ATL : TOMAS - Models

[Dean4Storms]

On the leaving behind or circling back down into the central Carib. Sea model runs. I would think the dry air and shear from the trough digging would keep whatever is left of Tomas by this point in check. There would have to be some dry air entrained from the NW and UL winds screaming out of the west or SW.

[plasticup]

2010-11-02-06z GLDF brings Thomas to 130 knots (almost Cat 5) as it crosses Haiti near Les Cayes.

[Gustywind]

[Ivanhater]

Conditions look really favorable, The GFDl is possible imo.

[plasticup]

Conditions look really favorable, The GFDl is possible imo.

Conditions are good, but I don't think he has enough time/space to blow up to 130 knots. I do think the other models are low-balling it though. Cat 3 seems very plausible.

[Ntxw]

Tbh the EC has done a decent job short term wise (many doubted including myself as so given he was a cat 1-2 then). A few days ago it advertised weakening storm and not a very strong system which has panned out as so. Today's EC still has a system but a very broad one at that moving through Hispaniola after brushing eastern Jamaica.

I understand RI is very possible however given what's happened with previous systems in the Carib (i.e. Richard, matthew etc they've taken their sweet time to get it together) it might not happen.

I say this with great caution given the circumstances of places in it's way...

[cycloneye]

00z Tropical Models

SHIP intensity continues very bullish towards high end cat 1.

Code: Select all

 
WHXX01 KWBC 030047
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0047 UTC WED NOV 3 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE TOMAS (AL212010) 20101103 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        101103  0000   101103  1200   101104  0000   101104  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.6N  74.8W   13.9N  76.1W   14.3N  77.0W   14.7N  77.2W
BAMD    13.6N  74.8W   14.3N  75.8W   14.9N  76.6W   15.7N  77.2W
BAMM    13.6N  74.8W   14.1N  75.9W   14.5N  76.7W   14.9N  77.3W
LBAR    13.6N  74.8W   14.2N  75.7W   14.8N  76.2W   15.5N  76.4W
SHIP        35KTS          38KTS          46KTS          56KTS
DSHP        35KTS          38KTS          46KTS          56KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        101105  0000   101106  0000   101107  0000   101108  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    15.6N  76.3W   18.9N  72.4W   22.4N  69.8W   22.0N  68.2W
BAMD    16.9N  77.4W   22.3N  75.1W   29.5N  70.0W   38.9N  62.6W
BAMM    15.7N  77.2W   20.1N  74.3W   24.1N  72.3W   24.3N  67.6W
LBAR    16.7N  76.1W   21.2N  73.9W   24.1N  67.8W   22.7N  62.2W
SHIP        69KTS          83KTS          86KTS          77KTS
DSHP        69KTS          82KTS          83KTS          75KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  13.6N LONCUR =  74.8W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =   8KT
LATM12 =  13.4N LONM12 =  72.7W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 =  14KT
LATM24 =  13.5N LONM24 =  70.3W
WNDCUR =   35KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   40KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD =  160NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =   90NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =  90NM
 


[Dean4Storms]

Now the next question seems to be once Tomas gets north of Haiti could it get left behind by the trough? If so, does a weaker Tomas get caught up in the lower to mid level flow and sent back toward the west as the 12z NGaps shows? Going to be interesting to see how this plays out.

[Ntxw]

Now the next question seems to be once Tomas gets north of Haiti could it get left behind by the trough? If so, does a weaker Tomas get caught up in the lower to mid level flow and sent back toward the west as the 12z NGaps shows? Going to be interesting to see how this plays out.

I don't think currently it's a real concern. After the trough passes by conditions there won't be friendly (usually isn't this time of year). Dry sheared air in place so if it does get left behind there won't be much left after it takes a beating by the trough itself. No models really develop anything post Hispaniola. It's been the case since Paula that anything heading north of the Antilles gets bullied.

[FireRat]

The 2 AM NGFDL shows Tomas shooting straight north towards North Carolina.

Of course, it would probably be sheared to bits by then if that were to realize. I also noted a few other models sending it back southwest after beating Haiti, and the GFDL sends it SE towards Puerto Rico after passing Hispaniola. I saw all this on wunderground.com. Nuts huh?

