ATL : TOMAS - Models

[Ntxw]

Tonight's Euro says sharp recurve towards Haiti/DR. Pretty much full consensus now. Hopefully people there have some sort of plan. I still think the EC is a bit too weak given what's already happened to Tomas being cat 2. Perhaps the tremendous shear coming in is what the EC is betting on to weaken it quickly, hope that's the case.

[chaser1]

The Euro is a total outlier. The consensus of every model except the Euro is for a sharp right turn, the only difference is the speed/timing. Except the Euro, which has an unrealistic solution for Tomas.

Ummmmmm, you might want to share those sentiments with the 0Z UK and GFDL models.

I have a tremendous respect for the GFS model, however please don't toss in the less sophisticated BAM's, LBAR, Persistance and Climo modeling and call "that" a consensus. Sounds like the old politico tag - "The Moral Majority". Had a strong sound to it....., but it was neither.

Look, I too think a "right turn" will eventually take place and might lean towards a more southern route such as the Euro, but an eventual GFS forecast outcome......, but c'mon lets keep things "real" here. I don't look that closely at the smaller zigs and zags of models, but rather take such to rather indicate a more subtle shift or change to steering.

[weatherwindow]

Well...after you look at this mess it's not hard to believe the ECM might be correct!

It's interesting to note the ecmwf does not really strengthen this as it moves into the eastern Caribbean. It strengthens rapidly once the gulf of Mexico trough lifts out.

Looking at tomas now maybe it will just get this right.

This could be a major intensity forecast bust from the nhc if the euro holds

........just an aside, if the euro verifies...jamaica is in for a serious rain event...easily 48 hrs of semi continuous inner core precip..of course, better jamaica than haiti

[cycloneye]

better jamaica than haiti

Or much better,dissipation without affecting anyone downstream.

[snowcane180]

Are you kidding? The lbar and bam models perform better than the rest

[KWT]

The ECM still not overly keen on Tomas though the models have not been all that great with strength with recent systems in the NW Caribbean and indeed they were way too weak with this one as well in the short term.

Either way the current track is one that really is attention grabbing at the moment and most models now take at least a slow moving TS over that region which on its own will cause mammoth problems in terms of rain.

[cycloneye]

06z HWRF puts the eye over me.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[KWT]

I suspect its too far east there CYcloneye but the general idea looks good with regards to a small loop before it steadily moves off to the N/NNE.

Also note how much it weakens this system, takes it down to what 40-45kts!

[cycloneye]

Oh boy.look what 06z GFDL does after it weakens to a moderate TS.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[KWT]

General trend seems to be a weakening phase from shear as it starts to move west/WSW then it starts to get pulled up by the trough and strengthen, perhaps by a fair amount as it hits one of the Central Caribbean countries...not good trends at all!

That GFDL is truly horrific!

[Migle]

Are you kidding? The lbar and bam models perform better than the rest

Since when?

[jinftl]

Latest model runs:

[KWT]

A worrying trend there emerging of it hitting close to Haiti in 4-5 days time as quite possibly a strengthening hurricane again...needs close watching.

[snowcane180]

The gfdl run is a worst case scenario. The track seems reasonable since it is november.

[Evil Jeremy]

Are you kidding? The lbar and bam models perform better than the rest

Since when?

Now apparently.

Snowcane, you have a lot to learn about how models work and which ones to put weight on.

[Jinkers]

I just hope it misses Haiti, those poor ppl don't need it, all those tents...

[snowcane180]

Yeah, I do need to learn a lot about the models

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

 
WHXX01 KWBC 311803
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1803 UTC SUN OCT 31 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE TOMAS (AL212010) 20101031 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        101031  1800   101101  0600   101101  1800   101102  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    14.2N  64.3W   14.7N  67.4W   15.1N  70.4W   15.1N  72.8W
BAMD    14.2N  64.3W   15.0N  65.5W   15.5N  66.7W   15.8N  67.6W
BAMM    14.2N  64.3W   14.8N  66.0W   15.2N  67.7W   15.4N  69.4W
LBAR    14.2N  64.3W   15.0N  65.4W   15.6N  66.4W   15.7N  66.9W
SHIP        70KTS          63KTS          59KTS          56KTS
DSHP        70KTS          63KTS          59KTS          56KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        101102  1800   101103  1800   101104  1800   101105  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    15.0N  74.7W   14.5N  77.1W   14.4N  75.9W   17.3N  70.8W
BAMD    16.0N  68.3W   17.0N  69.5W   20.3N  71.7W   29.3N  70.6W
BAMM    15.7N  70.9W   16.4N  73.6W   18.0N  75.7W   23.6N  74.5W
LBAR    15.6N  67.0W   15.2N  66.5W   14.8N  66.1W   15.9N  66.5W
SHIP        57KTS          57KTS          73KTS          80KTS
DSHP        57KTS          57KTS          73KTS          80KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  14.2N LONCUR =  64.3W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR =   9KT
LATM12 =  13.8N LONM12 =  62.4W DIRM12 = 288DEG SPDM12 =   8KT
LATM24 =  13.3N LONM24 =  61.0W
WNDCUR =   70KT RMAXWD =   15NM WNDM12 =   85KT
CENPRS =  992MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  175NM SDEPTH =   D
RD34NE =  130NM RD34SE =   80NM RD34SW =   45NM RD34NW = 130NM
 


[gatorcane]

12z ecmwf moves the system more quickly to the west then dissipates it.

[dwsqos2]

The 12Z Euro has a 1003 mb low south of Jamaica at hour 96 and a 1003 mb low to the northwest of Haiti at hour 120. I am 99% certain that the low in question is Tomas, and I don't have Florida blinders on.