ATL : EX TOMAS - Discussion

[aerology]

BTW Votmax, that CIMS storm-centered view you posted is TOO cool. It's great to see the cyclone evolve without it moving. Like to get that link.

Right click on the image, select view image, copy the addy in the address bar( http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... t48hrs.gif ) then return to original view and paste addy in new tab, viola there it is!

What I find most interesting is the way the image looks like an Aurora presentation; the precip areas stay in relatively the same positions as if developed and focused by ionospheric electric fields, and the clouds pass into and through the areas of rain generation, but the rain still stays in formation as the clouds cycle through, and the whole TS moves left, even the outlying clouds and precipitation seems to stay in the same background pattern of rain production. The pulses in flares in RI development still follow the basic structure, as the whole arm flares in phase, like stage lights.

[Shuriken]

Words of advice guys, we can't play with this one. It is an unprecedented storm that will teach us many lessons. We'll have to take Tomas day by day, witnessing its amazing trek across the Caribbean in early NOVEMBER.

Absolutely.

The last two unsheared, slow-moving late-Oct/early-Nov hurricanes which had this much running room in the Caribbean were Mitch and Wilma -- and Tomas has the most running room of them all. As a small storm, Wilma behaved predictably; as a monster, Mitch was completely unpredictable. 1998 (Mitch) and 2005 (Wilma) are also two of the four best analog years identified by Dr. Gray's forecast team. (1952, one of the other analogs, also featured a powerful cat-4 October hurricane in the Caribbean.)

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Tomas' core west of the islands is really beginning to breathe well now.

[Recurve]

BTW Votmax, that CIMS storm-centered view you posted is TOO cool. It's great to see the cyclone evolve without it moving. Like to get that link.

Right click on the image, select view image, copy the addy in the address bar( http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... t48hrs.gif ) then return to original view and paste addy in new tab, viola there it is!

What I find most interesting is the way the image looks like an Aurora presentation; the precip areas stay in relatively the same positions as if developed and focused by ionospheric electric fields, and the clouds pass into and through the areas of rain generation, but the rain still stays in formation as the clouds cycle through, and the whole TS moves left, even the outlying clouds and precipitation seems to stay in the same background pattern of rain production. The pulses in flares in RI development still follow the basic structure, as the whole arm flares in phase, like stage lights.

Thanks for the info. I also backtracked on the URL and found the homepage for those views at http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/marti/marti.html

And what you said about watching the rain -- Exactly -- the rain/Thunderstorm cells seem to be in certain zones, with the moisture or clouds passing through them -- although I don't know how much the processing they're doing also cancels out rotation. Cells sometimes seemed to be somewhat stationary in IR enhanced loops or especially radar, and it really seems evident in this MIMIC view.

Not familiar with "Aurora" presentation.
Edit: Unless you mean the Northern Lights?

[summersquall]

Category 2 as of 2 am Advisory.

[amich]

Update from here in St. Vincent:

They shut off power to the island yesterday around noon, and it has recently come back on. My husband and I are safe at home (it didn't seem to hit this southern part as hard as the north). Spent the afternoon watching the hurricane and listening to the radio. Over 100 roofs have blown off, nearly 30 roadblocks, tons of downed power lines, and some houses destroyed. Haven't heard of any loss of life, so that is a blessing. Still raining and blowing pretty heavily right now. We'll see what the rest of it holds.

[brunota2003]

Glad to hear everyone is safe for the most part! Property can be replaced, lives can't.

[dwsqos2]

Tomas looks a wretched mess now. The shear undercutting the outflow layer is becoming more apparent. Could the Euro, which weakens Tomas dramatically, be right?

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[amich]

Glad to hear everyone is safe for the most part! Property can be replaced, lives can't.

Very true! That's the attitude most everyone has right now. Right now we seem to be getting another 'wave' of weather - very strong winds and rain, similar to the worst of yesterday. I am surprised they are leaving the power on through this one!

[45NWOrlando]

Hewanorra International Airport, Saint Lucia, hasn't reported the weather conditions since noon, local time.

