ATL : EX TOMAS - Discussion
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Ivanhater
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Unfortunately, Tomas did not die yesterday. Conditions only get more favorable from here..and downright very favorable for intensification.
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tolakram
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Difficult to see any organization in that mess of very heavy convection. Recon will tell all.
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion
even Curqacao has received bad flooding from Tomas
http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/current/curacao.shtml
http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/current/curacao.shtml
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Too many hurricanes to remember
Re: ATL : TOMAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion
When I saw the Euro and the 18z GFS yesterday I thought "wow this would be the worst case scenario for Hispaniola" but I took it with a grain of salt, now that the NHC mentions this "THEREFORE THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD LINGER NEAR NORTHERN HISPANIOLA FOR A DAY OR TWO..." I am very worried, weak steering currents can be very bad in Central America we had our own "collapse of steering currents" with Mitch. By the way, I believe that those damages in ST. Lucia, St. Vincent and ABC islands are enough to say that Tomas will be retired.
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vbhoutex
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Wow!! That is terrible!! I don't understand why the media doesn't report on situations like this. We have heard nothing about Curacao having problems. Prayers going out that they can recover quickly.
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Skywarn, C.E.R.T.
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Shear continues to drop.
At 12Z CIMMS has shear at 8.0 m/s
Anti-cyclone closing in on the LLC.
At 12Z CIMMS has shear at 8.0 m/s
Anti-cyclone closing in on the LLC.
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Gustywind
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Here is a complete and informative summary of TOMAS episode after its nasty trip on Guadeloupe... As a conclusion, you can see you how a "small" (so vicious 
) CAT 1 CANE can have serious effects on the islands 
, even those who are situated 200 or 300 km further north of the system as Guadeloupe. Let's hope that this feature will the last one of the season, REALLY! But as you know, anything can happens in the Tropics, wait and see. Keep the faith for the others, prayers and best thoughts from our carib heart my neighbours in all the carib:)
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... -99933.php
TOMAS shook the region
V. d. France-French West Indies Guadeloupe 02.11.2010
The coast of the South of the archipelago suffered a heavy swell, here at Anse-Vinaigri. 5.5 Metre troughs have been recorded at Grande Vigie. (STÉPHANE SISCO)
Little thunderstorm, but heavy rain, wind gusts and marked swells, especially in the South of the archipelago. The passage of cyclone Tomas region did little damage in Guadeloupe. Martinique, St. Lucia, Barbados were more seriously affected. Hurricane strengthens toward Haiti.
Sunday morning, Guadeloupe is awakened in the '' grey in vigilance weather yellow level for "rains, thunderstorms, strong winds and rough seas. For Norbert Aouizerats, head of centre at weather France, "the tendency was to improve", Tomas cyclone evacuated to the West. In the day the wind fell and swell has been less while rain disappearing.
The cyclone season sometimes have a trajectory erratic, and therefore not easily predictable. Lee-Windward coast remembers Omar in October 2008... But Tomas broadly followed the planned path. "He stayed in the South, quite far from home, then took the direction West-North-West". Now it is quiet. "12: 00 Sunday, weather France newsletter announced a return to the Green level of vigilance.
Wind: 94 km to Baillif
In contrast to Martinique, strongly affected by the passage of cyclone Tomas in the South of the Caribbean arc (read below), Guadeloupe had been generally spared by the phenomenon. She however suffered in the peripheral effects. Particularly the archipelago South: Basse-Terre, South coast south of Saint-François (Pointe des Châteaux), Sainte-Anne and Le Gosier. Thunderstorm activity was low, but numerous showers. 119 mm ((1) precipitation was recorded at portion, 76 mm to 75 mm in Basse-Terre, 64 mm at Sainte-Anne, 54 mm Baie-Mahault, Pointe-Noire 42 mm at Saint-François and Baillif.)
