ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

[tolakram]

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INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 94, 2010, DB, O, 2010111218, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL942010
AL, 94, 2010111218, , BEST, 0, 110N, 761W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

[AdamFirst]

This one came out of left field.

[Florida1118]

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA OFF THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA AND PANAMA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

Looks fine for development. So now we have 2 more to greek, as V seems likely.

[tolakram]

This one came out of left field.

Not really, or did I miss the sarcasm?

The reliable models have been predicting development down here for nearly a week now, in particular the GFS.

[Vortex]

Here we go.....

[cycloneye]

[GCANE]

Been building really nicely on WV this morning.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

[MGC]

Convection has really increased since yesterday....we'll have to see if this trend continues......MGC

[GCANE]

ASCAT this morning.

[dwsqos2]

So, we have a totally boring disturbance getting smacked around by some southeasterlies.

In response to someone from the other thread:

When I say shear, I mean in the future; look at gfs progs. Actually, I also mean in the present.

And, I'm sorry, but it isn't exactly encouraging that the Euro has nothing but a weak low; really the gfs isn't much stronger.

[Ntxw]

I think it's possible this one might get a name! Though water heat content won't likely support a major or a big storm...

[Macrocane]

So, we have a totally boring disturbance getting smacked around by some southeasterlies.

In response to someone from the other thread:

When I say shear, I mean in the future; look at gfs progs. Actually, I also mean in the present.

And, I'm sorry, but it isn't exactly encouraging that the Euro has nothing but a weak low; really the gfs isn't much stronger.

I don't want to sound offensive but, why are you always so skeptical about the development of tropical cyclones? You were skeptical with Richard, Tomas and Paula to name a few.

By the way, I beleive it has a good chance to develop into a tropical storm, conditions seems to be conducive for that though a hurricane is less likely.

[Ntxw]

So, we have a totally boring disturbance getting smacked around by some southeasterlies.

In response to someone from the other thread:

When I say shear, I mean in the future; look at gfs progs. Actually, I also mean in the present.

And, I'm sorry, but it isn't exactly encouraging that the Euro has nothing but a weak low; really the gfs isn't much stronger.

I don't want to sound offensive but, why are you always so skeptical about the development of tropical cyclones? You were skeptical with Richard, Tomas and Paula to name a few.

The poster likes taking a conservative approach, 'I'll believe it when I see it'. Just as there are a few who believes every invest becomes a major. Off topic. I do think the best spot for this to finally go is CA.

[Macrocane]

Yeah, Central America seems to be the final destination of 94L, that's one of the reasons against a stronger system too close to land and not much time over water.

[Evil Jeremy]

I knew something like this would happen. I have a Western Caribbean cruise booked for next Saturday lol. Any idea on where this one should be going?

[Macrocane]

According to some models it will head towards Central America, other models show a Cuba landfall, I guess it depends on the strength of the system.

[MGC]

9 times out of 10 I am against development of a TC this early. Odds do favor against development this time of the year. On average we only see a TC one out of two seasons in Nov. Odds to seem to be increasing for 94L though. There is a large amount of dry air to the north of the disturbance, but I've seen cyclones form in similar situations......MGC

[GCANE]

[Weatherfreak000]

The poster likes taking a conservative approach, 'I'll believe it when I see it'. Just as there are a few who believes every invest becomes a major. Off topic. I do think the best spot for this to finally go is CA.

There is a very clearcut difference between conservative and immoderate downcasting. Just my frank opinion.



Anywho, I am completely shocked by this activity I feel like we must be the WPAC or something. 94L looks to be in a good place to potentially score the coveted V name but IMO even if it didnt develop we would still get the V storm eventually. I am not so certain we will go greek though...

[GCANE]

Getting a lot of popup afternoon thunderstorms over Columbia due to solar heating of the landmass.

A great indication of the instability of the air there.

That air should feed into 94L and keep convection going.

In fact, I just ran a HYSPLIT trajectory analysis for a parcel initialized at 10N 75W.

Results show very strong ascent into the LLC.