What is the future of this season?

[dwsqos2]

My call was no major 'canes post Oct. 1, contrary to standard Nina climo.

[boca]

Now is pretty much over.

[jinftl]

What factors did you consider when making that call...what did you see that went against 'standard nina climo' going on in the basin?

What's interesting is that every storm that developed after October 1 did become a hurricane, though. 5 hurricanes after october 1 is impressive. That's way above the average (long-term average for the entire season is 6.2 hurricanes....we have seen 12 this season so far).

My call was no major 'canes post Oct. 1, contrary to standard Nina climo.

[ConvergenceZone]

I mentioned before that I think for quantity of storms, 2010 was very impressive....Even though it's doubtful we will have another storm this late in the season. If we do, it's the 'u' storm, which is pretty crazy....

Now, from a US memorable standpoint, 2010 is not memorable at all.....We'll remember more seasons where we had 1/4 the amount of storms, but more affected the USA mainland.....I've talked to many people who aren't hurricane buffs, but who have said, "I thought this year was going to be busy"? "Where are all of the hurricanes"?...You can blame the media on that one. The NHC really needs to stop predicting how many storms will affect the USA and how many majors will affect the USA. They have absolutely no clue. It's like throwing a dart in the dark, and makes peope say things like, "where are all of the hurricanes?"....

With al that said, the USA still got extremely, extremely, extremely lucky this year.......Don't expect us to get this lucky next year....To be up to the 'U' storm and not have one one those be a major that affected the USA is pretty mindblowing....

[jinftl]

Although parts of the Gulf did endure a multi-billion dollar disaster this spring and summer....the oil spill. It can't be said that those folks got through 2010 without any scars, it just wasn't from a tropical system. Man is more than able to replicate such devestation is the lesson of 2010 apparently.

Overall basin activity and landfalling storms are not necessarily hand in hand - from a scientific standpoint....the stats don't lie - 2010 turned out every much as active...if not more...than predicted. No way it can be said that the basin didn't live up to the potential in terms of what we saw....it's just we saw most of it from a distance. Most of the public would probably be surprised to learn that this season tied for the 3rd most active season in terms of # of named storms and the 2nd most active season in terms of # of hurricanes.

I mentioned before that I think for quantity of storms, 2010 was very impressive....Even though it's doubtful we will have another storm this late in the season. If we do, it's the 'u' storm, which is pretty crazy....

Now, from a US memorable standpoint, 2010 is not memorable at all.....We'll remember more seasons where we had 1/4 the amount of storms, but more affected the USA mainland.....I've talked to many people who aren't hurricane buffs, but who have said, "I thought this year was going to be busy"? "Where are all of the hurricanes"?...You can blame the media on that one. The NHC really needs to stop predicting how many storms will affect the USA and how many majors will affect the USA. They have absolutely no clue. It's like throwing a dart in the dark, and makes peope say things like, "where are all of the hurricanes?"....

With al that said, the USA still got extremely, extremely, extremely lucky this year.......Don't expect us to get this lucky next year....To be up to the 'U' storm and not have one one those be a major that affected the USA is pretty mindblowing....

[FireRat]

And it's not over 'till its over. The season officially ends after Thanksgiving. The odds for a storm to strike the U.S. are fairly low in late November but we've seen it happen in seasons much quieter than this one. Heck, even 1925, one of the calmest seasons on record, saw a hurricane hit Central Florida on November 30. Also November 1985's Kate hit around turkey date. You never know but we can get surprises at month's end, especially in a hyperactive year like this.
And I wonder how come the hurricane center doesn't have the "U", but skips to the V. There should be names like "Ulysses", "Ursula", and "Uche",...heh heh how about "Uncle", just kidding

[KWT]

My call was no major 'canes post Oct. 1, contrary to standard Nina climo.

That was a good call, its rather unusual not to get a major, but esp given how explosive the last 45 days actually have been for hurricanes....

Also, if I'm going to be picky a call of 3/2/0 for October and beyond is not what I'd call an excellent call, your WAY short and I wouldn't be shocked if we may get one more hybrid type development in the N.Atlantic...

[abajan]

...I wonder how come the hurricane center doesn't have the "U", but skips to the V. There should be names like "Ulysses", "Ursula", and "Uche",...heh heh how about "Uncle", just kidding

Other letters not used are “Q”, “X”, “Y” and “Z” because there aren’t many names that start with those letters. A detailed explanation on how names are chosen can be found here, I think.

