ATL : EX TOMAS - Discussion

[cycloneye]

I am worried about complacency in the two nations that are in Hispanola about nothing big occuring as the news spreads about Tomas weakening.

[andrewsurvivor]

I agree, cycloneye. It doesn't take much to cause big problens. Complacency is a scary thought.

[snowcane180]

Wont if this storm stalls off the coast of haiti it strengthen? or will it upwell cooler water and weaken???

[Aquawind]

I little dry ahead for now..

[srainhoutx]

[jabber]

Amazing what 24 hours can do to a storm boom or poof.... I guess mother nature realized it was November. I would not let my guard down just yet.

[HURAKAN]

Mother nature send the shear and dry air to Tomás and said "is that scary enough for you!" lol

[Dean4Storms]

Now way this storm is still a cane, lets hope the shear and dry air continue!

[guyclaude08]

first of all you guys have been saying all day that it has weakened but everytime i come to the site i see it's still a category 1 i want to know what you guys call weakening lol i mean for sure because a cat 1 is still dangerous and also you talks like it's going to dissapate but i see that nhc forecast it to regain strenght fast and to become a cat 2 so what am i missing here ???????

[snowcane180]

This things gonna explode tomorrow night

[srainhoutx]

This things gonna explode tomorrow night

Based on what? The NHC was fairly straight forward in their discussion...

SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING SEEMS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF 20-25 KT AND SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUE
TO IMPACT THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND IN
THE GUIDANCE AND IS ONCE AGAIN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD...BRINGING TOMAS
BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. BEYOND A COUPLE
OF DAYS...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN WHILE TOMAS REMAINS OVER
FAVORABLE OCEANIC CONDITIONS. ALL OF THE INTENSITY MODELS RESPOND
AND SHOW THE SYSTEM INTENSIFYING IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY RANGE...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT AND IS AT THE HIGH END OF THE
GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

[cycloneye]

No surprise 00z Best Track downgrades to Tropical Storm.

AL, 21, 2010110100, , BEST, 0, 144N, 656W, 55, 997, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[snowcane180]

Well it says the shear is suppose to lesson. it could happen before they predict it.

[dwsqos2]

My brilliant call for no major 'canes after Oct. 1 has an excellent chance at verification.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ozonepete]

My brilliant call for no major 'canes after Oct. 1 has an excellent chance at verification.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

??

[snowcane180]

Tomas may be a major.

[cycloneye]

Tomas may be a major.

And your reasoning for that statement is?

[TheDreamTraveler]

Tomas may be a major.

And your reasoning for that statement is?

Well...on the NHC's chart they have Tomas up to 105mph by Friday. So it's very possible we still see a major cane out of this. Considering 105mph is 6mph away from major status.

[ozonepete]

Tomas may be a major.

And your reasoning for that statement is?

Well...on the NHC's chart they have Tomas up to 105mph by Friday. So it's very possible we still see a major cane out of this. Considering 105mph is 6mph away from major status.

A reasonable consideration, since the models still have very big problems with strength. BTW this one is especially tough; I don't think we can call it either way (stronger or weaker) until late tomorrow or Tuesday. Shear is so tough to forecast.

[wxman57]

I'm not so sure that the center hasn't shot out to the west and is approaching 67W this evening. If that's the case, then Tomas may no longer be even a TS. Pressure at the buoy near 15N/67.5W is rising, and winds are out of the ENE at 20 kts. I think I can see a broad LLC well out west of the convection in that area. Won't be able to confirm until recon gets there overnight.