation at Basse-Terre? I know that the night was long too hoping that all was ok. Be safe and dry! Gustywind

[crownweather]

Thanks for posting our discussion!! Obviously it cannot be emphasized enough that word needs to be put out that Haiti may face another catastrophic disaster and more aid will likely be required for Haiti. The death toll in past hurricanes have been just staggering and I fear a repeat from Tomas.

From Crownweather Services:

Air Force Reconnaissance aircraft have found Tomas has strengthened overnight and has 100 mph sustained winds this morning, making it a Category 2 hurricane. Data from the aircraft, however, revealed that the hurricane is leaning to the northeast the higher you go in altitude. This means that there is some southwesterly wind shear affecting Tomas. The hurricane intensity guidance all forecast some additional strengthening today into tonight, however from Monday through Wednesday, any strengthening will stop and in fact there may be some weakening of the hurricane during this time period. The reason for this is because southwesterly wind shear of 20 to 25 knots will affect the hurricane and I personally think the north coast of Venezuela will impact the hurricane in some way, especially with the southwesterly wind shear. The LGEM intensity model, in fact, weakens Tomas from a 105 mph hurricane later today to a 80 mph hurricane by Wednesday morning. Starting on Wednesday and continuing through Friday, the wind shear values are forecast to decrease and strengthening seems quite possible during this time period. It should be noted that the LGEM intensity model forecasts Tomas to strengthen from a 80 mph hurricane on Wednesday morning to a 100 to 105 mph hurricane by Friday morning.

Tomas is tracking west-northwest at a forward speed of 8 to 9 mph this morning and the hurricane is located to the south of a trough of low pressure located over the southwest North Atlantic. This trough of low pressure is forecast to lift out and be replaced by a ridge of high pressure in the next day or two. This will cause Tomas to turn to the west from Monday through early Wednesday. In fact, some of the global model guidance like the GFS, European and UKMET models forecast a west-southwest track during Tuesday. After that, this ridge of high pressure is forecast to break down as a large and deep trough of low pressure moves into the eastern United States. This will cause Tomas to slow down in forward speed and turn much more to the northwest by Thursday.

It needs to be emphasized that there is a very large model spread for the forecast position during Thursday and Friday. The reason why is that the model guidance cannot agree on what way Tomas will interact with this trough of low pressure. The track guidance forecasts a recurve that could cause a landfall anywhere between Jamaica and Puerto Rico. The majority of the latest model guidance, however, forecasts a scenario that would take Tomas right over Haiti, which if this happens would be extremely and exceptionally bad!!

A landfall by a major hurricane into Haiti would be a worst case scenario for that country. There is little or no shelter and over a million people live in tents due to the earthquake from January. In addition, there is a widespread Cholera outbreak going on right now in that country. So, a hit by a major hurricane would be downright catastrophic. Even a landfall by a tropical storm or a Category 1 hurricane would be disastrous for Haiti due to the heavy rainfall and mudslides. I truly fear that the combination of poor living conditions, mountainous terrain which aggravates the mudslide/flooding potential and the potential for a strong hurricane coming ashore in Haiti could cause a very high death toll.

All interests, including residents in Haiti, those of you with family in Haiti, and relief workers that are in Haiti, should start thinking seriously now on what preventive actions to take for this hurricane. The timeline for a potential landfall by Tomas onto the country of Haiti looks to be anywhere between Thursday and Saturday depending on how Tomas interacts with the trough of low pressure over the eastern United States.

It should be noted that a track further west towards Jamaica or further east to Puerto Rico are both viable possibilities. In fact, the latest HWRF model forecasts that Tomas will not make it past 70 West Longitude and forecasts that Tomas will eventually track northeastward right into Puerto Rico on Friday morning.

So, all interests in the Caribbean, especially those of you in Jamaica, eastern Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico should keep extremely close watch on the progress of Hurricane Tomas. As I have already mentioned, those of you with interests in Haiti should seriously start thinking now on what preventive actions are needed to prepare for Hurricane Tomas.

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

Very good news as I see from Guadeloupe.

[Gustywind]

Very good news as I see from Guadeloupe.

Yeah Luis thanks ! I'm glad to see that but i will try to hear the news at 12AM to see if we have eventually some minors damages. I will continue to keep your informed if i have more news on the butterfly islands .

[cycloneye]

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1226 PM AST SUN OCT 31 2010

...WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...

VIZ002-010030-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.WI.Y.0003.101031T1626Z-101101T1000Z/
ST CROIX-
1226 PM AST SUN OCT 31 2010

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AST MONDAY.

A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
OF THE REGION AND HURRICANE TOMAS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS SAINT CROIX
ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE COMMON THROUGH TONIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 25 MPH OR
GREATER ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. PEOPLE IN THE
ADVISORY AREA SHOULD SECURE ANY LOOSE OUTDOOR ITEMS SUCH AS
GARBAGE CANS OR LAWN FURNITURE. TRUCKS AND HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES
SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOUNTAINS PASSES.

