SE TX/SW LA weather: Much cooler and WET after Tuesday

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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Who stole Fall? Record temps next wk?

#5101 Postby southerngale » Thu Oct 28, 2010 3:12 am

vbhoutex wrote:1989 is one of the analog years being used for this winter. We had a few severe cold blasts that winter but overall it was a mild winter on average.
Tomorrow should be a whole lot cooler than today in SE TX. We set another record high in Houston today with a high of 94f


I could live with that. We got snow on December 22, 1989! Measurable snow.

Btw, I was awakened a few minutes ago by thunder! Getting a thunderstorm right now. Water falling from the sky... a wonderful sound.

We have a Red Flag Warning and Wind Advisory for Thursday. I don't know if it's enough rain to help, but hopefully so.
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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Record temps, then fall returns.

#5102 Postby srainhoutx » Thu Oct 28, 2010 3:45 pm

I can almost smell that chili cooking... :cheesy:

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS THE TEMPS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WILL LIKELY
SEE AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT ON FRIDAY NIGHT. SO EXPECT
TO SEE TEMPS FALL INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS RURAL AREAS IN
CENTRAL ZONES AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. ATTM IT DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE IT WILL FREEZE...BUT WILL LIKELY GET CLOSE AT CXO.

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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Who stole Fall? Record temps next wk?

#5103 Postby Ptarmigan » Thu Oct 28, 2010 8:42 pm

vbhoutex wrote:1989 is one of the analog years being used for this winter. We had a few severe cold blasts that winter but overall it was a mild winter on average.
Tomorrow should be a whole lot cooler than today in SE TX. We set another record high in Houston today with a high of 94f!


Interesting you mentioned 1989-90 winter, which was really cold in December and that turned out to be quite mild. Where did you get that information? I know 1989-90 was Neutral phase of ENSO. I am more thinking this winter is like 1988-89, which was a strong La Nina, which also had a huge freeze that winter, only comparable to 1951.
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#5104 Postby SaskatchewanScreamer » Fri Oct 29, 2010 2:53 am

I read someone's forecast here that for Texas to have a cold winter the North had to have a lot of snow. Well Saskatchewan, Canada (more or less directly North of you folks) had quite the storm two days ago (I haven't seen this much snow since I was a child)....take a look at the pictures of Regina, Saskatchewan (about 45 minutes away from my location) posted in this thread: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=105266&hilit=&start=720

Y'all just might get the winter of your dreams (or nightmares) :eek: :wink:
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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Record temps, then fall returns.

#5105 Postby srainhoutx » Sat Oct 30, 2010 8:12 am

38 this morning at DW Hooks!
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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Record temps, then fall returns.

#5106 Postby srainhoutx » Sat Oct 30, 2010 5:45 pm

What is this I see? RAIN??? :double:

FXUS64 KHGX 302052
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
352 PM CDT SAT OCT 30 2010

.DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SCALE TRANSITION...FROM ONE OF RIDGING OVER STATE TO
DEEP WESTERN TROUGHING WITHIN THE NEXT 48-60 HOURS...IS CURRENTLY
BEING SEEN ON W/V IMAGERY PER BROAD WESTERN TROUGH UPSTREAM OF
EASTERN-MOVING SOUTHERN U.S. HIGH. THE EVOLUTION OF THIS WEST
COAST 5H TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY WILL INCREASE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY INTO LIKELY
CATEGORIES EARLY TUESDAY. THE MAIN THREAT(S) WILL BE ISOLATED
SEVERE AND HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA ON
TUESDAY.