Enough sustained winds were recorded: 94 km/h at Baillif, 83 km/h at La Desirade, 61 km/h at Sainte-Anne and 79 km/h at the Raizet. And a strong swell swept on some shores. Troughs of 5, 5 m were observed at the Grande Vigie buoy. Norbert Aouizerats said they were able to 6 to 6.5 metres at sea.
The range of the Toubana suffered storm hit (S.S.) (1) 1 mm = 1 litre per square metre.
-Big damage to Barbados, St. Lucia and St. Vincent
Pulled roofs, houses damaged power lines on the ground, flooded roads. With its (120 km/h) winds and torrential rains, Tomas cyclone caused major damage, Saturday, Barbados, St. Lucia and St. Vincent. In Saint Lucia, according to information communicated to the association contacts and research Caribbean (CORECA) by one of its corresponding "several public schools have been damaged." Many houses are out of use, leaving some families homeless. "Island is private electricity and communications remain difficult.
-60_000 homes without electricity in Martinique
Hurricane Tomas left traces in Martinique. According to EDF, 60000 customers have been deprived of electricity between Saturday and Sunday. All municipalities in the North and South, with the exception of those in the centre of the island, have been affected. Yesterday evening, hundreds of homes were still not light. Disturbances were also announced in air traffic. RN 5, completely flooded, was cut to Rivière Salée for two hours and a deviation has been implemented. Three families had to be relocated and a car was swept away by the flood.
20-70% of the bananas were lying by storm in the North Atlantic. At the level of the cane, the damage is limited. Canes should leave by harvest, but this episode will affect its quality.
-Emergency in Haiti
Tomas, demoted Sunday evening in tropical storm is weakened, but should regain forces again today. It is moving toward the Northwest. Weather services in the country, Tomas could hit Haiti within next 72 hours with heavy rains and high winds, potentially causing often deadly landslides. Haiti faces currently a cholera epidemic (337 deaths counted) and thousands of people are still refugees in villages in tents since the earthquake of 12 January. UN agencies have indicated to be all of their assistance to populations who may be affected. They have particular routed in certain areas of the country enough fuel for a week where roads become impassable. Haitian, UN agencies and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) authorities work together to pré-positionner stocks help and prepare to cope with hurricane. The International Red Cross sent material in 13 locations in Haiti to 25000 families.
Saint-Lucia: tourists stranded at the airport
The voltage is mounted to one notch yesterday afternoon at the airport in Castries Saint Lucia. Air Caribbean, passengers whose flights have been suspended, have invested the counter of the company, particularly hauled.
"What you want, is to be informed and that cared for us, explains David Baudoin, French tourists whose family lived in Guadeloupe. Since Saturday, they are 80 people, tourists guadeloupian, Martinique and metropolitan, to be stranded at the airport. Air Caribbean failing to support nights hotel, difficult for these families to find a solution for shelter.
"Those who have failed to find shelter had to sleep in their car rental or altogether outside, says David Baudoin." We are well aware of the seriousness of the situation in Saint Lucia, but Sunday, the company should provide additional flights. "Other companies, such as the Liat have adapted. Yesterday, in the middle of the afternoon, tourists have learned that an exceptional flight was chartered in the evening, at 20: 55 in the direction of Fort-de-France, in addition to the scheduled flight. A good part of the travellers had still to unravel a night more.
"We have done with the edge means says Véronique Malialin, charge Air Caribbean communication." This weekend all saints, all our flights were complete and our aircraft incurred between France Fort and Pointe-à-Pitre. "We were obliged to meet scheduled flights.
Extra flights are normally scheduled today so that the last French tourists leave Saint Lucia.
-GUIDES
Disturbed inter-island connections
Consequence of choppy, interruption Saturday maritime rotations, including between France Fort and Guadeloupe and Marie-Galante and Pointe-à-Pitre. They resumed Sunday morning.
