ATL : EX TOMAS - Discussion

[cycloneye]

57,maybe not too far ahead at 67W,but around 66W.

[Battlebrick]

Big burst of convection just fired up..

It does seem however that the LLC is a little to the west.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track updated the position.

AL, 21, 2010110100, , BEST, 0, 142N, 660W, 55, 997, TS

[masaji79]

Wow, it's amazing how much Tomas has fluctuated within the past 48 hours.

[wxman57]

A little to the west? How about A LOT to the west (130 miles) of the convection:

[gatorcane]

I'm not so sure that the center hasn't shot out to the west and is approaching 67W this evening. If that's the case, then Tomas may no longer be even a TS. Pressure at the buoy near 15N/67.5W is rising, and winds are out of the ENE at 20 kts. I think I can see a broad LLC well out west of the convection in that area. Won't be able to confirm until recon gets there overnight.

How about the Euro which seems to be nailing the intensity forecast.

I was even shocked why it was pretty much dissipating Tomas as it traversed through the Caribbean.

That model sniffed out something other models like the GFS did not.

[Dean4Storms]

Nothing but a naked swirl right now close to 66.5W and If the shear continues for as long as they forecast it then this storm may drop to a TD IMO.

[Dean4Storms]

Also I would imagine with it this exposed that it starts moving more with the LL flow and be more 270 than 280ish.

[snowcane180]

Its gonna weaken to a 45mph tropical and then explode tomorrow night. i think i already mentioned this.

[Florida1118]

Its gonna weaken to a 45mph tropical and then explode tomorrow night. i think i already mentioned this.

And we still don't get your reasoning. Not much is supporting a "explosion".

[wxman57]

I'm not so sure that the center hasn't shot out to the west and is approaching 67W this evening. If that's the case, then Tomas may no longer be even a TS. Pressure at the buoy near 15N/67.5W is rising, and winds are out of the ENE at 20 kts. I think I can see a broad LLC well out west of the convection in that area. Won't be able to confirm until recon gets there overnight.

How about the Euro which seems to be nailing the intensity forecast.

I was even shocked why it was pretty much dissipating Tomas as it traversed through the Caribbean.

That model sniffed out something other models like the GFS did not.

The Euro only had a low with one closed isobar as it entered the Caribbean. I don't think I'd call that "nailing the intensity".

[wxman57]

I don't think the NHC will indicate much weakening on the next advisory, as recon will be there later tonight. I don't know if recon will find much left of Tomas, though.

[Florida1118]

Seems like Gaston all over again.

[snowcane180]

I said tomorrow night it will explode. Right now it looks a mess. very good news.

[ozonepete]

Wow - that is textbook shear damage. this is holding on by a thread.

[cycloneye]

Any recent microwave image to see how is the structure?

[HURAKAN]

you go up fast, and you fall faster! wow

[snowcane180]

Its gonna look better when we wake up in the morning.

[ravyrn]

I said tomorrow night it will explode. Right now it looks a mess. very good news.

Your logic evades me. Could you elaborate on why you think this will explode tomorrow night? And also why Tomas's exploding tomorrow night would be very good news?

[cycloneye]

Its gonna look better when we wake up in the morning.

I keep waiting for your reasoning from a earlier post.

Tomas may be a major.