ATL : EX TOMAS - Discussion

[cycloneye]

There wa a glitch in the system here that the adminstrators are ckecking out to see what cause it. Without any more interruptions,lets continue the discussions about Hurricane Tomas.

[KWT]

A big concern is the slowdown/stall just south of Haiti. If it stalls close enough to Haiti for the squalls to begin impacting on Tuesday and they last for over 2 days there, then the rainfall totals will be incredible. And THEN the center of the storm may pass right over them.

Yep, as bad as the wind may well end up being the slow moving nature of the system and the heavy rains which will almost certainly be about the system is going to be the real threat to life IMO.

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 63.7W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM W OF ST. LUCIA
ABOUT 345 MI...550 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES

[cycloneye]

The 11 AM Track curves towards Haiti.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Looks like they forcast it to be a major hurricane when it curves toward Haiti. That would be very tragic for Haiti.

[wxman57]

Sharp north turn Thursday on NHC's latest track, as expected. Question is, does it stall Tue-Wed closer to 15N or 16-17N? And how far will the heavy squalls extend from the center then? That would make a huge difference as far as rainfall in Haiti/DR.

[cycloneye]

Looks like they forcast it to be a major hurricane when it curves toward Haiti. That would be very tragic for Haiti.

Even if is a strong wave,Haiti will endure a horrific tragedy, but hopefully,it dissipates in the water with 60kts of shear and tons of dry air.

[wxman57]

I don't think it's going to dissipate near Haiti. Wind shear won't be that high as it starts turning north toward the island. European model looks clueless as far as Tomas' intensity.

[srainhoutx]

I am beginning to wonder if the Euro did not have the right idea on a weaker system moving abit further W along the easterly flow. Such a scenario may raise the threat to Jamaica and Cuba, IMO.

[KWT]

I think its pretty obvious now the trough will have enough strength to take this up, even if it does end up being a weaker system.

The NHC forecast showing a major heading for Haiti is going to get the media's attention in the next few hours I reckon. As Wxman57 said, every bit of latitude it gains before it slows down for the turn towards Hispaniola is very bad news...

[Ntxw]

[guyclaude08]

it's raining right now in DR Santiago i want to know if it's part of Hurricane tomas rain bands ????????????

[snowcane180]

It seems now that a track over haiti is becoming more and more likely.

[srainhoutx]

I think its pretty obvious now the trough will have enough strength to take this up, even if it does end up being a weaker system.

The NHC forecast showing a major heading for Haiti is going to get the media's attention in the next few hours I reckon. As Wxman57 said, every bit of latitude it gains before it slows down for the turn towards Hispaniola is very bad news...

It was already on most National News in the US this morning, KWT. Infact, the interviews I saw with Red Cross officials stated that some evacuations were likely coming.

[wxman57]

it's raining right now in DR Santiago i want to know if it's part of Hurricane tomas rain bands ????????????

No, nearest squalls are over 450 miles away from you. Just a small shower.

[KWT]

Hopefully the system keeps getting sheared from the west, that would reduce the amount of rains for Haiti as all the convection would be on the eastern side and also keep the system in check as well...

[snowcane180]

Is it a coincidence that every storm that moves over haiti stalls or moves extremely slow?

[Sanibel]

Looks like an unseasonable system has encountered unseasonable eastern Caribbean conditions. Maybe some air off South American has disrupted Tomas' structure once it was tripped-up by the islands.

It's November so it might take a while for Tomas to pull it all back in.


Climatology is strictly in favor of a turn with all the fronts that arrive regularly in November.

[KWT]

Yeah Sanibel its pretty rare for a system to develop so far east at this time of the year, usually its the central/western Caribbean still that develops a late October/Early November type system...

[srainhoutx]

Will RECON find a TS? Tomas is certainly a much weaker system than even a few hours ago, IMO...