ATL : EX TOMAS - Discussion

[cycloneye]

In this set,flight level winds are higher than SFMR.

045 041 011 00

[msbee]

report from Haiti on stormcarib:

*

Good afternoon every one,
Sky at Port-au-Prince is entirely cloudy and rain start to felt. Report from the south of Haiti indicated the same situation. A radio (Signal FM) corespondent from Les Cayes indicated that rain start to felt since yesterday night and continue at this time. Report from Jeremie also tell heavy rain are occurring at this time, a river is already in flood. I will try to update one again before 4h PM (haitian time). After that time I will be out of Internet connexion, but i will be able to continue to send update via my phone on twitter (http://twitter.com/jcpoulard); you can follow me to have update from the situation hours after hours.

To all the people be save.

Jean Came Poulard
Down Town of Port-au-Prince.

[bahamaswx]

You can clearly see the LLC on visible shooting back to the east, and is almost back under the heavy convection. Looks like it just completed a little cyclonic loop.

[Category 5]

If I didn't know any better, I'd look at the satellite and say this was subtropical. Almost looks like early Otto.

[Canerecon]

edit: Let's keep the recon reports in the recon thread. I was confused as to what thread I was reading... wxman57

[wxman57]

I think that Tomas will be accelerating northward and merging with the front and large extratropical storm over New England by late this weekend/early next week. No slow eastward drift beyond 60 hours. I think the NHC will be making a track adjustment shortly.

[SouthDadeFish]

The little vortex is definitely getting pulled back underneath the convection. Not sure if it means much. Still looks very sheared.

[SouthDadeFish]

Not sure why recon chose the center spot for the VDM that they did. They had a dropsonde with lower pressure farther SE.

[KWT]

If I didn't know any better, I'd look at the satellite and say this was subtropical. Almost looks like early Otto.

Yeah it does doesn't it, reminds me of a sorta developing subtropical storm though the convection is still farly close to the center...

Interesting evolution this system has taken on though!

[wxman57]

Nope, NHC kept the same eastward drift beyond 72 hours, along 29N. They're way out on a limb with that forecast, model consensus-wise. I just don't see it being trapped there. Of course, the new Euro moves it through the Bahamas and then has it doing a 180 deg turn and going back to where it is right now by next Saturday. I don't think so...

[HurricaneBelle]

I think that Tomas will be accelerating northward and merging with the front and large extratropical storm over New England by late this weekend/early next week. No slow eastward drift beyond 60 hours. I think the NHC will be making a track adjustment shortly.

They didn't, although they acknowledge they'll be wrong, per the 5PM discussion:

THE CONSENSUS TECHNIQUES...BY
DESIGN...SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE...WHICH IS NOT VERY LIKELY TO BE
CORRECT. IN A SOMEWHAT UNCOMFORTABLE COMPROMISE...THIS TRACK
FORECAST IS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT IS
SOMEWHAT EQUATORWARD OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

If they absolutely know this is going to be wrong, then why do it? The only thing I can think of is they don't want to run the risk of taking a bath on their forecast error stats; they're going with a sure error rather than risk a larger one when they should just pick whichever solution they think is more likely to happen and be either spectacularly wrong or spectacularly right rather than definitely but "more safely" be wrong.

[guyclaude08]

since this morning in Santiago Dominican Republic the wind has pick up there and we had light rain.Why NHC still think that tomas will be a Hurricane maybe a cat 1 ??? and tomas is scary

[Canerecon]

Aw man, I was reading this thread and didn't realize. I'll remove.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[KWT]

To be honest that really does look subtropical right now, recon confirms it isn't but the presentation alone sure does look that way.

Plenty of moisture moving into Haiti...

[HURAKAN]

sheared ≠ subtropical

[HURAKAN]

satellite images and Kingston's Skew-T diagram show that Tomás hasn't begin to interact with the trough

[drezee]

Pop goes the weazel or Tomas that is


220600 1636N 07456W 8418 01492 0016 +147 +036 196052 054 046 007 03
220630 1636N 07454W 8435 01479 0024 +142 +033 191053 058 051 012 00

Highest winds so far

[KWT]

Well that justifies 50kts then from the looks of things, wouldn't be surprised to see some slight strengthening occuring in the next 24-36hrs as NHC expect.

[Gustywind]

Haiti prepares for a new test
France-French West Indies Guadeloupe 04.11.2010
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 100230.php

The storm tropical Tomas pursues a road which would bring him this weekend on Haiti, where cholera epidemic extends...
Fatalist, Haiti is trying to prepare to welcome the storm tropical Tomas, crossing your fingers that the weather conditions do not here then lead to strengthening. In the State of extreme hardship which live hundreds of thousands of refugees, such as building would be catastrophic.
Civil protection officers were dispatched in camps to sensitize the evacuees living there since the earthquake of January 12, inviting them to evacuate.
President René Préval accompanies since Monday Director of emergency preparedness, Alta Jean-Baptiste in the regions of the South of the country to oversee the operations implemented by the civil protection. Resources were positioned in the island points which could be affected, while humanitarian organizations were back in place to deal with the passage of the storm.
The Government has asked the people living in the North and East of Haiti to take every precaution: Storm could accelerate the spread of the epidemic of cholera. Epidemic progresses at high speed: its balance sheet is now dead and 6 442 742 hospitalizations, i.e. an increase of 30% since Saturday.

Saint Lucia: FAA to the rescue
Meanwhile, Saint Lucia tries to heal his wounds. The official record is always 12 deaths. A thousand houses were severely damaged and agriculture is almost totally disaster. Since Monday, at the request of the Embassy France in Castries, the armed forces in the West Indies and civil security at work. West Indies (FAA) armed Forces Puma helicopter carried out many rotations between Martinique and St. Lucia.
Thirteen tons of water, food and materials have since forwarded to Fonds-Saint-Jacques, a neighbourhood on the heights of Soufriere Hills, where there are at least six dead and many missing persons.