ATL : EX TOMAS - Discussion

[tolakram]

Center back under the convection tops.

LOOP: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

[cycloneye]

This ramp up is in time for recon to get in there (Flying towards Tomas now) and see what they find.

Not so fast as plane returned to base.

[KWT]

A very quick covering up of the LLC, the convection is getting stronger again on the NE side as well, I'm guessing Tomas may well have just found itself better conditions again for now...

[SouthDadeFish]

Hopefully they send another plane out there instead. I'm amazed at how quickly Tomas made a turnaround. Literally in just two hours he looks like a completely different animal. Any hopes that Tomas may die seem crushed now, unfortunately for Haiti and anyone else in the path.

[KWT]

We will have to see whether the system is just in an eddy of lighter shear or whether it really is a longer term thing, I've seen plenty of times systems flare up convection only for it to be gone 6hrs later...

[Dean4Storms]

Likely just still seeing the Convective tops over the LLC but the convection still occurring on just the NE periphery of the LLC. This would be expected but still not a good sign for intensification. If we start to see spiraling convection on the western periphery then it is likely intensifying.

If you continue with the LLC moving west in tandem with the cloud debris overhead you realize the center is just under the very western extent of the TStorm Anvil.

[tolakram]

Convection now popping on the south side of the LLC.

[Weatherfreak000]

Can't win em all I think Wxman47. I see Tomas as a vigorous fighter that will not quit. I never for a second imagined Tomas was weakening for any other reason except climatological issues as far as its location.


I would sure love to see your opinion on this matter. I am going to be bold and say 80% chance it makes it back to hurricane, 40% it still becomes a major. Just my prediction because whenever you see a circulation that is vigorous and doesn't quit, I tend to go on the higher end wind speed projections.


On another note, anyone can explain the intensity forecast bust here? I was sure this was completely unexpected...and now im thinking this becomes a major anyway....ahh the tropics

[wxman57]

Can't win em all I think Wxman47. I see Tomas as a vigorous fighter that will not quit. I never for a second imagined Tomas was weakening for any other reason except climatological issues as far as its location.


I would sure love to see your opinion on this matter. I am going to be bold and say 80% chance it makes it back to hurricane, 40% it still becomes a major. Just my prediction because whenever you see a circulation that is vigorous and doesn't quit, I tend to go on the higher end wind speed projections.


On another note, anyone can explain the intensity forecast bust here? I was sure this was completely unexpected...and now im thinking this becomes a major anyway....ahh the tropics

This is a good demonstration on how lacking the upper-level wind data are across the tropics. The models didn't know about the shear, so they didn't predict the weakening. Of course, we don't know that the wind shear isn't going to spike back up in the next few hours, either. Makes forecasting track/intensity very challenging.

I'm hopeful that the next generation of GOES (GOES-R) which is now delayed to 2015-2016 will help out a great deal with its ability to create vertical wind profiles across the open oceans where data are so sparse.

[GCANE]

Solar heating of the SA landmass appears to be destabilizing the air along the coast.

LL cumulus is forming over land.

Also along the coast line, LL winds seem to be picking up a bit into Tomas.

He still has about 5 hrs of sunlight yet to help feed in unstable air and also heat up the clouds over the LLC.

I think once the sun goes down, there may be about a 3 hour window open where UL air begins to cool and ascent should peak out.

At that time, a hot-tower could fire.


http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/satelli ... .5&lon=-68

[crimi481]

Speaking of NHC not forecasting shear ( 24 hours before shear came) - Last 6-7 Sorm systems that came near (or entered) Gulf, were forecast wrong for same reasons - shear. In each case, intensification was forecast (NHC said all conditions ripe) and just 24 hours later they all weakened significantly. Was up?

[cycloneye]

Good to see that in Haiti,they are on alert and making early preparations.

http://www.miamiherald.com/2010/11/01/1 ... tomas.html

[tolakram]

Speaking of NHC not forecasting shear ( 24 hours before shear came) - Last 6-7 Sorm systems that came near (or entered) Gulf, were forecast wrong for same reasons - shear. In each case, intensification was forecast (NHC said all conditions ripe) and just 24 hours later they all weakened significantly. Was up?

Easy. All shear forecasts stink, there simply aren't any good ones. NHC can only do as well as the models and real time observations permit.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 21, 2010110118, , BEST, 0, 134N, 692W, 40, 1005, TS

Stays at 40kts.

[crimi481]

I am beggining to wonder if Gulf /Chemical oil spill has effected the Gulf Stream currents. Also realease of high amounts Hydrocarbons in atmosphere above Gulf region.

This years Gulf storms acted really strange. (intensity and Tracks)

[TCmet]

Still no watches for Haiti nor Dominican Republic at the 11 AM advisory. When will they start to issue them? I ask because we know how the infrastructure of Haiti is and warning well ahead would be a good thing.

Although the NHC has not issued any watches, the Haitian Government has been on Orange Alert since Saturday. The local authorities and humanitarian workers take these government alerts very seriously. I can assure you that everyone in Haiti with responsibilities for public safety are taking these alerts very seriously. However, with limited resources stretched very thin from the earthquake and the cholera epidemic, preparations will still be limited.... but we are doing the very best we can with what we have.

[crimi481]

Did Tomas make a, baby Tomas? to his S.E.? Looks like rotation there.
Lots of "two's" this year.

[cycloneye]

Still no watches for Haiti nor Dominican Republic at the 11 AM advisory. When will they start to issue them? I ask because we know how the infrastructure of Haiti is and warning well ahead would be a good thing.

Although the NHC has not issued any watches, the Haitian Government has been on Orange Alert since Saturday. The local authorities and humanitarian workers take these government alerts very seriously. I can assure you that everyone in Haiti with responsibilities for public safety are taking these alerts very seriously. However, with limited resources stretched very thin from the earthquake and the cholera epidemic, preparations will still be limited.... but we are doing the very best we can with what we have.

Good to know that they are on alert.In fact,I posted a link from the Miami Herald a few posts up from this one that has information about what you said.

[Macrocane]

This morning I asked myself if the convection was going to last or it was going to be blown away from the center, 5 hours later I see that it's still there and in fact is still increasing, Tomas is not dead yet.

[Epsilon_Fan]

Did Tomas make a, baby Tomas? to his S.E.? Looks like rotation there.
Lots of "two's" this year.

i thought i was imagining this but I think I see a spin forming in the blob to the SE of tomas too.