&&

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
424 PM AST SUN OCT 31 2010

.SYNOPSIS...HURRICANE TOMAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TONIGHT AND WILL PASS SSE OF SAINT CROIX
THIS EVENING AND S OF PONCE MONDAY MORNING. SQUALLY WEATHER
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ISLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NO CHANGES TO TALK ABOUT TOMAS OTHER THAN TOMAS
WEAKENED SOME AND IS NOW A MINIMAL HURRICANE. MAIN IMPACTS FROM
TOMAS IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE HIGH SURF ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST
OF PR AND ST. CROIX. DID ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 1500 FEET AS COMBINATION OF TOMAS AND HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH
WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. BASED
ON JSJ VWP AND RECENT AIRCRAFT DATA...SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 25 KT
ARE LIKELY OCCURRING ABOVE 2000 FEET MSL. AS THE PRES GRADIENT
TIGHTENS TONIGHT WE SHOULD SEE WINDS COME DOWN FURTHER SO HAVE
GONE WITH 1500 FEET FOR WIND ADVISORY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25G35KT CAN
BE EXPECTED AT THOSE ELEVATIONS.

IN TERMS OF RAINFALL...MAINLY EXPECT FAST MOVING SQUALLS THAT
COULD DUMP UP TO AN INCH IN LOCALIZED PLACES. MOST PLACES ARE
LIKELY TO SEE AROUND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.

THINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE RAPIDLY MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT HIGH
CLOUDS WILL LINGER FOR A WHILE.


&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BUT BRIEF MVFR EVEN IF
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SQUALLS. WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY
ESPECIALLY ST. CROIX AND PONCE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 20 KT
LIKELY ALL NIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CARIBBEAN
SEA AND PASSAGES BEYOND 10 NM FROM THE COAST. SEAS WILL BE VERY
ROUGH WITH 10 TO 16 FEET ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 86 75 85 / 80 60 20 20
STT 78 87 77 86 / 70 40 20 20

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
450 AM AST MON NOV 1 2010

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS TODAY. GENERALLY SQUALLY
WEATHER...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN WATERS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE OUTER BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OF
TOMAS...WITH SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FROM EAST
TO WEST EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SHOWED OUTER BANDS OF
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE OUTER RAIN BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS MORNING
WITH OFF AND ON SHOWERS AND SOME SQUALLY WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT.
LOCALIZED RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER SQUALLS. WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH CAN
ALSO BE EXPECTED IN SQUALLS. OTHERWISE...MAIN IMPACTS FROM TOMAS
WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LARGE BREAKING WAVE ACTION OVER THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF PR. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE EN EFFECT
FOR THE EXPOSED CARIBBEAN COASTAL AREAS. A WIND ADVISORY WILL
CONTINUE ALSO IN EFFECT FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 FEET UNTIL AT
LEAST NOON TODAY.

THE FORECAST PATH OF TOMAS BEYOND THURSDAY REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN
AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE CYCLONE WILL SLOW DOWN AND POSSIBLY STALL
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN JUST SOUTH OF HAITI. NUMERICAL MODELS
AND NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST TURN TOMAS TO THE NORTH BY THURSDAY.
POSSIBLE INTERACTION OF TOMAS WITH HAITI TERRAIN ALSO INCREASES
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT ITS STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY. THE PASSAGE OF
CONVERGENCE BANDS LATE THIS WEEK...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...WHEN THE SYSTEM IS WEST OR NORTHWEST OF THE REGION...MAY
INDUCE HEAVY RAINS AND THIS TOO WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDS ACROSS ALL PR AND THE VI TAF
SITES. SHWRS AND TSRAS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WILL
AFFECT THE TAF SITES FROM TIME TO TIME...PRODUCING TEMPO MVFR OR
EVEN IFR CONDS AS THEY PASS BY. LLVL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE
EAST NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 30 KNOTS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS UP TO 26 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 11 FEET ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS TODAY...DECREASING SLOWLY
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE IN
EFFECT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND
ANEGADA PASSAGES AND FOR THE MONA PASSAGE AT LEAST UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE
REST OF THE COASTAL WATERS.

[Gustywind]

Here is news from Guadeloupe after TOMAS, hopefully very little and extremely minor damages to report here and no fatalities in this. Translation to english.
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... -99769.php

Weather. Back to green for Guadeloupe
E.L. franceantilles.fr 31.10.2010

Tomas category 1 hurricane away permanently the coasts of the Lesser Antilles and continues its road in the direction of Haiti or the Jamaica. For Guadeloupe, this translates an improvement of the time, even though the sky remains still loaded with a few low-intensity rainfall. Offshore and nearshore wave are less tall, sign that danger is discarded.
It remains that for weather episode that particularly affected South of the archipelago, heavy rains have been recorded: 119 mm at Saint-Claude, 76 mm to 75 mm in Basse-Terre, 64 mm to Sainte-Anne, 54 mm 42 mm at Saint-François and Baillif and Baie-Mahault, Pointe-Noire. The winds blew also strong: 94 km/h at Baillif, 83 km/h at la Desirade, 61 km/h at Sainte-Anne and 79 km/h at the Raizet. 5.5 M troughs have been observed at Grande Vigie.
To deal with these difficult conditions routes of Guadeloupe mobilized some 30 men, as soon as Saturday afternoon. They responded 40 times, especially in the South of the Basse-Terre and the Leeward coast for clearing branches, trees and posts on the pavement. No landslide was recorded on the route of the crossing was opened. In contrast, RD 11 (the yellow Bains) was closed a few hours.
Due to intensive, winds causing falls trees on wires, a few homes were denied a few hours of electricity. For the same reasons, the firefighters intervened repeatedly. A sailboat is found in difficulty between ïlet pig and Petit-Bourg. The persons on board, three Martinique, wounded in the head, were recovered and evacuated to the hospital.

[Gustywind]

Bye bye Tomas ... Whereas let's keep an eye (in case of) on a another feature not so far where Tomas forms last week.