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 031245
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1245 UTC WED NOV 3 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE TOMAS (AL212010) 20101103 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        101103  1200   101104  0000   101104  1200   101105  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.9N  75.7W   14.5N  76.9W   15.0N  77.6W   15.8N  77.2W
BAMD    13.9N  75.7W   14.7N  76.3W   15.7N  76.7W   17.2N  76.7W
BAMM    13.9N  75.7W   14.6N  76.5W   15.2N  77.1W   16.2N  76.9W
LBAR    13.9N  75.7W   14.7N  76.1W   15.6N  76.3W   17.3N  76.2W
SHIP        30KTS          32KTS          38KTS          49KTS
DSHP        30KTS          32KTS          38KTS          49KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        101105  1200   101106  1200   101107  1200   101108  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.8N  75.3W   19.3N  72.7W   19.2N  72.5W   18.1N  71.8W
BAMD    19.5N  75.8W   25.9N  72.2W   33.0N  61.9W   40.4N  52.9W
BAMM    17.8N  75.6W   21.6N  73.4W   22.8N  72.0W   23.1N  67.6W
LBAR    19.3N  75.4W   26.7N  70.9W   28.9N  61.1W   28.8N  55.3W
SHIP        59KTS          71KTS          73KTS          60KTS
DSHP        59KTS          66KTS          67KTS          55KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  13.9N LONCUR =  75.7W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR =   5KT
LATM12 =  13.5N LONM12 =  74.7W DIRM12 = 265DEG SPDM12 =   6KT
LATM24 =  13.4N LONM24 =  72.7W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   75NM WNDM12 =   35KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD =  180NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[Canerecon]

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 040055
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0055 UTC THU NOV 4 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE TOMAS (AL212010) 20101104 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        101104  0000   101104  1200   101105  0000   101105  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    15.2N  75.1W   16.1N  75.9W   17.4N  76.2W   18.9N  75.2W
BAMD    15.2N  75.1W   16.6N  75.4W   18.8N  75.3W   21.9N  74.2W
BAMM    15.2N  75.1W   16.3N  75.7W   17.9N  75.6W   20.1N  74.7W
LBAR    15.2N  75.1W   16.5N  75.3W   18.5N  75.2W   21.0N  74.1W
SHIP        40KTS          51KTS          62KTS          71KTS
DSHP        40KTS          51KTS          62KTS          71KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        101106  0000   101107  0000   101108  0000   101109  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    20.5N  73.7W   22.3N  71.7W   21.0N  72.0W   20.1N  72.6W
BAMD    26.1N  72.7W   38.8N  71.1W   47.3N  71.5W   47.6N  73.3W
BAMM    23.0N  73.6W   29.4N  70.4W   36.2N  65.8W   42.7N  63.6W
LBAR    25.7N  72.7W   30.6N  63.9W   30.6N  62.5W   30.9N  58.2W
SHIP        78KTS          79KTS          60KTS          33KTS
DSHP        78KTS          79KTS          60KTS          33KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  15.2N LONCUR =  75.1W DIRCUR = 325DEG SPDCUR =   5KT
LATM12 =  14.4N LONM12 =  74.6W DIRM12 = 324DEG SPDM12 =   5KT
LATM24 =  13.7N LONM24 =  73.9W
WNDCUR =   40KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   30KT
CENPRS = 1003MB OUTPRS = 1006MB OUTRAD =  180NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =   60NM RD34SE =   60NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN

SHIPS expecting a moderate Cat 1 at the end of the forecast period.

[dwsqos2]

I looked on raleighwx's site, and the Euro deepens Tomas to 983 mb by 12Z tomorrow. It's probably unrealistic, and the Euro, at least anecdotally, seems to be overly aggressive in baroclinicly enhanced situations. But, the Euro's intensity progs have been pretty good in the deep tropics.

[cycloneye]

Speaking of the EURO,after the trough lifts,it leaves behind Tomas.

12z ECMWF at 120 hours



12z ECMWF at 144 hours

[Ivanhater]

Nam would be horrific for Haiti. It leaves Tomas on and around Haiti for 4 days.

[HurricaneBelle]

I looked on raleighwx's site, and the Euro deepens Tomas to 983 mb by 12Z tomorrow. It's probably unrealistic, and the Euro, at least anecdotally, seems to be overly aggressive in baroclinicly enhanced situations. But, the Euro's intensity progs have been pretty good in the deep tropics.

Score one for the Euro with Tomas now at 987.

[GCANE]

18Z Ensembles