ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

[Ntxw]

Looks kind of messy to me. The theme with the previous storms is that systems take their sweet time to organize and this doesn't look to be an exception. I wonder if that will prohibit the coveted V name in time officially.

[HURAKAN]

It's a disturbance and you're looking at IR during D-MIN. Not surprised it looks messy. But if you see the visible loop I posted before, this system's circulation has become better organized today, most likely in the mid-levels. Convection will come back tomorrow morning during D-MAX.



vorticity has increased.

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: It's a disturbance and you're looking at IR during D-MIN. Not surprised it looks messy. But if you see the visible loop I posted before, this system's circulation has become better organized today, most likely in the mid-levels. Convection will come back tomorrow morning during D-MAX.

Well I saw that, it was earlier. The current visible doesn't look too impressive either. I'm sure underneath it is better compared to yesterday, but from a visible standpoint currently I'm not that impressed yet. The 'eyeball' test you could say

[HURAKAN]

This system is limited in its area of development.

[cycloneye]

No increase in organization this afternoon

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST SAT NOV 13 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THERE HAS BEEN NO INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT DRIFTS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...AND THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT ...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN

If D-MAX doesn't improve the system,I think the chances for development will dwindell.

[Ntxw]

Where is the circulation?

[wxman57]

It's just a broad, weak area of low pressure. There isn't any well-defined low-level circulation center. Any development is several days away.

[WeatherGuesser]

1AM, down to 30%

[Migle]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 AM EST SUN NOV 14 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN
SEA IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING LIMITED AND DISORGANIZED SHOWER
ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT DRIFTS WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT ...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
NNNN

[wxman57]

Could be a 40-50% shot at becoming a TD or weak TS before it moves ashore into Nicaragua on Wednesday or Thursday. That's about it. Definitely not developing today, and probably not Monday.

[Blown Away]

Could be a 40-50% shot at becoming a TD or weak TS before it moves ashore into Nicaragua on Wednesday or Thursday. That's about it. Definitely not developing today, and probably not Monday.

What pattern is causing many of these SW/NW Caribbean storms towards CA instead of being drawn north?

[cycloneye]

Tentative mission for tommorow afternoon. Means NHC is still interested in this system.

Code: Select all

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EST SUN 14 NOVEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 15/1100Z TO 16/1100Z NOVEMBER 2010
         TCPOD NUMBER.....10-166

I.   ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
     1. SUSPECT AREA -- SW CARIBBEAN
        FLIGHT ONE  -- TEAL 70
        A. 15/1800Z
        B. AFXXX 01JJA INVEST
        C. 15/1315Z
        D. 12.5N AND 79.0W
        E. 15/1700-2300Z
        F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

     2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 24 HRLY FIXES AT 16/1800Z
        IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.


[jinftl]

Keep in mind that we have an invest here....it's not even close to being classified a tropical depression yet, so by definition, i would not expect it to be 'organized' or have a 'well-defined center'.


Dr. Jeff Master's update on 94L this morning:

"An area of disturbed weather (Invest 94L) in the southern Caribbean between Colombia and Nicaragua has seen a slow increase in thunderstorm activity and organization this morning, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression on Monday or Tuesday.

Satellite images show that 94L has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms, and the activity is showing signs of organization, with a large curved band to the west, and a bit of upper-level outflow to the north and west. Water vapor satellite images show a large amount of dry air lies to the north over the northern Caribbean, and this dry air may be slowing development. SSTs are warm, 29°C, and wind shear as analyzed by the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group is a moderate 10 - 15 knots. There is no sign of a closed circulation on satellite imagery this morning.

Forecast for 94L
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will remain in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, for the next five days. The modest shear, warm SSTs, and relatively moist atmosphere should allow for some slow organization of 94L until landfall. The models predict that the steering currents in the southern Caribbean will keep 94L moving generally west-northwestward at about 5 mph for the next five days, which would bring the storm ashore over Nicaragua or northeast Honduras as early as Tuesday night.

Both the GFS and NOGAPS models show some modest development of 94L, and NHC is giving the system a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 94L on Monday afternoon. At this time, it appears that 94L will stay confined to the Caribbean, and will not by drawn northwards across Cuba towards Florida and the Bahamas.

I'll have an update Monday."
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1695

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[wxman57]

Could be a 40-50% shot at becoming a TD or weak TS before it moves ashore into Nicaragua on Wednesday or Thursday. That's about it. Definitely not developing today, and probably not Monday.

What pattern is causing many of these SW/NW Caribbean storms towards CA instead of being drawn north?

Strong high pressure across the south-central U.S. and Gulf of Mexico. It's been there all summer. Trof has been positioned along and off the East U.S. Coast, turning storms out to sea there. Last spring, we'd thought that the ridge and trof axes would set up a bit farther west, opening up the southeast U.S. to significant landfalls. Fortunately, for them, the pattern was slightly different, sparing the southeast U.S. But we always thought that any system making it past the trof axis would be forced west into Central America or Mexico. That's why we indicated a higher landfall risk in Mexico and a lower risk to the NW Gulf coast. So it was a slight difference in the overall pattern that saved the southeast U.S. and East U.S. Coast this year. That's something we cannot forecast 3-6 months in advance, even though we had the right idea that 2010 would be extremely active.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST SUN NOV 14 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN NOV 14 2010

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1009 MB LOW IS LOCATED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA CENTERED NEAR
11N78W THAT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF UNORGANIZED WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION COVERING THE AREA FROM 09N-16N
BETWEEN 73W-82W. SATELLITE IMAGERY EXHIBITS A FAIRLY BROKEN
MODERATE INTENSITY CONVECTIVE BAND THAT EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW NEAR 11N80W TO 14N79W THEN EASTWARD TO
14N74W. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LOCATE ITSELF BENEATH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA ANCHORED ON AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED
OVER NORTHERN NICARAGUA NEAR 13N85W. THIS IS PROVIDING AN UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENT AND LOWERED SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE ONGOING
CONVECTION...AND THEREFORE SLOW AND GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES W-NW.

[HURAKAN]

vorticity has significantly increased in the last 24 hours

[Weatherfreak000]

^^
Convection appears to be increasing as well. Something to watch that's for sure.

[HURAKAN]

Loop - http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... mtccosvis2

certainly appears to be becoming better organized