ATL : EX TOMAS - Discussion

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 21, 2010110200, , BEST, 0, 135N, 704W, 40, 1005, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

Remains at 40kts.

[cycloneye]

The shear is forecast to relax by tommorow night.

Code: Select all

ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *      GOES DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *      OHC  DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *  TOMAS       AL212010  11/02/10  00 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120

SHEAR (KT)        17    19    15    14    11     8    12     7     8     4    25    17    16


[hurricaneCW]

Is the spin I see at 65 west and 11 north our Tomas?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-ir2.html

No, Tomas' center, if there is one, would be near 13.5N/70.4W, passing north of Aruba now. Can't see anything on that satellite link you posted. But I really cannot see any rotation anymore. Too bad no recon until overnight, I think Tomas may be dead. Certainly it's not a TS now.

Does that mean Haiti is in the clear?

[plasticup]

Is the spin I see at 65 west and 11 north our Tomas?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-ir2.html

No, Tomas' center, if there is one, would be near 13.5N/70.4W, passing north of Aruba now. Can't see anything on that satellite link you posted. But I really cannot see any rotation anymore. Too bad no recon until overnight, I think Tomas may be dead. Certainly it's not a TS now.

Does that mean Haiti is in the clear?

Definitely not. They are in for a big rain event, even if Thomas doesn't restrengthen/reform.

[GCANE]

CIMSS is reporting shear at 8.4 m/s. This morning it was 10.5 ms.

Microwave is showing a deepening cell NE of the LLC.

It also is firing off high rain-rate.

[TheDreamTraveler]

CIMSS is reporting shear at 8.4 m/s. This morning it was 10.5 ms.

Microwave is showing a deepening cell NE of the LLC.

It also is firing off high rain-rate.


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... t24hrs.gif


http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_m ... W.97pc.jpg

Shows he's still got some life left in him. And here I thought he was done for. Don't know how much longer he'll be able to hold out though.

[SouthDadeFish]

01/2345 UTC 13.5N 70.4W T1.0/2.0 TOMAS -- Atlantic

Wow....

[Florida1118]

01/2345 UTC 13.5N 70.4W T1.0/2.0 TOMAS -- Atlantic

Wow....

I'm calling TD at 11...or Post-Tropical.

[Dean4Storms]

It is really looking bad tonight. Maybe a TD and even then a very poorly disorganized TD.

[Florida1118]

And he's still a TS.

[mf_dolphin]

Probably a "continuity" call. No concrete information to the contrary and it offers a path of least regret for now.

[TheDreamTraveler]

The convection firing up now looks much more promising compared to a little while ago.

[FireRat]

NHC mentions "SATELLITE
ESTIMATES OF T2.5/3.0 FROM TAFB AND T2.6/2.7 FROM THE OBJECTIVE
ADT."

Looks like status quo for now. Maybe TD by morning? I believe that if the shear doesn't let up by this time tomorrow, it's pretty much a done deal as far as getting a hurricane out of Tomas again.

[wxman57]

Probably a "continuity" call. No concrete information to the contrary and it offers a path of least regret for now.

Right, they'll wait for recon to be sure before making any big changes.

[cycloneye]

Lets see what the plane finds in the overnight mission.

[Florida1118]

HPC suggesting this is Post-tropical by day 6

[Battlebrick]

WOW look at that convection.. but will it last? We'll see.

[abajan]

WOW look at that convection.. but will it last? We'll see.

Yep. That’s some serious convection alright! Just ask those in Curacao:



Most unusual weather for them. They’re usually quite dry but lately they seem to be getting heavy rain events more frequently.

[Sanibel]

When a system, decoupled or not, explodes black IR like that it is no time to be calling TD - trust me:

[Ntxw]

^ Some of the flare ups around him and especially in SA are just as impressive. He's bubbled and bursted several times. It's what happens under all that which counts. When he decides to maintain that burst for a prolonged time, I'd put more worry into it. But I agree, the latest firing is very impressive.