ATL : EX TOMAS - Discussion

[LarryWx]

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1954/HAZEL/track.gif

Scary similarities here.

Edit: LOL at the above post.. posted nearly exact same time.

Yes, it is eerily similar in the Caribbean. However, keep in mind that no model has anything close to the Hazel track north of the Caribbean. Also, Hazel occurred over three crucial weeks earlier in the season, when the upper westerlies are normally not as strong/as far south and the SST's off of the SE US coast are usually warmer. Typically, there are major changes that occur during during that 3.5 week period. Climo gives additional comfort in that no recorded TC that formed east of 60W after 10/9 has managed to hit the lower 48 of the U.S. since at least 1851 The bottom line is that when considering models and with the very important added comfort of having the tool of climo support the idea of no lower 48 hit, there is no reason for the U.S. east coast to worry/be hopeful about a hit from Tomas.

[Aquawind]

Not at all impressive around the core right now. That forecast track is sick..

[wxman57]

Recon may find winds are down to 50-60 kts.

[Vortex]

Going into this season, the biggest humanatarian fear was a tropical system impacting Haiti....Per the 11am NHC a worst case scenario would unfold...

[Vortex]

The globals have advertised as a whole that it would be 70W before this really ramps up...May be Tuesday before the next strengthening phase...

[srainhoutx]

[guyclaude08]

how Tomas is going to gain strength that fast i mean it's almost a tropical storm ?????? i'm monitering this hurricane so i need answers :-

[Sanibel]

This is a strange year. Storms that should head towards climatology head in crazy directions. Storms that show the "Fist" promptly proceed to level-off and weaken. Storms that have enough of a head start to get by the east Caribbean proceed to get disrupted by the east Caribbean.


I would look at Tomas as a forming system with favorable conditions ahead of it.

[Macrocane]

how Tomas is going to gain strength that fast i mean it's almost a tropical storm ?????? i'm monitering this hurricane so i need answers :-

Tomas still has at least 6 days before it reaches land, the next 2 days may be unfavorable for strengthening but after that conditions will improve and that's why it is expected to be a major hurricane.

[snowcane180]

I look at tomas as a poorly organized system. It probably not going to get any stronger even with favorable conditions. Ike didnt reintensify into a cat 345 with very favorable conditions. Jmo

[Sanibel]

There's definitely shear and air from the CONUS side that Tomas wasn't predicted to encounter affecting the storm. However the system is moving towards 30C SST's.

[HURAKAN]

I look at tomas as a poorly organized system. It probably not going to get any stronger even with favorable conditions. Ike didnt reintensify into a cat 345 with very favorable conditions. Jmo

Yeah, but Ike had travelled over a lot of land and it's eye had expanded enormously. Tomás remains a compact system. Once conditions improve, it will intensify.

[Recurve]

24-hour loop morphed microwave from CIMSS

[snowcane180]

Honestly sst does not matter Imo. You can have very waters and a weak system. Think about bonnie

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[abajan]

The 11 AM Track curves towards Haiti.
http://img502.imageshack.us/img502/6789 ... w5nlsm.gif

What’s even more disconcerting is where in Haiti it seems to be heading. If the present forecast track and intensity verifies it seems to me that Tomas’ eye will pass just to the west of Port-au-Prince, placing what I would imagine to be the most densely populated area of that country on the strong side (and close to the center) of a major hurricane. The implications of such a scenario for any country would be serious but in Haiti’s case (with many of its capital’s residents still living in tents) particularly so.

The preceding reply is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[snowcane180]

Why dont they plant trees in haiti? Twc just mentioned 98 percent of haiti is deforested.

[jlauderdal]

Why dont they plant trees in haiti? Twc just mentioned 98 percent of haiti is deforested.

because the peeps will do what they did before, chop them down and use it for firewood, problems there are much larger than trees

[cycloneye]

Pretty strong winds found on SFMR in the 40's well away from center.

[Gustywind]

Go on this link to have a better idea of the damages (impressive) who have occured in St Lucia
http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/current/stlucia.shtml

[b]- Tomas
By Mike Davis <mdavisslu2010 at hotmail.com>
Date: Sun, 31 Oct 2010 16:34:04 +0000

Reports of widespread destruction in St. Lucia are starting to come through this morning. I didn't experience the storm first hand since I am out of St. Lucia at present but some friends have sent be some pictures of the many bridges which have collapsed totally crashing the island's road network and other pictures of damage done. Reports indicate that flooding was very severe and wind damage is also significant especially in the south of the island. The Hewanorra International Airport reported sustained winds of at least 92mph with much higher gusts at 5:30pm yesterday afternoon as the eyewall passed through and then the second half of the hurricane unleashed a massive deluge on St. Lucia not experienced on St. Lucian soil in recent memory. Heavy and torrentail rain accompanied by hurricane force wind gusts continued ceaselessly for about 10 hours from about 5pm yesterday on top of the moderate and occasionally heavy rain from the preceding 12 hours resulting in the major flooding experienced. Many roofs have been blown off, schools, hospitals, churches and homes have been damaged and some destroyed. Lots of trees down. Islandwide power outage. Powerlines, poles and transformers down in some areas. Unconfirmed reports of missing people and even loss of life.
The bridges at Bois d'Orange and Choc along the Castries/Gros Islet highway (shown below) have been destroyed. I was also told that the bridge at Marchand along the Castries river collapsed this morning and also numerous reports that the Sans Souci bridge in the city of Castries collapsed (unconfirmed).More info will be made available when it arrives.

Posted are pictures of the bridges at Bois d'Orange and Choc as well as other pictures from the districts of Castries and Gros Islet

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