ATL : EX TOMAS - Discussion

[Gustywind]

[SouthDadeFish]

Recon finding 40 knot SFMR winds.

[cycloneye]

Flight Level Winds

41 knots
(~ 47.1 mph)

SMFR

40 knots
(~ 46.0 mph)

[Canerecon]

Recon is also making another pass over the area where a wind shift was detected.

[SouthDadeFish]

Wind shift is not matching up with the lowest pressure....

[Canerecon]

Wind shift is not matching up with the lowest pressure....

Hmm ... and the latest wind shift is to the SW of the previous one.

[Macrocane]

Hi Canerecon welcome to the board! Yeah, Tomas is still trying hard to get better organized, maybe Dmax will help him.

[Canerecon]

Hey Macrocane, thanks for the welcome! It does look like Tomas has been a fighter and NOAA recon has been finding lower pressures than the Air Force plane. I'm not too sure about its direction though, it has been erratic.

[cycloneye]

Hey Macrocane, thanks for the welcome! It does look like Tomas has been a fighter and NOAA recon has been finding lower pressures than the Air Force plane. I'm not too sure about its direction though, it has been erratic.

First welcome to storm2k and enjoy all the forums that we have. Someone said earlier that the pressures the NOAA plane data are lower than what the Air Force plane data shows.

[guyclaude08]

How's tomas tonight ??? And is it strengthening ?? Like I understand it tomas has 1 day left now to be more powerful.that thing is gonna blow up for sure

[Ntxw]

Convection is still bubbling on and off, but more consolidation I guess...Does look like it's moving closer to Hispaniola

[SouthDadeFish]

Almost looks like its building an eyewall on satellite... Recon data suggests otherwise.

[Battlebrick]

54 KTS SFMR UNFLAGGED..well i think. Usually the recon decoder site puts asterisks next to flagged readings, this one does not.

[TheDreamTraveler]

[CrazyC83]

I think that SFMR may be unrepresentative though given earlier data. I would only bump up to 45 kt for now.

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Warning issued for Haiti

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF HAITI.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING MAYAGUANA AND THE INAGUAS...AS WELL
AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI
BORDER EASTWARD TO BARAHONA
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND HOLGUIN

[sunnyday]

Have the Bahamas been mentioned before now about being in Tomas's path?

[Weatherfreak000]

Almost looks like its building an eyewall on satellite... Recon data suggests otherwise.

I disagree. Tomas looks to be strengthening at a gradual pace already. The consolidation was all we were really waiting for. The NHC is agreeing to with the impromptu hurricane warning.


Tomas may have ran out of time to become a major though....what a lucky break for the people of Haiti. I am happy for them

N FACT...ALL OF
THE RELIABLE MODELS THAT DO NOT MOVE TOMAS OVER A SIGNIFICANT
PORTION OF HAITI MAKE THE CYCLONE A HURRICANE WITHIN 36-48 HOURS.
THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX ALSO SHOWS A 62 PERCENT
CHANCE OF A 30-KT INCREASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...

[Ntxw]

Have the Bahamas been mentioned before now about being in Tomas's path?

The southern Bahamas are plenty close to Haiti to get effected. It's just that the Bahamas have been overshadowed due to the situation that is in Haiti, so people tend to forget. People there should be ready for anything.

[SouthDadeFish]

You disagree with what? All I'm saying is that there is a really strange eye-like feature on the last satellite frame. I'm well aware that this is not really an eye. Still needs to align the mid-level and surface centers.