ATL : TOMAS - Models

snowcane180 · #161 Postby **snowcane180** » Sat Oct 30, 2010 8:08 pm

We should all just follow the euro model

#162 Postby **Vortex** » Sat Oct 30, 2010 8:08 pm

For those that haven't seen the 12Z ECM...Here's the loop..

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... _loop.html

Vortmax1 · #163 Postby **Vortmax1** » Sat Oct 30, 2010 8:12 pm

Well...after you look at this mess it's not hard to believe the ECM might be correct!

#164 Postby **Ntxw** » Sat Oct 30, 2010 8:12 pm

Vortex wrote:from time to time they hit a homerun...interested in bamd as it would be expected to perform best given the "deep" nature of the storm....often there not very good with the long-term destination but at times decent in sniffing out trends...

I could be wrong on this, but the Bamd isn't as good during the later half of the season when the upper pattern is more progressive from observance. It tends to do better when things are controlled by high pressure and not so well with troughs digging in especially in October.

^ The EC may very well be correct, but the current stance is that it is the outlier at this time compared to the rest.

#165 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Oct 30, 2010 8:14 pm

Vortmax1 wrote:Well...after you look at this mess it's not hard to believe the ECM might be correct!

It's interesting to note the ecmwf does not really strengthen this as it moves into the eastern Caribbean. It strengthens rapidly once the gulf of Mexico trough lifts out.

Looking at tomas now maybe it will just get this right.

This could be a major intensity forecast bust from the nhc if the euro holds

Vortmax1 · #166 Postby **Vortmax1** » Sat Oct 30, 2010 8:19 pm

Looking at tomas now maybe it will just get this right.

This could be a major intensity forecast bust from the nhc if the euro holds

Let's be honest...the official agency has not done well with this one anyway.

snowcane180 · #167 Postby **snowcane180** » Sat Oct 30, 2010 9:07 pm

Told you we should all follow the euro

snowcane180 · #168 Postby **snowcane180** » Sat Oct 30, 2010 9:10 pm

If some models do bad jobs of forecasting always. why use the model?

Aquawind · #169 Postby **Aquawind** » Sat Oct 30, 2010 9:13 pm

snowcane180 wrote:If some models do bad jobs of forecasting always. why use the model?

They are just another tool for forecasting..

#170 Postby **Ntxw** » Sat Oct 30, 2010 9:18 pm

^ That is why you use the consensus of where the majority goes. Could they be wrong? Absolutely, the single odd one could be right, but that is not generally a wise thing to do. Follow what most are saying and when/if they converge with the odd one out, make a better forecast.

#171 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sat Oct 30, 2010 9:28 pm

Ntxw wrote:^ That is why you use the consensus of where the majority goes. Could they be wrong? Absolutely, the single odd one could be right, but that is not generally a wise thing to do. Follow what most are saying and when/if they converge with the odd one out, make a better forecast.

I'm not sure what some posters are talking about. The consensus is actually in good agreement right now for a north turn. There is an outlier with the Euro which should be discussed, but I want some newbies to know it a a low probability right now.

Vortmax1 · #172 Postby **Vortmax1** » Sat Oct 30, 2010 9:33 pm

but I want some newbies to know it a a low probability right now.

I know...it's sad. I do not have many thousand posts on this site and I guess I am considered a newbie for it.

Whatever....the ECM is on the money right now and is not backing off!

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Edited by Ivanhater to include disclaimer

latitude_20 · #173 Postby **latitude_20** » Sat Oct 30, 2010 10:11 pm

Well, um, the consensus has been reliable all season.

#174 Postby **weatherSnoop** » Sat Oct 30, 2010 10:58 pm

latitude_20 wrote:Well, um, the consensus has been reliable all season.

Which consensus? Are there not several?

#175 Postby **SFLcane** » Sat Oct 30, 2010 11:18 pm

Here's a look at the 00z models plots for Tomas....real models

Aquawind · #176 Postby **Aquawind** » Sat Oct 30, 2010 11:22 pm

Woah..Serious turn would be the consensus..

#177 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sat Oct 30, 2010 11:23 pm

00z GFS direct hit on Haiti moving north, caught in the trough.

latitude_20 · #178 Postby **latitude_20** » Sat Oct 30, 2010 11:26 pm

weatherSnoop wrote:
latitude_20 wrote:Well, um, the consensus has been reliable all season.

Which consensus? Are there not several?

It's going to turn north. Sigh.

#179 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Sat Oct 30, 2010 11:43 pm

snowcane180 wrote:Told you we should all follow the euro

Based on what? It's the outlier, which means it is against all the other models. You want to go with the single model that does not show what the others do? That is like betting on the one horse in the race with a broken leg.

#180 Postby **somethingfunny** » Sat Oct 30, 2010 11:51 pm

The Euro is a total outlier. The consensus of every model except the Euro is for a sharp right turn, the only difference is the speed/timing. Except the Euro, which has an unrealistic solution for Tomas.

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