ATL : EX TOMAS - Discussion

[Sanibel]

I don't have a clue on this one. Let's just go with NHC.


Shortwave shows better organization and banding again. Should strengthen soon.

[wxman57]

Possible Tomas goes towards Belize area -as Ridge to north remains in control of what is left of storm. The system in Gulf appears won't be much of player here.

Not likely it would go that far west as a cold front will be sweeping into the northwest and western Caribbean on Thursday.

[crimi481]

"What if" - Tomas stays in Carib - and not lifted north?
Would it eventually go wnw again?

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[crimi481]

Think there are 2 centers?
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html

[dwsqos2]

Given that the 0Z gfs was very weak and showed a somewhat less conducive environment, and that Tomas looks more like a monsoon depression than a tropical storm, I think it is likely that Tomas never reaches hurricane strength again.

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Also, an ASCAT pass from 2Z shows no closed circulation.

[TheEuropean]

Winds are nearly gone, they can't find any westwinds at this time.

[jconsor]

I still expect Tomas to become a hurricane, but likely not until *after* passing a little north of Hispaniola. Given the lack of a well-defined center and reduced inflow due to a separate low in the SW Caribbean, it will take quite a while to develop a decent core.

[FireRat]

The latest 2 AM models November 3 show up pretty wacky. NGFDL even send it into North Carolina , although probably sheared for sure. Others send it back down into Caribbean and even the GFDL throws it towards PR. Nutty models!, see for yourselves:

[TheEuropean]

TOMAS downgraded:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
500 AM EDT WED NOV 03 2010

...TOMAS WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION BUT STILL EXPECTED TO
RESTRENGTHEN...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 75.5W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM SSW OF PORT-AU-PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

[GCANE]

I think a new LLC could reform in the next day or two.

Tomas has had the problem of not having the anti-cyclone over his LLC.

IMHO, the anti-cyclone has not been able to get over the LLC due to strong UL temp gradients.

This time of year, the UL troposphere cools rapidly; but if strong convection fires, latent heating creates localzed hot spots.

The anti-cyclone gets kicked around like a pinball.

I think what is needed is a very broad area of even temp distribution in the upper troposphere.

Looking at WV this may be what is needed.

A good portion of the Carib is firing sporadic convective cells and stratiform precip.

This should create a broad area of higher UL tropopause temps.

That in turn could kick up a new surface lower as an advection from Tomas's mid-level circulation.

However, this processs could take a couple days.

[GCANE]

Here is the latest temp profile from AMSU microwave soundings.

Tropopause is abnormally cooler.

In mid summer the background would be all aqua color.

[tolakram]

Tomas may be a TD now but at least it looks like a tropical system. IMO the LLC completely dissipated and a new one is forming. Now we can see clear spin at the mid levels.

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

They dont know where the low center is (If there is one)

THE HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT WINDS SURROUNDING
THE LOCATION OF THE MINIMUM PRESSURE...SO THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY IN THE CENTER POSITION AND INITIAL MOTION.

[cyclonic chronic]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-ir2.html

that spin at 14N 73.5W, is the mid level circ. im assuming? strange system. the first few vis. shots should be out soon, though its pretty clear by recon that the LLC is weak or non-existant.

GCANE, isnt a cooler tropopause better for strengthing?

[GCANE]

[GCANE]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-ir2.html

that spin at 14N 73.5W, is the mid level circ. im assuming? strange system. the first few vis. shots should be out soon, though its pretty clear by recon that the LLC is weak or non-existant.

GCANE, isnt a cooler tropopause better for strengthing?

Yes, very true.

So, we could see a quick flare up, especially given the high SST's.

If the flare-up is close to the LLC, things could change again quickly.

Anti-cyclone could then get closer and shear lessen then.

[GCANE]

Looks like the anti-cyclone is making some big shifts.