ATL : EX TOMAS - Discussion

[Florida1118]

Have the Bahamas been mentioned before now about being in Tomas's path?

They were under a TS watch last Adv., so ya they were mentioned.

[Florida1118]

what a lucky break for the people of Haiti. I am happy for them

I no right...Thank goodness for SA to help weaken him. Still, Major or not, rain is still the primary threat. I personally would not be happy for them yet though.

[cycloneye]

Haiti Prepares for Tomas

My prayers go to them.

[warmer]

an eye is trying to pop...

[HURAKAN]

there can't be an eye without an eyewall

[guyclaude08]

We appreciate your thoughts but my question is will tomas arrive tomorrow or friday cuz it seems close and will it be upgrade again at 2am ??? And what about santiago in DR, what people could expect there, will santiago feel the winds ??? I have so many questions for you guys so sorry for that but we need to know how things is going on cuz it's has been raining here non stop in santiago while I'm writing this it's still raining

[cyclonic chronic]

i love S2K

[cyclonic chronic]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-wv.html

really getting his act together now. new LLC has consolidated and banding begining to take shape. haiti might wanna rethink their deforestation problem for the next few decades. this has the makings of a disaster. NHC nailed the track, moving north straight towards hispanolia, theyre lucky it weakend. yeah the NHC altered their track but its still the same basic set-up as yesterday

[Florida1118]

i love S2K

Uh me too? Looking good just needs to build a little more convection

[EyELeSs1]

looks like he's getting his act together... nice banding and outflow is exanding in most directions now

[bahamaswx]

Have the Bahamas been mentioned before now about being in Tomas's path?

The southern Bahamas are plenty close to Haiti to get effected. It's just that the Bahamas have been overshadowed due to the situation that is in Haiti, so people tend to forget. People there should be ready for anything.

The forecast track really only leaves concern for the extreme southern Bahama islands--Inagua and Mayaguana. The Turks & Caicos are independent of the Bahamas.

[EyELeSs1]

pressure could be near 998mb now

060000 1535N 07602W 8426 01481 9985 +187 +142 037008 011 004 001 03

[bob rulz]

Almost looks like its building an eyewall on satellite... Recon data suggests otherwise.

Tomas may have ran out of time to become a major though....what a lucky break for the people of Haiti. I am happy for them

Rainfall is always the deadliest threat in Haiti, I wouldn't be celebrating just yet...

[vegastar]

According to recon, the center is in the western edge of the deep convection, and still moving west of north. The pressure gradient is still flat near the center, but seems to be improving.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 040838
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
500 AM EDT THU NOV 04 2010

...NEW WARNINGS ISSUED...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 76.1W
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
JAMAICA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI
BORDER EASTWARD TO BARAHONA
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND HOLGUIN

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS AND PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD
BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

Haiti will get heavy rains as it passes,but the good news is that RI has not occured and time is shrinking for Tomas to do it as the shear will increase as it moves more northward in latitude.

[Gustywind]

From CrownWeather http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=325
Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued: Thursday, November 4, 2010 615 am ET/515 am CT

Tropical Storm Tomas:

Hurricane Warnings are in effect for Haiti, the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Jamaica.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the southern coast of the Dominican Republic from the Haiti border eastward to Barahona and also the Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba and Holguin.

Satellite imagery this morning showed that there has been little change in the storm’s organization overnight, however, data from reconnaissance aircraft show that the barometric pressure has fallen to 997 millibars with surface winds of around 50 mph. Despite the signs of some strengthening, Tomas continue to be affected by some shear which will likely prevent rapid intensification which is obviously very good news.

Tomas is currently tracking north-northwest at a forward speed of 7 mph. Tomas is forecast to track north to north-northwestward today around a ridge of high pressure located over the west-central Atlantic. Tomas is forecast to turn to the northeast tonight and remain on this type of track through this weekend. On this track, Tomas will pass through the Windward Passage, which is the area of water between eastern Cuba and western Haiti, tonight and then across the extreme southeastern Bahamas during Friday.

Even though the combination of very warm waters and somewhat low wind shear should lead to intensification, the tilt of the storm the higher you go and the fact that the circulation is broad in nature should prevent rapid intensification. The SHIPS rapid intensification index is showing a 48 percent chance for an increase of 25 knots in wind speed over the next 24 hours and a 25 percent chance for an increase of 30 knots in wind speed over the next 24 hours. I do think the environment will be favorable enough for intensification today through Friday and Tomas may be a hurricane when it tracks through the Windward Passage tonight and a Category 1 hurricane when it tracks across the extreme southeastern Bahamas on Friday.

A storm surge of 1 to 3 feet is expected along the south coast of Haiti and this surge will be accompanied by very large waves.

Tropical storm conditions will affect Jamaica, especially eastern Jamaica from this afternoon through tonight before conditions improve on Friday. Hurricane conditions will affect Haiti from late tonight into Friday morning. Hurricane conditions are expected across the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands from late Friday morning through Friday afternoon.

The most dangerous part of this storm for Haiti and the Dominican Republic will be the heavy rainfall and the associated flash flooding and mudslides. Total rainfall amounts of 10 to 15 inches are likely across Haiti and the Dominican Republic which will likely cause flash flooding and mudslides. In Jamaica, total rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches can be expected. For the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands, total rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches are expected during Friday.

I will be monitoring Tomas very closely and will keep you all updated.

[Phoenix78]

I'm not liking the slowdown and turn to the east on day 5 - the start of a loop??

Alan K.