[jinftl]

I feel that if someone goes out on a limb and labels their own predictions an 'excellent call', it is fair game to nit pick a bit and bring up the point that 3/2/0 as a forecast and 5/5/0 as the actual is actually not that close. Kudos on the # of majors..the rest was not even close. sorry!

My call was no major 'canes post Oct. 1, contrary to standard Nina climo.

That was a good call, its rather unusual not to get a major, but esp given how explosive the last 45 days actually have been for hurricanes....

Also, if I'm going to be picky a call of 3/2/0 for October and beyond is not what I'd call an excellent call, your WAY short and I wouldn't be shocked if we may get one more hybrid type development in the N.Atlantic...

[Weatherfreak000]

I mentioned before that I think for quantity of storms, 2010 was very impressive....Even though it's doubtful we will have another storm this late in the season. If we do, it's the 'u' storm, which is pretty crazy....

Now, from a US memorable standpoint, 2010 is not memorable at all.....We'll remember more seasons where we had 1/4 the amount of storms, but more affected the USA mainland.....I've talked to many people who aren't hurricane buffs, but who have said, "I thought this year was going to be busy"? "Where are all of the hurricanes"?...You can blame the media on that one. The NHC really needs to stop predicting how many storms will affect the USA and how many majors will affect the USA. They have absolutely no clue. It's like throwing a dart in the dark, and makes people say things like, "where are all of the hurricanes?"....

With all that said, the USA still got extremely, extremely, extremely lucky this year.......Don't expect us to get this lucky next year....To be up to the 'V' storm and not have one one those be a major that affected the USA is pretty mind-blowing....

Again, you're completely disregarding U.S. people's interests outside of landfall, I mean okay CZ we GET IT. The season is about over, no U.S. landfalls are probably going to happen......we get it.

I like some type of subtropical development. I say we at least see the V storm. Wow...the V storm....such an incredible season.

Can we PLEASE get over this? I myself am ready to start talking about the things that DID happen this season.

[KWT]

Yeah without a doubt this has been a very active season, the numbers are bordering on exceptional (indeed I think I probably would use that phrase for the numbers...) and the ACE whilst not *that high* compared to the numbers of storms is still in the hyperactive range and more or less exactly in the 160-200 bracket that most mod/strong warm phase Atlantic seasons obtain.

ps, we've more or less been as active as 2005 was in terms of numbers from the 20th August-5th November period....

[jinftl]

After the 2009 season I think the overall expectations that we would once again return to a very active season...in spite of the undeniable factors that clearly suggested it would be very active....were skeptical by many at best. If by June 10 we hadn't had a major, the 'season cancel' brigade was already coming alive. This has been an incredible season...a season with so many storms for us on this board to discuss and track. That devastation on the scale of the 2004 and 2005 and 2008 seasons didn't take place really should not diminish what we experienced. Rather, it should be viewed as a blessing.

We can count on a few fingers the number of seasons in our lifetimes that have been as active....just as we say that there won't be many 2005 seasons in the coming decades, there won't be so many seasons with the level of activing as in 2010 again too.

Storms being too close to land is probably the primary reason we didn't see at least 2 more major hurricanes this season. This was no 'year of shear'. Every storm...all 5...that formed after 10/1 all became hurricanes. This suggests that the environment was exceedingly favorable this year for any system that did form to intensify quite a bit.

[Sanibel]

That could be it.


2010 was the season where unfavorable weather features kept the worst from happening.

[ConvergenceZone]

Again, your completely disregarding U.S. people's interests outside of landfall, I mean okay CZ we GET IT. The season is about over, no U.S. landfalls are probably going to happen......we get it.

I like some type of subtropical development. I say we at least see the V storm. Wow...the V storm....such an incredible season.
Can we PLEASE get over this? I myself am ready to start talking about the things that DID happen this season.

So I can't tell people that I'm extremely blown away at how lucky we got this year without any major landfalls? Something like that DOES merit repeating...If you read carefully what I said, I salso that it WAS a very active year...I'm always careful about that, but you always find a way to pick it apart and give me a hard time.......If my intent was to talk about landfalls outside of the USA, I would have said so...My post was based upon a couple of individuals at work that asked me, "what happened to all of the hurricanes we suppose to have had this year"...My opinion was based upon public perception.