IN THE SHORT TERM...A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE AND SOMEWHAT FLAT
REGIONAL PRESSURE GRADIENT MAKING FOR A COMFORTABLE LATE OCTOBER
DAY OVER EASTERN TEXAS. LOWERING WESTERN STATE PRESSURES HAS
AFTERNOON WINDS WAKING UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST...THUS DEW POINTS
WILL GRADUALLY CLIMB...FROM THEIR CURRENT UPPER 20S (NORTH) TO NEAR
40F (COAST)...UP INTO THE AVERAGE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S BY LATE
TOMORROW NIGHT. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A LL WIND AND A SATURATING
LOWER 5K TO SUPPORT A STRATUS DECK BY SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING VERSUS
ANY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG...JUST LOCALIZED SHALLOW FOG DEVELOPMENT.
WAA PATTERN THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL HAVE POPS BACK UP TO
CHANCE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FA AS STREAMER SHOWERS FORM
UNDER A DETERIORATING 8H WARM NOSE. CAP TOTALLY ERODES BY MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY`S SOUNDINGS INDICATE A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY MORNING. A POSITIVELY-TILTING TROUGH
SETTLING DOWN OVER THE STATE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY`S
SUNRISE PLACES THE BEST DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS OVER THE
CWA. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO PUMP TO BETWEEN 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES AHEAD
OF TUESDAY`S MID-LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY PASSAGE.

THE LIKELIHOOD OF A DEVELOPING MCS (OR A SQUALL LINE) WILL BE
DETERMINED UPON THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE LL SHEAR. A PRE-FRONTAL
TROF AHEAD OF A MAIN NORTH/CENTRAL TX QLCS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
0-3KM SRH...WITH DECENT SOUTHERLY INTAKE BELOW ESTABLISHED MID-
UPPER LEVEL SW`ERLIES...TO PROVIDE ENOUGH LL VEERING WITH HGT TO
MAKE FOR A TERTIARY THREAT OF ROTATING CELLS. PROG SOUNDING STORM
PARAMETERS MORE STRONGLY SUGGEST ISOLATED SEVERE WITH WIND AND
RAIN BEING THE LEADING THREATS. THE MAIN SURFACE FRONT TO REACH
THE COAST SOMETIME AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY...WITH A BROAD CUT-OFF
LOW HEADING S-SE OVER THE COASTAL BEND/WESTERN GULF THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY. DUE TO RECENT RUN-TO-RUN ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT...AND THE SW
ATLANTIC RIDGE MAINTAINING ITS GROUND...CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT
IT WILL BE AN OVERCAST AND COOL MID-WEEK WITH LINGERING MODERATE
RAIN CHANCES. AS THIS LOW MEANDERS INTO THE GULF...WITH THE MID-
LEVEL FRONT SLIDING SOUTH IN ITS WAKE...AN OVERRUNNING UPPER LEVEL
DRY COOLER NE`ERN AIR MASS ATOP A WARMER MOIST LOWER LAYER WOULD
PRODUCE WRAP-AROUND OVERCAST CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.

THUS...AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS IN THE AVERAGE MIDDLE 80S...MID WEEK
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO ACHIEVE 70F.

CAA AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THIS EXITING LOW...ALONG WITH A REINFORCING
CENTRAL PLAINS HIGH DIVING SOUTH...WILL PICK UP NORTHERLIES (ESP. OVER
LOCAL WATERS) AND INITIATE A MAINLY CLEAR AND DRY LATE WEEK WEATHER
PATTERN. THE TAKE HOME MESSAGE IS...AS WE HEAD OUT OF THE FIRST
WEEK OF NOVEMBER...DIURNAL TEMPERATURE BEHAVIOR IS FORECAST TO BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AT BOTH ENDS OF THE SPECTRUM. A RETURN TO
CHILLY MORNINGS...WHILE AFTERNOON READINGS WILL WARM INTO THE MORE
REGULATED 70S. 31

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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Record temps, then fall returns.

#5107 Postby Ptarmigan » Sat Oct 30, 2010 8:56 pm

Good riddance to that cockroach ridge that has deprived us of rain. :D :grrr:
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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Severe Weather Then Cooler.

#5108 Postby srainhoutx » Sun Oct 31, 2010 4:14 pm

Our long boring weather pattern is about to make a 180. It is becoming a bit clearer that we may have some severe weather ahead from Monday afternoon/evening until Tuesday morning across the area. Folks need to pay close attention since it has been a while for this type of set up. Our severe weather folks will likely be very active over the next 36-40 hours.
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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Record temps, then fall returns.