Cut roads
Firefighters are mostly out to clear roads cluttered by some branches, trees or poles (Roujol/Petit-Canal, Blanchet Goubeyre, coffee Deshaies, Ducharmoy portion, Beausoleil/Pointe-Noire...). Between Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning, routes of Guadeloupe teams conducted clearances road, especially in southern Basse-Terre and Coast Lee-vent 40. Periodic penalty payments teams had to be strengthened is 30 people mobilized. Sunday morning, only 11 RD which leads to the yellow Bains was still cut, but its release was imminent. At mamelles, some falling trees, but no landslide. The road to the crossing was not closed.
EDF: a few cuts
The side of EDF, not to report damage, but some "small glitches" Sud Basse-Terre and the Holy. For most of the cable-driven falling branches, trees or posts. But everything would go in the order by the end of the day.
Rescued at sea
The most notable interventions took place at sea. Saturday (circa 2100 hours), a sailing vessel was in difficulty among pig islet and Petit-Bourg. The three passengers were recovered by rescuers and evacuated to the hospital. One of them was wounded in the head. Yesterday morning, it was marie-galantais fisherman who was rescued. He was reported missing at sea since the previous evening. Party put his boat to shelter a little after 6 p.m., he fell in engine failure. It drifted throughout the night. Given the weather conditions, the rescuers could not out at sea, or the helicopter. Research was triggered at 6 a.m., but it is an oil tanker - lamentin - has recovered it off the coast of the Holy safe and secure. Finally, in the fishing port of Saint-François, a small star broke its moorings Saturday evening and sank. It impedes the entry or exit of vessels.
) CAT 1 CANE can have serious effects on the islands , even those who are situated 200 or 300 km further north of the system as Guadeloupe. Let's hope that this feature will the last one of the season, REALLY! But as you know, anything can happens in the Tropics, wait and see. Keep the faith for the others, prayers and best thoughts from our carib heart my neighbours in all the carib:) http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... -99933.phpTOMAS shook the region
V. d. France-French West Indies Guadeloupe 02.11.2010
The coast of the South of the archipelago suffered a heavy swell, here at Anse-Vinaigri. 5.5 Metre troughs have been recorded at Grande Vigie. (STÉPHANE SISCO)
Little thunderstorm, but heavy rain, wind gusts and marked swells, especially in the South of the archipelago. The passage of cyclone Tomas region did little damage in Guadeloupe. Martinique, St. Lucia, Barbados were more seriously affected. Hurricane strengthens toward Haiti.
Sunday morning, Guadeloupe is awakened in the '' grey in vigilance weather yellow level for "rains, thunderstorms, strong winds and rough seas. For Norbert Aouizerats, head of centre at weather France, "the tendency was to improve", Tomas cyclone evacuated to the West. In the day the wind fell and swell has been less while rain disappearing.
The cyclone season sometimes have a trajectory erratic, and therefore not easily predictable. Lee-Windward coast remembers Omar in October 2008... But Tomas broadly followed the planned path. "He stayed in the South, quite far from home, then took the direction West-North-West". Now it is quiet. "12: 00 Sunday, weather France newsletter announced a return to the Green level of vigilance.
Wind: 94 km to Baillif
In contrast to Martinique, strongly affected by the passage of cyclone Tomas in the South of the Caribbean arc (read below), Guadeloupe had been generally spared by the phenomenon. She however suffered in the peripheral effects. Particularly the archipelago South: Basse-Terre, South coast south of Saint-François (Pointe des Châteaux), Sainte-Anne and Le Gosier. Thunderstorm activity was low, but numerous showers. 119 mm ((1) precipitation was recorded at portion, 76 mm to 75 mm in Basse-Terre, 64 mm at Sainte-Anne, 54 mm Baie-Mahault, Pointe-Noire 42 mm at Saint-François and Baillif.)
Enough sustained winds were recorded: 94 km/h at Baillif, 83 km/h at La Desirade, 61 km/h at Sainte-Anne and 79 km/h at the Raizet. And a strong swell swept on some shores. Troughs of 5, 5 m were observed at the Grande Vigie buoy. Norbert Aouizerats said they were able to 6 to 6.5 metres at sea.
