ATL : EX TOMAS - Discussion

[tolakram]

With new convection firing south of the center it's conceivable that Tomas has built half its eye wall back.



Latest analysis seems to show that Tomas is now under 15 -17kts of shear.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[GCANE]

It was interesting to see that after about 12:00 EDT, a number of small vorticies developed in the exposed portion west of the LLC.

Those in turn have now fired convective cells, one to the NW and the other to the SW of the LLC.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

[tolakram]

Convection appears to be collapsing.

LOOP: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

[cycloneye]

The shear is forecast to decrease in 24 hours.

Code: Select all

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120

SHEAR (KT)        14    15    17    14    10     9     4    14     5     7     9    14    14


[StormSkeptic]

I'm not sold on the strengthening trend. I've been looking at the satellite loops and the Curacao radar for the last few hours and I think the latest convective burst may have significantly disrupted the LLC. Looks like the deep convection started on the NE side and then increased on the SW and S side and the radar presentation was starting to look good with banded convection close to the center. Then it looks like the convection near the center mostly collapsed and now there are a few amorphous blobs to the northeast and southwest on radar and a linear (albeit strong) mess on satellite with little banding evident. I think there is a possibility that the collapse of the earlier convection blew through the center and significantly disrupted it. Very interested to see the evolution over the next few hours.

[tolakram]

I think the problem is now SA, as KWT suspected. Look at the dry air just below Tomas coming off the coast of SA. Not a lot to work with.

[cycloneye]

For the first time,a small portion of Puerto Rico is in the cone.

[Weatherfreak000]

Latest

You can definitely see an eyewall feature in this image trying to reorganize.....who was saying this was weakening?


If anything it's just holding steady.

[StormSkeptic]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc10/ATL/21L.TOMAS/windsat/37v/20101101.1045.coriolis.x.37v.21LTOMAS.40kts-1005mb-136N-682W.81pc.jpg
Latest

You can definitely see an eyewall feature in this image trying to reorganize.....who was saying this was weakening?
If anything it's just holding steady.

Problem is, if I read my times correctly, that image is almost 10 hrs old

[wxman57]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc10/ATL/21L.TOMAS/windsat/37v/20101101.1045.coriolis.x.37v.21LTOMAS.40kts-1005mb-136N-682W.81pc.jpg
Latest

You can definitely see an eyewall feature in this image trying to reorganize.....who was saying this was weakening?
If anything it's just holding steady.

Problem is, if I read my times correctly, that image is almost 10 hrs old

Correct, that image is from early this morning.

[guyclaude08]

I'm not a expert but tropical storm tomas will probably regain strenght it's only a matter of time.It has 3 to 4 days over water again and the shear will come down eventually so we just gotta wait to see what happens.Haiti cannot even take a tropical depression nor a cat 1

[Shuriken]

GFDL not giving anyone a break....

[cycloneye]

I'm not a expert but tropical storm tomas will probably regain strenght it's only a matter of time.It has 3 to 4 days over water again and the shear will come down eventually so we just gotta wait to see what happens.Haiti cannot even take a tropical depression nor a cat 1

You have to prepare at DR even if the landfall occurs west of where you are as you would be on the stronger side of the system.

[wxman57]

It appears that the shear only decreased temporarily. Tomas is suffering again this evening. Would be nice to get a plane out there to see what we have. I'm wondering if it's a TS now, or if the LLC is even still there. I saw at least one easterly wind at 10 kts to the south of where the center is/was.

[Ntxw]

One big mess.

[Tstormwatcher]

Is the spin I see at 65 west and 11 north our Tomas?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-ir2.html

[wxman57]

Is the spin I see at 65 west and 11 north our Tomas?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-ir2.html

No, Tomas' center, if there is one, would be near 13.5N/70.4W, passing north of Aruba now. Can't see anything on that satellite link you posted. But I really cannot see any rotation anymore. Too bad no recon until overnight, I think Tomas may be dead. Certainly it's not a TS now.

[KWT]

that GFDL is amazing, even more so because it has a very realisitic portryal of what Tomas is at the moment, which is probably a barely alive system...yet it still explodes the system....

So still too early to rule this off in the longer term...

[Weatherfreak000]

^^^
IR suggests this thing is already beginning to refire convection. not dead yet.