#5109 Postby srainhoutx » Mon Nov 01, 2010 7:49 am

Rain and Storms in the Cactus Thread... :double:

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0735 AM CDT MON NOV 01 2010

VALID 011300Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT FROM
THE ARKLATEX TO S CENTRAL TX...

...ARKLATEX TO S CENTRAL TX LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...
A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER CO WILL DIG SEWD TOWARD CENTRAL
TX BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM HEIGHT RISES
OVER THE NRN ROCKIES TODAY. A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
ERN OK TO CENTRAL TX WILL MOVE SLOWLY SEWD TODAY...AND THEN BEGIN TO
ACCELERATE SEWD TOWARD THE TX COAST TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE TX/LA BORDER. IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IS ALREADY UNDERWAY ACROSS THE NW
GULF COAST WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED TO THE
LOW-MID 70S.

WEAK LOW-LEVEL WAA AND CONTINUED MOISTENING WILL SUPPORT THE GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST
AND SW LA. MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
FARTHER NW LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM THE
AMPLIFYING MIDLEVEL TROUGH OVERSPREADS THE SURFACE FRONT. THE
PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT FROM THE ARKLATEX SWD INTO ERN AND S CENTRAL
TX WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING...SUCH
THAT MLCAPE SHOULD REACH 1500-2500 J/KG. DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR
IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL
CLUSTERS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS...WITHIN A LARGER CONVECTIVE BAND
WHICH WILL EVOLVE LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. MODERATE MLCAPE...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AOA 7 C/KM AND
RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SUGGEST THAT LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT THIS EVENING...WHILE DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT OF STORM INTERACTIONS AND A MORE LINEAR
CONVECTIVE MODE.

..THOMPSON/STOPPKOTTE.. 11/01/2010
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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Record temps, then fall returns.

#5110 Postby srainhoutx » Mon Nov 01, 2010 9:19 am

HPC:

LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CURRENTLY
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL BREAK APART
BY THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER SYSTEM REACHES WEST TEXAS. THE UPPER
ENERGY IS FORECAST TO BE RATHER STRONG...DEEPENING INTO A CLOSED
LOW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WHICH WILL DROP A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH
TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT
SOUTH TEXAS WILL STILL BE HOT TODAY...BY MID WEEK HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE FALLEN 5 TO 15 BELOW AVERAGE FOR
THE EASTERN HALF OF TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

COUNTERCLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL DRAW GULF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WHICH WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN BEGINNING THIS
EVENING AND LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY.

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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Record temps, then fall returns.

#5111 Postby vbhoutex » Mon Nov 01, 2010 2:12 pm

Jeff's take on the weather this week in SE TX:

Highly active weather period in store for the region

After nearly 6 weeks of dry weather, it all end today/tonight as a strong upper level storm system moves toward the area.

Today:

Upper trough over the northern Rockies will deepen and move SE into TX as it closes off into an upper level low. At the surface strong warm air advection will bring copious amounts of Gulf moisture into the region. Already dewpoints have risen into the low to mid 70’s over the southern half of the area with radar showing isolated to scattered activity along the coast. Moisture will continue to increase today and air mass will become increasingly unstable by late morning into early afternoon supporting the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Even with widespread clouds and developing rain showers record highs in the upper 80’s to low 90’s are possible this afternoon.

Tonight:

Strong cold front and upper level trough come to bear in a very moist and unstable air mass. The result will be widespread thunderstorms some of which will become severe. Models show very strong lift overspreading the region after 600pm this evening as cold front enters our northern counties. Expect rapid explosion of thunderstorms from near Austin to Texarkana along the leading edge of the front similar to the depiction of the 00z 4km WRF model. Instability and shear will support severe weather with the main threats being damaging winds and large hail. With the cooling of the mid levels by mid evening…severe hail will likely become the main threat overnight and SPC has outlooked the entire area for a slight risk of severe thunderstorms tonight. Squall line looks to develop along the front and push southward across the region overnight into Tuesday morning. With upper level winds slowly becoming increasingly parallel to the boundary this line will slow over the southern ½ of the region after midnight supporting an increasing threat of excessive rainfall. Front should reach the coast by 600-800am Tuesday, with showers lingering for a few hours.
Widespread rains of .5-1.5 inches are expected tonight which will greatly ease the ongoing drought and fire weather issues. Isolated amounts of 2-4 inches will be possible especially south of I-10 where the front slows. Some urban flash flooding will be possible given the potential for a quick 1-2 inches of rainfall in less than an hour under the strongest convection.