The range of the Toubana suffered storm hit (S.S.) (1) 1 mm = 1 litre per square metre.
-Big damage to Barbados, St. Lucia and St. Vincent
Pulled roofs, houses damaged power lines on the ground, flooded roads. With its (120 km/h) winds and torrential rains, Tomas cyclone caused major damage, Saturday, Barbados, St. Lucia and St. Vincent. In Saint Lucia, according to information communicated to the association contacts and research Caribbean (CORECA) by one of its corresponding "several public schools have been damaged." Many houses are out of use, leaving some families homeless. "Island is private electricity and communications remain difficult.
-60_000 homes without electricity in Martinique
Hurricane Tomas left traces in Martinique. According to EDF, 60000 customers have been deprived of electricity between Saturday and Sunday. All municipalities in the North and South, with the exception of those in the centre of the island, have been affected. Yesterday evening, hundreds of homes were still not light. Disturbances were also announced in air traffic. RN 5, completely flooded, was cut to Rivière Salée for two hours and a deviation has been implemented. Three families had to be relocated and a car was swept away by the flood.
20-70% of the bananas were lying by storm in the North Atlantic. At the level of the cane, the damage is limited. Canes should leave by harvest, but this episode will affect its quality.
-Emergency in Haiti
Tomas, demoted Sunday evening in tropical storm is weakened, but should regain forces again today. It is moving toward the Northwest. Weather services in the country, Tomas could hit Haiti within next 72 hours with heavy rains and high winds, potentially causing often deadly landslides. Haiti faces currently a cholera epidemic (337 deaths counted) and thousands of people are still refugees in villages in tents since the earthquake of 12 January. UN agencies have indicated to be all of their assistance to populations who may be affected. They have particular routed in certain areas of the country enough fuel for a week where roads become impassable. Haitian, UN agencies and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) authorities work together to pré-positionner stocks help and prepare to cope with hurricane. The International Red Cross sent material in 13 locations in Haiti to 25000 families.
Saint-Lucia: tourists stranded at the airport
The voltage is mounted to one notch yesterday afternoon at the airport in Castries Saint Lucia. Air Caribbean, passengers whose flights have been suspended, have invested the counter of the company, particularly hauled.
"What you want, is to be informed and that cared for us, explains David Baudoin, French tourists whose family lived in Guadeloupe. Since Saturday, they are 80 people, tourists guadeloupian, Martinique and metropolitan, to be stranded at the airport. Air Caribbean failing to support nights hotel, difficult for these families to find a solution for shelter.
"Those who have failed to find shelter had to sleep in their car rental or altogether outside, says David Baudoin." We are well aware of the seriousness of the situation in Saint Lucia, but Sunday, the company should provide additional flights. "Other companies, such as the Liat have adapted. Yesterday, in the middle of the afternoon, tourists have learned that an exceptional flight was chartered in the evening, at 20: 55 in the direction of Fort-de-France, in addition to the scheduled flight. A good part of the travellers had still to unravel a night more.
"We have done with the edge means says Véronique Malialin, charge Air Caribbean communication." This weekend all saints, all our flights were complete and our aircraft incurred between France Fort and Pointe-à-Pitre. "We were obliged to meet scheduled flights.
Extra flights are normally scheduled today so that the last French tourists leave Saint Lucia.
-GUIDES
Disturbed inter-island connections
Consequence of choppy, interruption Saturday maritime rotations, including between France Fort and Guadeloupe and Marie-Galante and Pointe-à-Pitre. They resumed Sunday morning.
Cut roads
Firefighters are mostly out to clear roads cluttered by some branches, trees or poles (Roujol/Petit-Canal, Blanchet Goubeyre, coffee Deshaies, Ducharmoy portion, Beausoleil/Pointe-Noire...). Between Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning, routes of Guadeloupe teams conducted clearances road, especially in southern Basse-Terre and Coast Lee-vent 40. Periodic penalty payments teams had to be strengthened is 30 people mobilized. Sunday morning, only 11 RD which leads to the yellow Bains was still cut, but its release was imminent. At mamelles, some falling trees, but no landslide. The road to the crossing was not closed.