That may be due to the fact that Hewanorra has been closed because of flooding, according to the latest public advisory from the NHC. Then again, Arnos Vale in St. Vincent hasn’t made any reports since 10:00 a.m. I guess they’re closed too.

Closed Caribbean island airports don't report weather conditions when they aren't operational?

[snowcane180]

This hurricane a mess. Td tomorrow. I mentioned earlier that we should all follow the euro and not worry!

[ozonepete]

It's fighting some westerly shear now. NWS said this all along and KWT kept pointing it out. You can see it in the line going from Puerto Rico southwestward. As that shear eases today it will have a big window for strengthening later today and tomorrow, and this is what the NHC has said since yesterday.

[snowcane180]

So this system still has the potential to be significant once the shear relaxes?

[summersquall]

So this system still has the potential to be significant once the shear relaxes?

The 5 am NHC Discussion contains an excellent analysis of the shear/intensity forecast. i won't quote the entire section, however to answer your question...yes. Bare in mind this system is already packing Cat 2 force winds.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/0900Z 14.0N 62.9W 85 KT
12HR VT 31/1800Z 14.4N 64.3W 95 KT
24HR VT 01/0600Z 14.8N 66.4W 95 KT
36HR VT 01/1800Z 15.1N 68.4W 95 KT
48HR VT 02/0600Z 15.1N 70.0W 90 KT
72HR VT 03/0600Z 15.0N 72.0W 90 KT
96HR VT 04/0600Z 15.5N 73.5W 100 KT
120HR VT 05/0600Z 16.5N 74.0W 100 KT

[snowcane180]

Thanks for the excellent information!

[KWT]

Yeah shear has picked up from the west again a short 12hrs period where it eased off last night, its not a big shear zone however and given this systems track I'd be VERY worried if people started to take thier eye off the ball with this one if it does weaken somewhat over the next 24hrs...

Also remember if it takes a track close to the NHC thoughts, then even a weak/moderate TS is going to cause HUGE problems for Haiti, and I suspect Tomas will be quite alot stronger then that...still think a 3/4 at some point is not only possible but probable.

[snowcane180]

Why do hurricanes, ts,td cause so many deaths in haiti? cat 1 jean(3000) hearing that makes me burst into tears. Tropical storm gordon(1100 deaths) That storm should have been retired along with hanna08

[KWT]

I'm guessing its the combo of poor living conditions plus the fact its a very mountionus land which makes mudslides/landslides and flooding even worse, but as bad as they were a decent strength hurricane hitting them at the moment, esp a slow moving one which is seemingly looking quite possible with lots of rain in advanced could make even those look small...

I fear this one is going to be the one people remember in the same ranks as Mitch/Katrina/Nargis if the tracks don't change...

[jlauderdal]

Why do hurricanes, ts,td cause so many deaths in haiti? cat 1 jean(3000) hearing that makes me burst into tears. Tropical storm gordon(1100 deaths) That storm should have been retired along with hanna08

poor infrastructure is the biggest problem but the terrain causes landslides and the rain flows downhill and the terrain makes rain production extremely efficient, they have also stripped some of the hills bare and thus the landslides get going, lack of funds for serious preparation and cleanup and on and on...it isn't getting better anytime soon so folks that want to pray and hope go ahead but the fact is this part of the world has many things going against it for a myriad of reasons none of which will be solved in our lifetimes and tropical systems are part of the deal in the tropics.

[snowcane180]

I feel extremely bad 4 haiti. My goodness a td causing 2000 deaths. I cant imagine what a potential upper end cat 2 or 3 would do.

[andrewsurvivor]

Correct, KWT as you often are. Mountainous terrain is almost always a serious flood issue. However, coupled with a poor infrastructure the situation is extremely deadly. Just my humble opinion but with all the aid the US gives, why something isn't dobe to help baffles me. There has been far too much death and suffering in Haiti. If it were a terror issue certainly the world would take notice with so many lives at stake. The health issues post storms are of grave concern especially now after the cholera outbreak recovery. May we all pray for this to spare them but it's looking like a scary set up. As you mentioned, it doesn't take a major cane to cause major problems here.