Tuesday:

Area will be dry slotted on the SW side of the upper low over N TX and expect to see clearing skies by late morning behind the cold front. Temperatures will warm into the mid 70’s under NW winds.

Tuesday night-Wednesday night:

Upper low over N TX moves SSE right across SE TX resulting in large scale isentropic lifting. Low level stratus clouds will rapidly fill in across the area early Tuesday evening with light rain developing from N to S across the region by Wednesday morning. Expect off and on light to moderate rains on Wednesday under cold air advection resulting in very cool daytime highs. In fact some locations may not get out of the 50’s on Wednesday.

Thursday-Saturday:

Upper low will exit the region to the SE late Wednesday with a secondary strong cold front arriving early Thursday. Strong 1030mb Canadian high pressure will spill done the Rockies into TX with 850mb temperatures falling into the 5-7C range. Very strong cold air advection on strong N winds will keep highs on the cool side through the entire period. In fact highs on Friday may only reach the lower to mid 60’s even under sunny skies. High pressure settles overhead Friday night resulting in near ideal radiational cooling conditions. Lows should bottom out in the mid 30’s north and west to mid 40’s along the coast with highs next Saturday recovering into the upper 60’s.
Cold air pouring over the warm NW Gulf waters Thursday will support very strong coastal water winds. Sustained winds of 25-35mph with gusts of 40-50mph will be possible over the coastal waters Thursday. A Gale Warning may be required for Thursday.
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#5112 Postby southerngale » Mon Nov 01, 2010 2:19 pm

We had a little thunderstorm earlier today. Not a lot of rain, but some. We have a Special Weather Statement out saying that funnel clouds are possible. The sun is out now... haven't had time to keep up with the weather and just now saw the forecast. Wow! High chances tonight and tomorrow! I'm gonna read the stuff posted above now. I hope the rain doesn't keep voters away tomorrow.

We hit 37 the other morning!! It sure warmed up quickly though.
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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Much cooler and WET after Tuesday

#5113 Postby jasons2k » Mon Nov 01, 2010 2:35 pm

I am so happy to finally see some rain in the forecast. The past few weeks was probably the worst pine needle drop I have ever witnessed - those things wreak havoc on the pool equipment!
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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Much cooler and WET after Tuesday

#5114 Postby srainhoutx » Mon Nov 01, 2010 3:27 pm

SPC Update...

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0243 PM CDT MON NOV 01 2010

VALID 012000Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF EAST
TX...WESTERN AR...AND WESTERN LA......

LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SLOWER ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND
COVERAGE OF STORMS WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA THAN THE PAST FEW
GFS/NAM MODEL RUNS. WIDESPREAD NON-SEVERE CONVECTION WAS CURRENTLY
LOCATED WITHIN ZONE OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER SERN TX/SRN
LA...BUT THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN SERN TX AND SHIFT NEWD AS
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE REDEVELOPS NWD...AS UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS AND DROPS SWD INTO TX.

SURFACE CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ALONG THE FRONT
AS CU HAVE RECENTLY BEEN NOTED DEVELOPING ALONG THIS SYSTEM IN NERN
TX AND CENTRAL TX NEAR A TXK TO TEMPLE LINE. THE STRENGTHENING LARGE
SCALE FORCING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD HELP DRIVE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT BY LATE TODAY...PROBABLY AROUND OR AFTER 00Z GIVEN THE
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS FAVORABLE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO
BECOME WIDESPREAD ALONG THE SEWD MOVING FRONT OVERNIGHT. IT STILL
APPEARS THAT GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

..IMY.. 11/01/2010
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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Much cooler and WET after Tuesday

#5115 Postby CajunMama » Mon Nov 01, 2010 4:45 pm

jasons wrote:I am so happy to finally see some rain in the forecast. The past few weeks was probably the worst pine needle drop I have ever witnessed - those things wreak havoc on the pool equipment!