You are the one that just doesn't get it... I guarantee you that if they call for a slow to normal year next year, BUT there is someone on here giving giving an opinion of it being a very active year over and over again, that you won't be on them, like you are on me.....

[wxman57]

For the record, the NHC (NOAA) do not predict landfalls with their seasonal forecasts, they only predict the NS/H/MH and a range of +/- 1 standard deviation. So there was no prediction that a certain number of major hurricanes would strike the U.S.

Dr. Klotzbach at Colorado State does compute landfall probabilities, however.

[HurrMark]

To consider how lucky the US was this season is an underestmate. Unless I missed something, never before in recorded history did we have this much activity with so little impact on the States. The closest comparison I can come up with is 1990...but even that year only had 14 storms. If you were to tell anyone on July 23, when TS Bonnie, with its 40 mph winds, would be the strongest storm to make landfall this year, you would probably have few, if any, believers. I am not diminishing the devastation that took place in other parts of the basin, but considering all the activity we had, we truly were blessed.

I want to give props to Frank2, who I think had the best handle of what was going on and what was to come.

I have noticed throughout the season that despite the hyperactivity we have seen over the past 15 years, relatively speaking (that is, excluding 2004-2005), the United States has had few major storms making landfall. I wonder if there is a link between general steering patterns and multi-decadal activity. I know that the NAO and other short term scale features have an impact, but the fact that most major storms over this time either went south of the US or recurved makes me wonder about that.

[MGC]

The USA has lucked out this season. To think that in a 19 named storms season only a weak TS would strike the US is a very remote possibility IMO. We are counting our blessings here on the gulf coast that a hurricane did not strike our area and possibly only make the oil spill a greater disaster than it already is. I'd like to see one more named system, one way out in the Atlantic to make it an even 20 NS....how remarkable to have 2004, 2005 and now 2010. Looking forward to the day when the Atlantic Circulation phases back to the cold mode......MGC

[wxman57]

To consider how lucky the US was this season is an underestimate. Unless I missed something, never before in recorded history did we have this much activity with so little impact on the States. The closest comparison I can come up with is 1990...but even that year only had 14 storms. If you were to tell anyone on July 23, when TS Bonnie, with its 40 mph winds, would be the strongest storm to make landfall this year, you would probably have few, if any, believers. I am not diminishing the devastation that took place in other parts of the basin, but considering all the activity we had, we truly were blessed.

I want to give props to Frank2, who I think had the best handle of what was going on and what was to come.

I have noticed throughout the season that despite the hyperactivity we have seen over the past 15 years, relatively speaking (that is, excluding 2004-2005), the United States has had few major storms making landfall. I wonder if there is a link between general steering patterns and multi-decadal activity. I know that the NAO and other short term scale features have an impact, but the fact that most major storms over this time either went south of the US or recurved makes me wonder about that.

Note that Hurricane Hermine caused strong TS winds with gusts over hurricane force in south Texas, even though it didn't officially make landfall in the U.S. It was more of a "border crossing" into the U.S. from Mexico, but it caused quite significant damage to the Lower Rio Grande Valley.

[Migle]

Note that Hurricane Hermine caused strong TS winds with gusts over hurricane force in south Texas, even though it didn't officially make landfall in the U.S. It was more of a "border crossing" into the U.S. from Mexico, but it caused quite significant damage to the Lower Rio Grande Valley.

Hurricane Hermine? I thought she was only a Tropical Storm?

[ConvergenceZone]

The USA has lucked out this season. To think that in a 19 named storms season only a weak TS would strike the US is a very remote possibility IMO. We are counting our blessings here on the gulf coast that a hurricane did not strike our area and possibly only make the oil spill a greater disaster than it already is. I'd like to see one more named system, one way out in the Atlantic to make it an even 20 NS....how remarkable to have 2004, 2005 and now 2010. Looking forward to the day when the Atlantic Circulation phases back to the cold mode......MGC

I agree MGC. Outside of the horrible 2005, it seems like the worst years we have are years when there is below normal activity. For some reason those seasons always tend to spit out a major that crashes land that keeps that year in memory forever....