Upcoming week - November 8-14

[Andrew92]

Evaluating last week

After such a rough October, I’m screaming it out loud: FINALLY I had a very good week! The Tomas forecast was split into two camps, the track and intensity, and both were very well executed for the most part. Along with that, I predicted no other developments, and indeed that was the case, so that area gets an A.

Let’s start by evaluating the track of Tomas. I predicted a slow, westward track until Wednesday night, followed by a turn northward on Thursday towards Haiti. That is exactly what happened in the first three days of this past week. I did also call for a landfall in Haiti, and fortunately for the people stricken by the earthquake and a cholera breakout, that itself was avoided. However, the storm passed close enough that it could probably still count as being a strike. After that, I predicted an out-to-sea track to the north-northeast and northeast. Apart from passing through the southern Bahamas, that was also executed well. Overall, there were only some minor discrepancies in terms of the track. My grade for this portion of Tomas is an A-.

The intensity forecast was looking problematic on the surface, as I gave myself a 45% confidence for that portion. I called for an initial slowing to the early weakening trend, which did happen. However, I also predicted the storm would hold intensity of 50-60 mph maximum sustained winds by Wednesday, and it dropped to a tropical depression instead. That said, I predicted it would re-intensify to a hurricane by Thursday night. That actually happened a little after midnight, but timing being off only a few hours is not a bad thing at all, especially after this past month of roughness. I also was accurate on the intensity for when it hit Haiti, as I called for a high-end C1 hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of 85-90 mph, and it hit 85 as it passed to the west. However, the lack of landfall affected the last part of the intensity forecast. I do hold that a landfall would probably have shredded it bad enough to be a minimal tropical storm, but it didn’t do that. Instead, by staying offshore, it was able to hold its own as a fluctuating hurricane until it became extratropical on Sunday. I did predict dissipation on Sunday, though, and becoming extratropical may not be the same thing, but the last advisory was still written by the NHC. Overall, the real issues were the early weakening and the late part of the forecast. The crucial part was getting the Haiti part right, and that was executed probably as well as I could have. I give myself a B for the intensity portion of the Tomas forecast.

It does indeed all come back to Tomas this past week, and very good track forecast and a decent enough intensity forecast finally, FINALLY gave me a week I can pat myself on the back for. Couple with no other developments anywhere in the Atlantic, which was accurately predicted, I give myself an A- for the week. I was also among those who prayed for the people in Haiti, and am very thankful to God that, so far, the damage to Haiti from Hurricane Tomas has been much less than feared, and pray that that continues to be the case as time goes on.

Let’s keep this good string I’ve got going! On to this week…

Current situation and models

With Tomas leaving the picture, all appears to be quieting down in the tropics. There has been a low to the east of where Tomas’s remnants are that has been talked about for a slow development. The GFS model seems to still think it could happen, but the NHC has backed off. If it were to develop, the GFS does not intensify it much, and appears to make it subtropical if anything, while heading north and out to sea.

Otherwise, nothing looks imminent when looking at models this upcoming week.

Recent history

Since 1995, the following storms have developed this upcoming week, only one storm has developed during this upcoming week: Lenny in 1999. However, two storms that were previously active were still intact: Paloma in 2008 and Ida in 2009. All of these three occurred in the Caribbean, and all became hurricanes. Ida was the only one not to reach C3 intensity, but occurred in an El Nino year, and may have done so in a year like 2010.

The last storm to occur during this upcoming week (did not necessarily have to develop during it) in an area other than the Caribbean was Hurricane Lois in 1966.

So what does this all tell us?

It’s pretty unlikely that the low that was being talked about east of what’s left of Tomas is going to develop. The Caribbean is the area to look at this upcoming week, and no model foresees anything coming out of there this upcoming week.

Back to looking ahead

With Tomas out of the picture, the only area worth looking at much is the low to the east of Tomas’s remnants. Even that is fizzling, and is in a hostile area to develop for this upcoming week. With the Caribbean as the hot spot for anything to try to get off the ground, and nothing there at this time, this week brings forth a very simple prediction: I predict no tropical cyclone development this upcoming week. Confidence is 90%.

-Andrew92

[Weatherfreak000]

Just a note: There is NEVER anything simple about a 7 day tropical forecast. As you and I know these things can pop up rather quickly. A lesson you learned in October right



Just something i'd be keeping in mind were I you is all, hope I can help better your forecasts.

[Andrew92]

That's true, but there's nothing that models are showing throughout the next week, besides the very weak low east of what's left of Tomas (which is fading to begin with). Good point though.

-Andrew92

[Andrew92]

I got a little busy today and tonight, so sorry I'm running a little late on this, but at least I'm coming around to do this, right? Right! Let's evaluate last week.

Last week is a pretty easy week to evaluate, given that there were no active storms coming in, and I predicted no developments during the week. OK, Invests 93L and 94L did threaten to develop, but 93L completely fizzled out, while 94L is still hanging around…but hasn’t developed yet. Suffice it to say, since nothing developed, and I accurately predicted as such, my grade is an A for last week.

The new week coming up in just a sec.

-Andrew92