I'm so happy to SEE rain :) Hopefully this can be the start of reducing our 19.58" rainfall deficit.
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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Much cooler and WET after Tuesday

#5116 Postby srainhoutx » Mon Nov 01, 2010 6:37 pm

Here we go...

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2031
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0624 PM CDT MON NOV 01 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 012324Z - 020100Z

IT IS NOT YET CERTAIN THAT A WW WILL BE NEEDED. BUT TRENDS ARE
BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT.

THE LOW-LEVEL FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING REMAINS
A BIT UNCLEAR. BUT SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS
UNDERWAY NEAR THE JUXTAPOSITION OF THE AXIS OF STRONGER PRE-FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND THE AXIS OF RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE RETURN /AS CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER 70S SURFACE DEW
POINTS/...NEAR THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS COASTAL
PLAIN. MID-LEVEL INHIBITION HAS SUPPRESSED ACTIVITY SO FAR...BUT
STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FORCING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE DIGGING
UPSTREAM TROUGH...AND PERHAPS RADIATIONAL COOLING ATOP THE DEEP
SURFACE BASED MOIST LAYER...MAY WEAKEN CAPPING BETWEEN NOW AND
02-03Z.

ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS AND SHEAR ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN
WEAK...STRENGTHENING OF MID-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS MAY YIELD SUFFICIENT
SHEAR FOR SUSTAINED UPDRAFT ROTATION...ENHANCING THE RISK FOR LARGE
HAIL IN STRONGEST STORMS.

..KERR.. 11/01/2010


ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...EWX...
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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Much cooler and WET after Tuesday

#5117 Postby srainhoutx » Mon Nov 01, 2010 7:25 pm

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
717 PM CDT MON NOV 1 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHERN SAN JACINTO COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN WALKER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 800 PM CDT

* AT 710 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL.
THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF PANORAMA VILLAGE TO 19 MILES EAST OF WILLIS. THE LINE
WAS BUILDING SLOWLY WEST AT 10 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT
LIMITED TO LAKE CONROE DAM...DOBBIN...MONTGOMERY AND COLDSPRING..
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srainhoutx
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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Much cooler and WET after Tuesday

#5118 Postby srainhoutx » Mon Nov 01, 2010 7:42 pm

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2032
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0733 PM CDT MON NOV 01 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 020033Z - 020230Z

THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...INCLUDING THE AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO
AREAS. A WW LIKELY WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

NEAR OR JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...A ZONE OF ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY PROVIDED AN EARLIER FOCUS
FOR A FAILED ATTEMPT AT DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. BUT IT APPEARS
THAT THIS ZONE MAY BECOME A FOCUS FOR INCREASING NEW STORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS EVENING...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS THE 03-06Z TIME
FRAME...AS MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION STRENGTHENS
DRAMATICALLY IN RESPONSE TO THE DIGGING UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE. ONCE
THIS OCCURS...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND SIZABLE CAPE WILL BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE
HAIL...PERHAPS LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...IN THE PRESENCE OF
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...AS WEST NORTHWESTERLY
500 MB FLOW STRENGTHENS IN EXCESS OF 40-50 KT.

..KERR.. 11/02/2010


ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...
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Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Ike/Harvey

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CajunMama
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#5119 Postby CajunMama » Tue Nov 02, 2010 8:35 am

3.5-4" of rain for my neighborhood area since yesterday. There's an area to the southwest of lafayette that has recieved 10"+.
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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Much cooler and WET after Tuesday

#5120 Postby vbhoutex » Tue Nov 02, 2010 8:39 am

:uarrow: Wow!! Only 0.83" here in W Houston where I live. Some areas near the coast have had up to 4". Looks like we might have more through Wednesday.
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