ATL : EX TOMAS - Discussion

[KWT]

Hmmm its going to be really tight whether Haiti gets the really heavy convection or whether it stays just offshore, any NW wobble will make the world of difference on its current track...

[wxman57]

Tomas' center is clearly visible now. It always help to get that nasty convection out of he way! 16N/76.3W. Nearest convection is now 50 miles to the east.

[EyELeSs1]

LLC is clearly exposed and moving a bit South of West. Not sure if there are multiple vortices rotating around a broad area of lower pressure but either way this doesn't look good for Tomas in the short term.

[GCANE]

Looks like he is going naked again.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

I guess that is what happens when you try to run away from an anti-cyclone.

[Sanibel]

Paula - North track, blown-down by shear and unfavorable environment.

Richard - Turned North, hit unfavorable environment and poofed.

Tomas - Hit east Caribbean and faultered. Tracked North and hit unfavorable environment and shear.

[GCANE]

Looks like another inversion has setup in the boundary layer.

Convection is going to die off.

Tomas is having some serious issues.

[wxman57]

There was another small vortex down near 15N that was rotating SE a few hours ago. The north vortex DID seem to be Tomas' main center, though. But with it moving west and the rest of Tomas going north, I wouldn't forecast strengthening.

[HURAKAN]

exposed

[hurricaneCW]

So what happened to that favorable environment that was spoken about? Seems to me that once Tomas entered the Eastern Caribbean, he was doomed. Good news for Haiti though, they don't need anything else giving them trouble.

[tolakram]

LOOP: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

Rather than exposed it appears a vortex was spit out, which rapidly faded in the very next frame. Not sure what I'm looking at but Tomas is not very well structured, to say the least.

[HURAKAN]

Good news for Haiti though, they don't need anything else giving them trouble.

Rain has always been the trouble for Haiti, not the winds. SHIPS actually shows mostly favorable upper-level winds over the next 36 hours, it may be wrong.

[tolakram]

So what happened to that favorable environment that was spoken about? Seems to me that once Tomas entered the Eastern Caribbean, he was doomed. Good news for Haiti though, they don't need anything else giving them trouble.

While I'm sure Haiti will be better off without hurricane winds it's the heavy rains that always kill the most people down there. Unfortunately I don't think they will escape the rains.

[Ntxw]

Any kind of help for Haiti rain or wind would be good. People have been saying wind isn't the trouble but to me im not sure I've seen tents do well in 50mph+ winds nonetheless 70+ so that's a relief. Lets hope the trough will quickly lift out Tomas so his rains doesn't linger.

[vbhoutex]

Haiti has ordered the evacuation of all the tent cities according to the news at noon. Apparently they have 1000 shelters set up to take the million plus in. I hope they can actually deal with them as opposed to the evacuees just being in more danger in another place besides what they currently call home.
Wxman57 or any other met, with the convection being removed from the center is there a possibility Tomas is going subtropical or extratropical already or is this only due to the shear.

[margiek]

Wxman57 or any other met, with the convection being removed from the center is there a possibility Tomas is going subtropical or extratropical already or is this only due to the shear.

No and no. The core is still poorly-defined, and the upper-level anticyclone centered to the south is still providing moderate (and occasional bursts a little higher than 15 kt) WSWly shear. Dry air entrainment from the north and west continues to undercut convection near the center, but the part of the primary convective band that is still being fed with moisture from the EPAC is able to maintain convection, further SE and S of the center. As a result convection near the center is minimal and displaced to the east.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL STORM TOMAS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 26A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
200 PM EDT THU NOV 04 2010

...RAINBANDS OF TOMAS MOVING ACROSS JAMAICA AND SOUTHWESTERN
HAITI...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 76.2W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM WSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES

[FireRat]

This is probably among the trickiest systems I've ever seen, Tomas is a hard nut to crack for the forecasters, especially talking about intensity. Even the track may be needed to be taken day-by-day. Fortunately, he is not putting on a devastating trick, but rather a benign "weakening" trick. It is likely that Haiti will avert a disaster unless the storm somehow reforms south and strikes them between the 6th and 8th of November IMO.

[crimi481]

Tomas has had a minimum of 3 vortex's floating around in elongated are low pressure.
The low's have nbeen fighting within - eroding away eachothers quadrants of their circulation centers
Now it appears a new low trying to dominate - south of current one being plotted. I think...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ir2.html

[KWT]

Looks like convection is trying to get going over W.Haiti and down the SW spine of the country as daytime heating starts to reach its max...

This is the real danger time, the next 24-36hrs could be more then wet enough for bad flooding to occur in Haiti, at least they've had a long time to sort things out there...

[cycloneye]

Evacuating from Tents to Churches

The good news,no major hurricane,the bad news,copious rains that could cause a big disaster.My prayers go to all over there.