ATL : EX TOMAS - Discussion

[wxman57]

Still no watches for Haiti nor Dominican Republic at the 11 AM advisory. When will they start to issue them? I ask because we know how the infrastructure of Haiti is and warning well ahead would be a good thing.
http://img169.imageshack.us/img169/3804 ... w5nlsm.gif

Watches will be issued about 48 hours prior to impact, Luis. With impact of TS winds projected to be on Friday morning, that would mean watches would go up in about 2 days - on Wednesday. That's assuming Tomas doesn't dissipate by then. I have it weakening to a TD this afternoon. Don't believe the NHC 35kt wind radii south of the center now. Can't find any evidence of TS wind except possibly the NE quadrant.

[cycloneye]

A milestone was reached with the 11 AM EDT advisory as Tomas puts ACE for the 2010 Atlantic season into hyperactive status. Go to the ACE Thread at Talking Tropics forum to see the numbers.

[Sanibel]

Looking at the loops there appears to be multi-layer shear across Tomas which is really a one two punch for a system. I think it could jump right back however if it reaches a shear free pocket. Black IR can really say a lot.

[cyclonic chronic]

Looking at the loops there appears to be multi-layer shear across Tomas which is really a one two punch for a system. I think it could jump right back however if it reaches a shear free pocket. Black IR can really say a lot.

i agree, shear at multiple levels from multiple directions would in effect cause alot of different(not as unstable) air to entrain at several levels at once. i was having a hard time figuring out how it got so sheared so fast. i know the upper level forecasts werent favorable for a few days but tomas lost his convection in a hurry. it got sheared so fast that the low level center is still very well defined, for now. yet if those newly developed convective cells can stay kinda close to the LLC it should warm the core, at least for awhile, and keep the spin. tho they are still being sheared to the N.E., gonna take awhile to get vertically stacked again. GCANE thanks for posting those core temp readings all season, same with the soundings. they really help to get an overall idea as to structure, and enviornment besides what sat shows.

man, i really hope it does dissipate and haiti dodges a T.C. of any strength this year. its like 05 and praying rita didnt smash into new orleans.

[GCANE]

GCANE thanks for posting those core temp readings all season, same with the soundings. they really help to get an overall idea as to structure, and enviornment besides what sat shows.

Your welcome CC.

Also, I have been tracking surface theta-e from dropsonde readings in the eye.

Last 24 hrs it has been running about 365 to 370K.

I am watching for a sudden spike which usually indicates a RI is close.

I'll post when I see one.

[CrazyC83]

Looks like the weakening has ended perhaps? Although there is still a good deal of shear, I can't see any real intensification for a day or two.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[GCANE]

ADT likes what its seeing.

[tolakram]

LOOP: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

[HURAKAN]

Radar http://www.meteo.an/Img_Radar_ABC_Cappi_Still.asp

[tolakram]

The shear is less to the south of Tomas, and the fact it's been moving just south of west means it's slowly getting into a better environment. I wonder how far south it will travel before re-strengthening and moving more NW?

[KWT]

The problem is the south of west motion is taking it closer to land and thats not exactly what you want for a system to restrengthen.

Amazing to see how this one has just totally died off in the last few days but then again I'd certainly not rule out another phase of strengthening, hopefully it keeps going west to decrease the threat to Haiti.

[GCANE]

This is about one of the best recoveries I have seen of a naked swirl in quite some time.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 312015.GIF

[tolakram]

[chrisjslucia]

Hello all, last time I was able to connect Tomas was almost here and you all were on page 35. It's taken to page 60 to get power and internet back.No doubt others have posted updates from St Lucia and the Windwards, this is just by way of saying Tomas came and went and we're still here.

[cycloneye]

This is about one of the best recoveries I have seen of a naked swirl in quite some time.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 312015.GIF

Indeed is amazing how this system has gone from a cat2 down in a hurry to a weak TS and maybe ramping up quickly?

GCANE,you have done a great service to all of us with all the different graphics that you post that help us to know what is going on inside a system.

[cycloneye]

Hello all, last time I was able to connect Tomas was almost here and you all were on page 35. It's taken to page 60 to get power and internet back.No doubt others have posted updates from St Lucia and the Windwards, this is just by way of saying Tomas came and went and we're still here.

Great to see you back online and that you are fine.

[Aquawind]

Hmmm looks like Tomas is getting his pants back on..pronto at that..

[cycloneye]

This ramp up is in time for recon to get in there (Flying towards Tomas now) and see what they find.

[GCANE]

This is about one of the best recoveries I have seen of a naked swirl in quite some time.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 312015.GIF

Indeed is amazing how this system has gone from a cat2 down in a hurry to a weak TS and maybe ramping up quickly?

GCANE,you have done a great service to all of us with all the different graphics that you post that help us to know what is going on inside a system.

Thanks Cycloneye. My pleasure. I love watching weather and trying to understand it.