ATL : EX TOMAS - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Now the question becomes,will recon find a closed circulation this afternoon?

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
WILL INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON TO DETERMINE WHETHER
TOMAS STILL HAS ENOUGH CIRCULATION TO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL
CYCLONE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER...AND BASED ON THIS AND THE AIRCRAFT DATA
THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT.

[myst12]

Wife and I are heading to St Thomas tomorrow through Monday. Do you guys see Tomas causing any issues? Weather forecast looks like it has been for a while with no mention of heavy rain. Thanks!

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Fego]

Left NHC location at 11:00 a.m. To the right is what my eyes see is a possible new center.

[cycloneye]

Wife and I are heading to St Thomas tomorrow through Monday. Do you guys see Tomas causing any issues? Weather forecast looks like it has been for a while with no mention of heavy rain. Thanks!

You should not have big problems in terms of the weather during you stay in St Thomas.A few passing showers may move thru,but no widespread bad weather is expected,so enjoy your vacation.

[myst12]

Wife and I are heading to St Thomas tomorrow through Monday. Do you guys see Tomas causing any issues? Weather forecast looks like it has been for a while with no mention of heavy rain. Thanks!

You should not have big problems in terms of the weather during you stay in St Thomas.A few passing showers may move thru,but no widespread bad weather is expected,so enjoy your vacation.

Awesome, thank you very much!

[crimi481]

I like wording by NHC this morning( no explanation for Tomas weakening) - on line with my "X" factor post last night - regarding how Tomas and past several storms almost disappeared- just hours after NHC mentioned "all systems a go" for intensification over next 24 hrs". Must be frustrating, at least, for our good friends/Pro's at NHC ( I say this respectfully)
Also about there being 2 lows next to each other, battle each other and creating shear. ( one now near Panama, clearing way for sheer to ease over low center to its east.)

Good subject for later, analizing "why" the shear forecasts became so "un-forcastable"??

[Sanibel]

I think we might see a re-development burst from the current convection action. (Curvature flexing back into place).

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[crimi481]

The ridge line, north of Tomas, keeps extending west near Cuba.
Wondering if elongated System (Tomas) tracks more west or s.w.?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html

[Dean4Storms]

Would have to think that the elongated center is now split with the main LLC now taking place near 15N 74W approx. Can easily see LL flow rotating in toward that area from the west.

[GCANE]

[wxman57]

Could be an LLC forming near 15.1N/75.1W.

[GCANE]

[drezee]

Could be an LLC forming near 15.1N/75.1W.

Low level cloud flow is defintely hinting at it. It could spin up quickly from here.

[crimi481]

West Pacific type system. Dual low pressure area. They usually need lots time and water in front of them to consolidate energy, then become large/strong systems.

[tolakram]

Speeding up this loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

I think you can clearly see where the new LLC is, and it looks fairly healthy. Recon should confirm soon. Not a lot of time to ramp up, so hopefully it will stay weak and move rapidly north tomorrow.

[guyclaude08]

i found that on wunderground site DR jeff master says that tomas could become a tropical storm tonight and tomorrow cat 1 and i remember you guys were talking about tomas slowing down when doing the turn my question is can it get to cat 2 ??? seems that tomas will be ready to go to war in a few hours now...

[cycloneye]

Center reformimg more Northeast

From 2 PM EDT intermediate advisory.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND PRELIMINARY DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF TOMAS IS
RE-FORMING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION. AT
200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TOMAS
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.0 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...
11 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
TOMAS COULD APPROACH HAITI ON FRIDAY.

[HURAKAN]

Looking much better today (emphasis on "looking")