)hurricaneCW:
If we can't get a TD to ramp up in the gulf, then I don't know what to tell you. What a sad 1st half of the season. Thank god for Alex or else all hope would have been lost.
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A lot of forecasters are really banking on a ramp up starting August 20th. The Atlantic would literally have to turn on like a light switch in order to meet their expectations. It's already August 12th, we're very close to the heart of the season and there is nothing on the horizon. I wonder what excuse the forecasters will have when it's August 20-25th and everything is as still as the night.
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I think we're looking at a major bust, the Gulf disturbance is very sheared and may not even become a storm. The only thing to look forward to is the African wave, but we've already seen models develop waves that never became anything. I'm pretty sure forecasters are biting their fingernails and hoping to see something soon.
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Well I knew eventually all those who said give it time would cave in. There are some huge factors that are causing the inactivity that stems way beyond the Atlantic basin. The global activity is at a record low and no signs of change anywhere. We could be talking about the biggest forecast bust in history. 1 Fish is all I see in the next 2 weeks, that's all.
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KWT:
What I see is nothing that screams a hyper period is coming up, will probably roll along close to climo for the rest of the season, so maybe 12-13NS. Pretty much we are stuck in a rut that shows NO sign of changing and if its not produced the goods so far, its probably not going to do much good down the line either.
So my call for the rest of the season now is....
10-5-3
which would lead to 13-6-3 overall...we will see what happens but I see a rather massive bust coming for all the agencies...ACE probably will come in still decently above average though due to a couple of long tracking hurricanes.
Note, even forecasting 10NS might be a little on the agressive side but we will see!
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boca:
I don't know what to make of this season,but I can tell you I won't put any stock into the hurricane season predictions anymore.Maybe it will pick up next week like some posters were saying.In three weeks if it doesn't pick up it will be passed the peak of Sept 10th.Like I said in another post when I see it I'll believe it.
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StormClouds63:
1977 had category 5 Anita in the south-central GOM w/landfall in northern Mexico. In Louisiana, we had a very weak cat 1 storm, Babe. At this point, it's a stretch to even compare 2010 with 1977.
From 2005 to 1977 ... how the expectations for the 2010 season have tumbled.
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I do give credit to that private weather firm based in Houston ... they went totally against the trend back in June and predicted only 8 total named storms. Obviously, they picked up on some negative atmospheric condition that none of the other agencies predicted.
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ConvergenceZone:
You know how any storms you would need to get a month the rest of the way to come up with that number?? Not only would September need to be super hyperactive, but so would October and November.....
I know Joe does this for a living, but as a listener of him, I can still be a critic and request him to show me all the evidence....... His numbers are off the charts considering we only have 4 named storms right now, I just can't see 18 to 21 storms for the year......
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I'm starting to believe that there isn't going to be a "switch" that turns on that causes the tropics to become hyperactive.....I'm thinking there will just be the occasional storm from now until the end of the season....
I'm not too sure when the MJO becomes unfavorable again but activity might drop off once that happens...
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I believe that Joe Bastardi is going to be eating a large plate of crow with his outlandish 18 to 21 storm prediction he still believes is going to happen....
