ATL : EX TOMAS - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[cyclonic chronic]

Step back and look at the big picture now (on satellite). The cold front has reached Jamaica and the western periphery of Tomas. Outflow is becoming severely restricted. General convection is decreasing quickly. I don't think it'll last as a TC for more than another 24-36 hours.

so your saying the extra tropical transition will take place sooner than expected? that front is really truckin along. i think i remember u saying yestrday that u could see this merging with the front and making it up the atlantic seaboard. any more thoughts of that?

[GCANE]

Core is already cooling and dropping - a sign of an ET transition.

[GCANE]

[Ntxw]

Cold front and trough is eating him away from the western side. Could be the beginning of demise...He's shrinking and merging northward with the front from the satellite view.

[HURAKAN]

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 74.0W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM NW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES

[wxman57]

Cold front is just west of Tomas now. Upper trof axis is moving in fast. No way Tomas is going to strengthen, it's being stretched NE-SW now. Won't last another 48 hours as a TC, maybe not another 24 hours.

[bahamaswx]

Compare Tomas 7hrs ago with Tomas now. A very quick demise for him indeed.

[cycloneye]

Flooding reported in parts of Haiti

The good news is,no casualties have been reported so far today.Hopefully,that continues.

[CrazyC83]

Looks like the mountains and the shear came in to weaken Tomas.

[cycloneye]

Breaking News=Two dead in floodings

The news is now comming more fast and sad news to report about two deaths caused by floodings.

[Canerecon]

Tomas looks like he is leaving some of his tail convection north of Panama. I also hear that the models are picking up on something down there, could it be the precursor to it?

[wxman57]

No evidence of hurricane force winds in the SW or NE quadrants. Tomas may be a TS now. Weakening fast. Also, note the wind direction NE of the center - SSE. That indicates inflow ahead of the cold front rather than winds blowing toward Tomas' center. Tomas won't last long in these conditions.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[wxman57]

Still no sign of hurricane force wind from recon. Maybe a 55-60 kt storm now.

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 73.8W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM E OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM SW OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES

[wxman57]

NHC forecasting Tomas to strengthen all night tonight and remain a hurricane through 48 hrs?? The data I'm looking at don't indicate that Tomas is getting better organized. Recon couldn't even find hurricane force winds. The cold front has reached Tomas now. I just cannot imagine Tomas strengthening tonight.

[bahamaswx]

Looks like he's gonna pass right over Inagua, but when's the last time a storm passed through the windward passage without landfalling on either cuba or haiti?

[Sanibel]

Satellite makes it look like the worst rain band went over Dominican Republic to the east.

[wxman57]

Looks like he's gonna pass right over Inagua, but when's the last time a storm passed through the windward passage without landfalling on either cuba or haiti?

Looks like a TS in 1905 may have just missed Haiti.
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif