Caribbean - Central America Weather

[msbee]

abajan. that is absolutely true.
still they did receive a lot of rain in a short period of time
265 milemetres is a lot of rain any where.


http://www.thedailyherald.com/islands/1 ... lands.html

[Stephanie]

Good evening! I just want to mention that the strongest cold front of the season (so far) is going to reach Central America on late Thursday or Friday bringing cool northerly winds to the region and possibly the coldest temperatures since February or even since January, I will post some observations from this event.

It's hard to even imagine that cold fronts will swoop down so far in latitude. I'll be interested to see what your observations will be.

[cycloneye]

San Juam, Puerto Rico rises to wettest #2 year and the year is not over .

.CLIMATE...WITH THE ADDITIONAL 1.54 INCHES OF RAINFALL THAT FELL AT
THE LUIS MUNOZ MARIN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT THROUGH 2 PM AST THIS
AFTERNOON...A TOTAL OF 75.62 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS NOW ACCUMULATED AT
THE AIRPORT SINCE THE FIRST OF THE YEAR. THIS REPRESENTS THE SECOND
WETTEST YEAR AT THE AIRPORT...WITH ONLY 2005 ENDING WETTER WITH A
TOTAL OF 77.28 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE COURSE OF THE YEAR.
(RECORDS FOR THE LMM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT DATE BACK TO JANUARY 1
1956)

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
622 AM AST THU NOV 4 2010

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
INTERACT WITH TROPICAL STORM TOMAS TO INDUCE A SOUTHEAST ELY WIND
FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOOKS LIKE THE WIND WILL INCREASE AND VEER TO THE
SOUTHEAST...DUE TO THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE TROPICAL STORM TOMAS.
LATEST SURFACE AND SATELLITE ANALYSIS INDICATES ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY TO COMBINE WITH LOCAL
EFFECTS...TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL FAVOR THE
FORMATION OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

ON THE MEDIUM RANGE...WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON TROPICAL STORM TOMAS...
AS IT MOVES MAINLY NORTH NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
THE TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST AND MOST FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A WEST NORTHWEST TURN LATER THIS WEEK. HOWEVER...SOME EFFECTS
ARE STILL EXPECTED LOCALLY...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF AN OVERALL
INCREASE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND MODERATE TO LARGE
NORTHWEST SWELL AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC. AS A RESULT...A GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AND A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL STORM TOMAS REACHES THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT THROUGH ABOUT 04/15Z.
EXCEPT...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHRA...MAINLY IN VI AND SE
PR. AFT 04/15Z...EXPECT MORE PERSISTENT MVFR...OR EVEN IFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ IN SCATTERED SHRA AND ISOLATED
TSRA...MAINLY BETWEEN 04/17Z AND 04/22Z. CONDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE OVER SOUTHEAST THIRD OF PR OR USVI AFT 04/22Z.

&&

.MARINE...MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS AND SEAS UP
TO 7 FEET THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL GO UP
AT NOON TODAY...OTHERS THIS EVENING AS SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE
SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE AREA. MARINERS ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION
IN ALL BUT THE WESTERN PROTECTED WATERS OF PUERTO RICO WHERE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES DO NOT APPLY.

[Gustywind]

Weather is grey this morning in Guadeloupe. Meteo-France Guadeloupe reported 20 to 30 millimeters yesterday night at le Moule. Nice showers accompanied by tstorms are expected today. Looking behind my window, rain is falling nicely right now for 5 minutes in a sad sky.

[Gustywind]

[abajan]

abajan. that is absolutely true.
still they did receive a lot of rain in a short period of time
265 milemetres is a lot of rain any where.


http://www.thedailyherald.com/islands/1 ... lands.html

You’re right, msbee. The situation was far worse than I thought. To quote from the link you provided: “Prime Minister Schotte said the amount of precipitation within five to six hours was as much as the island normally saw in an entire year...”

[Gustywind]

Very strong showers are abatting here! Strong episode of rain sometimes. Looks like we're in for the day !

[Gustywind]

Thunder is rolling now with isolated lightnings...

[Gustywind]

Again another pretty solid episode of rain

[Gustywind]

Sad news for humanity and especially the carib family thus the Northern Leewards (Sint Barth) . Best prayers and positive thoughts for this UNIQUE and wonderfull women. You're always in our heart Douchy
Here is the translation.

