ATL : EX TOMAS - Discussion

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Gustywind
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1461 Postby Gustywind » Wed Nov 03, 2010 2:56 pm

guyclaude08 wrote:That was fast tomas is making a nice comeback.I think it could hit my country with a cat 1 oh God no I love the tropics but this year has been unfair to my country Haiti.

Stay optimistic Guyclaude08 :) in of this possible threat :cry: :oops: , we pray for you hoping for the best...
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1462 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 03, 2010 2:57 pm

Decoded observation,not a VDM.

1003 mbs extrapolated

Observation Time: Wednesday, 19:28Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 14.3N 75.7W
Location: 266 miles (427 km) to the SSE (164°) from Kingston, Jamaica.
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 330 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 320° at 13 knots (From the NW at ~ 14.9 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: 24°C
Flight Level Dew Point: Not available, probably because the dew point hygrometer was not working.
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Shower(s) (continuous or intermittent precipitation - from cumuliform clouds)
Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP): 1003 mb (extrapolated)
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#1463 Postby SouthDadeFish » Wed Nov 03, 2010 3:21 pm

I'm growing very concerned with Tomas. On satellite, he is miles ahead of what he looked like the past two days. However, it appears that the circulation is still in the mid levels, after seeing recon data. The surface center is still broad, which is good news for those in his path. I'm worried, because at this point Tomas reminds me a lot of what he looked like before he ramped up right before the islands. This is just my opinion, but I am very concerned for the strong possibility of RI over the next day or two before landfall. The track closer to Haiti/DR isn't very nice either. Again, this is not a forecast, just my opinion.
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#1464 Postby SouthDadeFish » Wed Nov 03, 2010 3:28 pm

Center position:

Image
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#1465 Postby SouthDadeFish » Wed Nov 03, 2010 3:30 pm

Watch this loop to see a quickly organizing tropical storm.... wow.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_640.asp?product=tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1466 Postby wxman57 » Wed Nov 03, 2010 3:34 pm

They found some kind of a center near 14.3N/75W (VDM).
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1467 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 03, 2010 3:34 pm

Decoded first VDM of this mission.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 20:28Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 301)
Storm Number & Year: 21L in 2010
Storm Name: Tomas (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 11
Observation Number: 12
A. Time of Center Fix: 3rd day of the month at 20:05:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 14°15'N 75°02'W (14.25N 75.0333W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 284 miles (457 km) to the SSE (156°) from Kingston, Jamaica.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 19kts (~ 21.9mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 39 nautical miles (45 statute miles) to the ENE (70°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 177° at 16kts (From the S at ~ 18.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 37 nautical miles (43 statute miles) to the ENE (66°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1003mb (29.62 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 333m (1,093ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 334m (1,096ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 10 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Wind Outbound: 36kts (~ 41.4mph) in the southeast quadrant at 20:16:20Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 36kts (~ 41.4mph) in the southeast quadrant at 20:16:20Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
LARGE AREA OF L/V SFC WIND
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#1468 Postby SouthDadeFish » Wed Nov 03, 2010 3:34 pm

Oops I got beat to the VDM. Sorry. Why didn't they include the higher flight level winds in the VDM?
Last edited by SouthDadeFish on Wed Nov 03, 2010 3:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1469 Postby GCANE » Wed Nov 03, 2010 3:35 pm

Looks like a BA Hot-Tower firing off at 15.5N 74W.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1470 Postby wxman57 » Wed Nov 03, 2010 3:37 pm

Recon winds indicate there may be another center farther north up around 14.8-14.9N.
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1471 Postby SouthDadeFish » Wed Nov 03, 2010 3:39 pm

wxman57 wrote:Recon winds indicate there may be another center farther north up around 14.8-14.9N.


So does satellite. The broad center will probably consolidate closer to that center.
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#1472 Postby Vortex » Wed Nov 03, 2010 3:39 pm

looks like tonight is the night(strengthening)...I really hope those in the Haiti are taking this extremely serious....I was hoping this trend would not come to pass...
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Re: ATL : TOMAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1473 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 03, 2010 3:42 pm

Tropical Storm again

WTNT31 KNHC 032037
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
500 PM EDT WED NOV 03 2010

...TOMAS RE-INTENSIFIES INTO A TROPICAL STORM...NEW WARNINGS AND
WATCHES ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 74.8W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
HAITI.

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND HOLGUIN.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM
BARAHONA WESTWARD.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...
LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...AS
WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

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#1474 Postby SouthDadeFish » Wed Nov 03, 2010 3:44 pm

New cone:

Image
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Re:

#1475 Postby GCANE » Wed Nov 03, 2010 3:45 pm

Vortex wrote:looks like tonight is the night(strengthening)...I really hope those in the Haiti are taking this extremely serious....I was hoping this trend would not come to pass...


That big hot-tower and anti-cyclone closing in should get him ramped up quickly.
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#1476 Postby Vortex » Wed Nov 03, 2010 3:45 pm

Im going with cat 2-3 and landfall in haiti..could be stronger...
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#1477 Postby SouthDadeFish » Wed Nov 03, 2010 3:49 pm

Time is Haiti's best friend now. Tomas might not have enough of it to really ramp up.
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#1478 Postby TreasureIslandFLGal » Wed Nov 03, 2010 3:56 pm

I noticed that they have downgraded the expected strength now of the storm when it hits Hispanola. They had it hitting as a CAT2, but it appears to now be progged to be merely a Tropical Storm now. -any bit helps the people of Haiti...a less severe storm or one who's center can go further east and keep them out of the NE quadrant.
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#1479 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Nov 03, 2010 3:57 pm

Image

Looking a lot better
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Re:

#1480 Postby SouthDadeFish » Wed Nov 03, 2010 3:58 pm

HURAKAN wrote:
Looking a lot better


Beautiful outflow becoming established. Not good. If a CDO develops soon, look out.
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