ATL : EX TOMAS - Discussion

[Macrocane]

By the way, very strong convection is over northern Haiti at this moment, the threat is still not over.

[Ntxw]

looks like tomas death and extratropical transition have been exaggerated.

he looks pretty darn good tonite i.e back to vertically stacked

reminds me of wilma in the sense of entering the right front quadrant of the jet....i.e high shear but positioning and speed and looks to be intensifying

It's not exaggerated. He's become a part of the cold front while racing east northeast. Notice the band of clouds all the way north. A true tropical system that is strengthening is usually a single entity. He's not much different than a cutoff low at the end of a cold front sweeping through the states producing lots of rain and wind (severe storms). The only thing is he's enhanced by the motion of the trough which could create high winds. Add a 20-30mph gusts from the front itself to what he already is and that's what you get.

[ozonepete]

Exactly. Tomas is attached to that front now. It will not get "unattached." But still could be a very impressive extra-tropical storm.

[SouthDadeFish]

You don't get convection as strong as Tomas' without being truly tropical. He definitely has not transitioned yet.

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 060848
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
500 AM EDT SAT NOV 06 2010

...TOMAS WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...CENTER PASSING OVER THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 71.3W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NNW OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR HAITI HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WARNING
FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS WITH
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* HAITI
* THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER
EASTWARD TO PUERTO PLATA

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
WILL LIKELY BE LOWERED LATER THIS MORNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.3 WEST. TOMAS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. THE CENTER OF TOMAS WILL GRADUALLY BE MOVING AWAY FROM
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS THIS MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI...THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND PUERTO RICO. AN ADDITIONAL
2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI...WHICH COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING THIS MORNING IN
PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE
WINDS IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. STORM SURGE FLOODING SHOULD
DIMINISH LATER TODAY. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN

[JTE50]

We had heavy rain here all night long in Port-Au_Prince. I'm a bit concerned about the flooding situation now. The sun will be up in a few hours so I'll get a better read on the situation.

[Gustywind]

We had heavy rain here all night long in Port-Au_Prince. I'm a bit concerned about the flooding situation now. The sun will be up in a few hours so I'll get a better read on the situation.

Glad to hear you ! Be safe and dry my friend Thanks to keep us informed as possible we appreciate!

[Gustywind]

Looks like PR is experiencing nice feeder band from Tomas. Be safe and dry Cycloneye !

[Gustywind]

[KWT]

Still got a good amount of convection with it though the front is on top of it now so I can't imagine it'll be too long into the future before it goes ET.

Still got an impressive feeder band and deep convection still...

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

pretty impressive microwave image

[Macrocane]

Still pretty impressive but conditions look better for Hispaniola, Bahamas, Puerto Rico and Lesser Antilles are still experiencing rain though.

[KWT]

Yeah that microwave imagery still shows this is a seperate system, still got the western half of the eyewall in tact as well which is more then I was expecting actually!

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

visible

[wxman57]

Recon found no more than 50 kt surface winds in Tomas.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

moving away from land