Death of Saint Barth, Eugénie Blanchard, Dean of humanity
franceantilles.fr 04.11.2010

The Dean of humanity, Eugénie Blanchard, a 114-year-old nun died Bruyn de Saint-Barthélémy Hospital where she resided since 30 years. Born 16 February 1896, Eugénie Blanchard, become religious, had left his Island native then deprived of Saint-Barthélemy - overseas situated 250 km north of Guadeloupe - community, to carry out his Catholic vocation in Curaçao then a wealthy Dutch colony located off the coast of the Venezuela.
His return to his native island, it is had acquired the nickname of "The Douchy" (sweets, in Papiamentu, Creole Netherlands Antilles), name of cakes and sweets proposed Saint-Barth youth inviting them to share the Gospel story or a biblical parable.

[Gustywind]

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 100260.php

[caribsue]

Don't know what is causing it but we on the south coast of Barbados are experiencing some fairly strong gusts of winds right now so much so that one of the galvenized sheets on our little gazebo is flapping about and the patio chairs have been blown into a corner. We had some fairly heavy rain this morning around 10am and it is just starting again now.

[Gustywind]

Don't know what is causing it but we on the south coast of Barbados are experiencing some fairly strong gusts of winds right now so much so that one of the galvenized sheets on our little gazebo is flapping about and the patio chairs have been blown into a corner. We had some fairly heavy rain this morning around 10am and it is just starting again now.

Glad to see you my friend. Be safe and dry. We have heavy rain too in Guadeloupe, no gustywind but looks like rain is back again. Continue to keep us informed as possible, i will try too.
Gustywind

[Macrocane]

The SNET has issued the first special report about the northerly winds situation in El Salvador, here's teh translation (sorry if there are mistakes):

Special report No. 1

Description of the system: High pressure of 1026 mb is located over the United States extending a ridge over Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador producing a moderate to strong "Northerly winds" situation on the territory, occasionally very strong winds are expected and the temperature will decrease gradually.


Forecast for the remainder of this day (Thursday November 4 2010): incursion of "Northerly winds" on the territory, from weak to occasionally moderate speeds (between 12 to 22 km/h and occasional gusts between 28 and 40 km/h with an emphasis on high areas of the country. Cool temperatures are expected at night.


For Friday November 5 2010: The ridge is well established over Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador producing "Northerly winds" of moderate and occasionally strong intensity. The speed is expected to be between 15 and 25 km/h and occasional gusts of 30 to 40 km/h. Temperatures will drop at night.


For Saturday November 6 2010: the strong northerly winds persist over the territory with speeds of 30 km/h and occasionaly gusts of 50 km/h, gusts of greater magnitude cannot be ruled out. The minimum temperature will experience a significant decrease and will reach between 9°C and 11 °C in high areas and between 12°C and 15°C in the valleys.

[Macrocane]

Bad news from Costa Rica where the rains of the last few days have caused deaths and damages.

Landslide kills 20 in Costa Rica

An emergency situation live in Las Lajas, San Antonio de Escazú, San José, where occurred a gigantic landslide that swept through several houses today.

According to reports of authorities, 20 people were killed and at least 10 are missing.
The judicial investigation agency confirmed that there are eight women, five men and four minors among the dead. Momentono have confirmed the identity of victims.

The authorities fear that they are under the rubble of several houses shattered by the avalanche of stones and mud that fell from Pico Blanco Hill.

The National Commission of emergency (CNE) reported this morning that bad weather also caused serious problems in other areas of the country, especially in the Central Pacific and South where there are several isolated communities.

Reported houses and bridges destroyed in the cantons of Parrita, Garabito Aguirre, among others. In Parrita, the Red Cross reported that there are also missing persons, although the amount has not been determined.

Translated with Microsoft Translator

Original site (in Spanish): http://www.nacion.com/2010-11-04/Sucesos/UltimaHora/Sucesos2579006.aspx

Some pictures: http://www.nacion.com/Generales/MediaCenter/Home.aspx?album=1441

[cycloneye]

Bad news from Costa Rica where the rains of the last few days have caused deaths and damages.

Landslide kills 20 in Costa Rica

An emergency situation live in Las Lajas, San Antonio de Escazú, San José, where occurred a gigantic landslide that swept through several houses today.

According to reports of authorities, 20 people were killed and at least 10 are missing.
The judicial investigation agency confirmed that there are eight women, five men and four minors among the dead. Momentono have confirmed the identity of victims.

The authorities fear that they are under the rubble of several houses shattered by the avalanche of stones and mud that fell from Pico Blanco Hill.

The National Commission of emergency (CNE) reported this morning that bad weather also caused serious problems in other areas of the country, especially in the Central Pacific and South where there are several isolated communities.

Reported houses and bridges destroyed in the cantons of Parrita, Garabito Aguirre, among others. In Parrita, the Red Cross reported that there are also missing persons, although the amount has not been determined.

Translated with Microsoft Translator

Original site (in Spanish): http://www.nacion.com/2010-11-04/Sucesos/UltimaHora/Sucesos2579006.aspx

Some pictures: http://www.nacion.com/Generales/MediaCenter/Home.aspx?album=1441

Very sad news from that country.My prayers go to the families of the victims.

[msbee]

St. Maarten is currently experiencing very heavy ran and a lot of wind.

Did you send this North to us., Gusty?

[cycloneye]

There is big uncertainty about how Tomas may affect the NE Caribbean so stay tuned.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
416 PM AST THU NOV 4 2010

.SYNOPSIS...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES AND GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
A LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRINGS UNSETTLED WEATHER FROM THE SOUTHEAST
TOMORROW AND MOISTURE FEEDING INTO TROPICAL STORM THOMAS IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRAWN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...EXPECT THE LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCE ADVECTING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON TO BRING
INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS...AND EVENTUALLY THE VI AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. WHILE AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL THEN BE IN PLACE FOR DIURNALLY INDUCED CONVECTION
ACROSS PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW...WITH
THICK CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
DELAYED INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS BY THE ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER.


THEREAFTER...EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WILL
PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE EXPECTED WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. WITH SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN ITS TRACK...AND SIGNIFICANT
DIVERGENCE IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE FIELDS...HELD OFF ON ISSUING ANY
HYDROLOGIC PRODUCTS FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...CONTINUE TO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN OVERALL SHOWER
ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE AND THE WESTERN HALF
OF PUERTO RICO AS WE HEAD INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND SOME DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE BEGINS TO GET DRAWN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION AS IT IS HEAVILY
DEPENDENT ON SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES AFFECTING TOMAS AND HENCE THE
PROGNOSIS FOR RAINFALL COULD CHANGE RAPIDLY. AT THE PRESENT
TIME...OPTED TO KEEP MOST OF THE INHERITED FORECAST IN TACT AS
ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS TO WARRANT GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...QUICK PASSING SHRAS WILL MOVE ACROSS TKPK...TNCM...THE
VI AND TJPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY...
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE SE.
AFT 05/15Z...EXPECT SHRA AND TSRA DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL TO SPREAD LOCALLY MVFR...AND POSSIBLY EVEN BRIEF IFR
CONDS...ACROSS TJSJ...TJBQ AND TJMZ FROM 05/16Z-05/22Z. LLVL ESE
WIND FLOW OF 10-20 KTS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS...BECOMING MORE
SE TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

[msbee]

Bad news from Costa Rica where the rains of the last few days have caused deaths and damages.

Landslide kills 20 in Costa Rica

An emergency situation live in Las Lajas, San Antonio de Escazú, San José, where occurred a gigantic landslide that swept through several houses today.

According to reports of authorities, 20 people were killed and at least 10 are missing.
The judicial investigation agency confirmed that there are eight women, five men and four minors among the dead. Momentono have confirmed the identity of victims.

The authorities fear that they are under the rubble of several houses shattered by the avalanche of stones and mud that fell from Pico Blanco Hill.

The National Commission of emergency (CNE) reported this morning that bad weather also caused serious problems in other areas of the country, especially in the Central Pacific and South where there are several isolated communities.

Reported houses and bridges destroyed in the cantons of Parrita, Garabito Aguirre, among others. In Parrita, the Red Cross reported that there are also missing persons, although the amount has not been determined.

Translated with Microsoft Translator

Original site (in Spanish): http://www.nacion.com/2010-11-04/Sucesos/UltimaHora/Sucesos2579006.aspx

Some pictures: http://www.nacion.com/Generales/MediaCenter/Home.aspx?album=1441

Oh no, that is terrible!