EDF: a few cuts
The side of EDF, not to report damage, but some "small glitches" Sud Basse-Terre and the Holy. For most of the cable-driven falling branches, trees or posts. But everything would go in the order by the end of the day.
Rescued at sea
The most notable interventions took place at sea. Saturday (circa 2100 hours), a sailing vessel was in difficulty among pig islet and Petit-Bourg. The three passengers were recovered by rescuers and evacuated to the hospital. One of them was wounded in the head. Yesterday morning, it was marie-galantais fisherman who was rescued. He was reported missing at sea since the previous evening. Party put his boat to shelter a little after 6 p.m., he fell in engine failure. It drifted throughout the night. Given the weather conditions, the rescuers could not out at sea, or the helicopter. Research was triggered at 6 a.m., but it is an oil tanker - lamentin - has recovered it off the coast of the Holy safe and secure. Finally, in the fishing port of Saint-François, a small star broke its moorings Saturday evening and sank. It impedes the entry or exit of vessels.
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wxman57
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Latest models appear to be giving up on the idea of Tomas hanging around Haiti/DR for very long. They have Tomas accelerating NE as it passes over Haiti. That would still produce a lot of rain and some strong wind, though.
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Important excerpt of 11 AM discussion.
SEVERAL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE TROUGH WILL
NOT COMPLETELY CAPTURE TOMAS AND THERE REMAINS A LARGE DISAGREEMENT
IN THE FUTURE POSITION OF THE CYCLONE AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS OF LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THAT TIME PERIOD AND IS NEAR A
CONSENSUS OF THE GFS...GFDL... UKMET...NOGAPS...AND ECMWF MODELS.
SEVERAL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE TROUGH WILL
NOT COMPLETELY CAPTURE TOMAS AND THERE REMAINS A LARGE DISAGREEMENT
IN THE FUTURE POSITION OF THE CYCLONE AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS OF LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THAT TIME PERIOD AND IS NEAR A
CONSENSUS OF THE GFS...GFDL... UKMET...NOGAPS...AND ECMWF MODELS.
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion
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plasticup
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plasticup
Re: ATL : TOMAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion
wxman57 wrote:Latest models appear to be giving up on the idea of Tomas hanging around Haiti/DR for very long.
But they are also losing their consensus on whether Thomas gets picked up by the trough. 06 GFS shows the storm missing the trough and moving east near Puerto Rico on day 5. The Caribbean could get a double-dip if that verifies.
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jconsor
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Most of the ECMWF ensemble members have the trough picking up Tomas, and show him accelerating significantly as he approaches and passes Hispaniola. They indicate a threat to Bermuda by late Saturday or Sunday. I can see the trough not completely picking him up and causing Tomas to slow down, but if this occurred, by the time the trough bypasses Tomas he should already be near 25N latitude.
The models this year have had a substantial bias of failing to properly accelerate recurving tropical cyclones when there is a deep trough to the N/NW - Danielle and Igor are good examples.
The models this year have had a substantial bias of failing to properly accelerate recurving tropical cyclones when there is a deep trough to the N/NW - Danielle and Igor are good examples.
wxman57 wrote:Latest models appear to be giving up on the idea of Tomas hanging around Haiti/DR for very long. They have Tomas accelerating NE as it passes over Haiti. That would still produce a lot of rain and some strong wind, though.
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Gustywind
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000
WTNT31 KNHC 021452
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 AM EDT TUE NOV 02 2010
...TOMAS CONTINUES WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 72.6W
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM S OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WTNT31 KNHC 021452
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 AM EDT TUE NOV 02 2010
...TOMAS CONTINUES WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 72.6W
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM S OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
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