ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

[Weatherfreak000]

Vorticity very unimpressive, but that is to be expected considering how fast this area popped up in the first place. Still, gonna need to see that occur later today. The NHC giving it the go ahead code orange is IMO telling they believe it to be occurring.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST FRI NOV 12 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
SYSTEM DRIFTS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[dixiebreeze]

Recon on tap for Invest 94L

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EST FRI 12 NOVEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 13/1100Z TO 14/1100Z NOVEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-164

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: PROBABLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
NEAR 12.5N 79.0W AT 15/1800Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY....NEGATIVE.

NOTE: WINTER STORM REQUIREMENTS ARE DOUBLE NEGATIVE.
JWP

[Weatherfreak000]

It appears it is organizing somewhat nicely tonight....we'll have to see how that develops.

I'm starting to like this becoming V

[caribepr]

There is a Coast Guard warning about dangerous surf from this system... http://www.piersystem.com/go/doc/586/950007/

[cycloneye]

There is a Coast Guard warning about dangerous surf from this system... http://www.piersystem.com/go/doc/586/950007/

The big surf is from a strong low pressure that is located north of Puerto Rico (More on the surf at the Caribbean -Central America thread) This invest is located in the SW Caribbean.

[cycloneye]

Up to 40%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST SAT NOV 13 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
DRIFTS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT
...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[GCANE]

Core is warm but not well organized.

Anti-cyclone to the SE.

Given the persistent convection; I suspect this will improve today.

[caribepr]

There is a Coast Guard warning about dangerous surf from this system... http://www.piersystem.com/go/doc/586/950007/

The big surf is from a strong low pressure that is located north of Puerto Rico (More on the surf at the Caribbean -Central America thread) This invest is located in the SW Caribbean.

Oops! Thanks for the correction! It all looked like a strung together mess to me, need more sleep...

[Florida1118]

Looking good



And from Dr.Masters:

"An area of disturbed weather (Invest 94L) in the southern Caribbean off the coast of Colombia has changed little this morning, but has the potential to develop into a tropical depression on Monday or Tuesday. Satellite images show that 94L has a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms, but the activity is showing signs of organization, with several curved bands trying to form, and a bit of upper-level outflow to the north and west. Water vapor satellite images show a large amount of dry air lies to the north over the northern Caribbean, and this dry air may be slowing development. SSTs are warm, 29°C, and wind shear as analyzed by the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group is a moderate 10 - 15 knots. An ASCAT pass from last night showed 94L had a nearly complete surface circulation, but there is no sign of a closed circulation on satellite imagery this morning."

"Forecast for 94L
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will remain in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, through Monday morning, then rise to the high range, 20 - 25 knots, Tuesday through Thursday next week. The modest shear, warm SSTs, and relatively moist atmosphere should allow for some slow organization of 94L through Monday. The models predict that the steering currents in the southern Caribbean will keep 94L moving generally west-northwestward at about 5 mph for the next five days, which would bring the storm ashore over Nicaragua or northeast Honduras as early as Tuesday night. Both the GFS and NOGAPS models show some modest development of 94L, and NHC is giving the system a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 94L on Monday afternoon. At this time, it appears that 94L will stay confined to the Caribbean, and will not by drawn northwards across Cuba towards Florida and the Bahamas."

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST SAT NOV 13 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO SHOW
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
DRIFTS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT
...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Recurve]

Very interesting. We've had Nov. threats before and TS systems come this way, but I don't think ever so late. The ASCAT depiction of a complete circulation got my attention but then as Dr. Masters said, no indication of a closed low ATT.
Like to hear about progged fronts for next week to see what may be in store for the little bugger.

[dwsqos2]

It's still messy and rather elongated; though based on surface observations from Colombia, there is a bit more low-level support today. The anemic depictions on the good globals still suggest to me that probably not much will come of this. Even the aggressive Canadian doesn't do much with this. I remain immoderately and immodestly pessimistic.

[KWT]

I don't think much will come ioff this but then again I wouldn't be shocked to see A 30-40kts system develop in the end...

[Florida1118]

I'm confident V will come out of this. Its got a Surface Circulation, nice Convection though disorganized, and decent enough conditions for the time being. Bonnie formed didnt she?

[HURAKAN]

Loop

[HURAKAN]

72 hours



TCFP

[Weatherfreak000]

Support increases with 94L. I think 50% is good right now.