ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

[Weatherfreak000]

This image shows definitely how narrow the regions for development have become.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

LLC looking better organized

[wxman57]

I see a tighter center forming near 11.4N/79.9W. May be an MLC, but it's tightening up. Looks destined for Nicaragua/Central America.

[HURAKAN]

Nice pic

[jinftl]

The parallels between 94L in 2010 and Tropical Storm #21 from the year 1933, which ranks as the 2nd most active atlantic season on record, are pretty amazing. If 94L gets named, the 2010 season will be only one storm away from reaching the 1933 storm total.

Some info on Tropical Storm #21 in the year 1933....the dates, location, and potential intensity are almost identical to what we could see in 2010 with 94L!!!

After another calm period, the final tropical storm of the season was first observed on November 15 in the southwestern Caribbean Sea. It moved slowly westward, never strengthening beyond a minimal tropical storm in its short lifetime. On November 16, it struck the southeastern coast of Nicaragua, and it dissipated soon after on November 17.
http://www.stormpulse.com/tropical-stor ... y-one-1933




Storm Coordinates for Tropical Storm 21 back in 1933:

Date: Time: Lat: Lon: Wind(mph): Pressure: Storm Type:
11/15 12 GMT 11.9 79.8 40 0 Tropical Storm
11/15 18 GMT 11.9 80.6 40 0 Tropical Storm
11/16 00 GMT 12.0 81.3 40 0 Tropical Storm
11/16 06 GMT 12.0 81.8 40 0 Tropical Storm
11/16 12 GMT 12.1 82.4 40 0 Tropical Storm
11/16 18 GMT 12.1 83.2 40 0 Tropical Storm
11/17 00 GMT 12.2 84.3 40 0 Tropical Storm
11/17 06 GMT 12.3 85.2 35 0 Tropical Depression

[wxman57]

It sure appears to be west of 80W on satellite. Maybe 11.4N/80.4W? Probably a MLC, but it appears to be moving westward at an increasing forward speed.

[Florida1118]

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME LESS FAVORABLE...AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

Well then...

[Florida1118]

Not looking good at all tonight. I'm still confident on this becoming V, but may take a little bit.

[WeatherGuesser]

20%

000
ABNT20 KNHC 150533
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 AM EST MON NOV 15 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE
AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER MUCH OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE TO THE PRESENCE
OF DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


Time for the doomers and gloomers to put away their Ouija boards?

[GCANE]

I am wondering if the LLC may get relocated to the NE in the next day or two.

Heavy convection is firing to the east of the anti-cyclone which is currently at 13N 76W.

Current LLC is at 12N 78.2W.

This could indicate a mid-level PV anamoly may be forming under the anti-cyclone.

Usually, there is a strong updraft upstream of a PV anamoly.

A warm-core generally develops under a PV anamoly as well.

In fact, AMSU is showing a mid-level warm core 350km away from the LLC.

[wxman57]

It's not looking like this invest will make it to TD/TS strength before it moves inland on Wednesday. Weak area of low pressure was about it for this system. Models always have trouble in this region in April/May and November as the ITCZ slips southward through the area.

[HURAKAN]

15/1145 UTC 12.9N 76.9W T1.0/1.0 94L

up from TOO WEAK

[GCANE]

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0915 AM EST MON 15 NOVEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 16/1100Z TO 17/1100Z NOVEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-167

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 16/2100Z
B. AFXXX 01JJA INVEST
C. 16/1600Z
D. 14.0N AND 79.0W
E. 16/2000 TO 16/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 24-HRLY FIXES AT
17/1800Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARKS: TODAY'S MISSION FOR 15/1800Z CANCELED
BY NHC AT 15/1055Z.

[latitude_20]

Looking like a nothingburger. Surface convergence is almost nonexistent.

[Sanibel]

Looks can be deceiving and this might actually be consolidating slightly better in marginal conditions.

[wxman57]

I don't see much consolidating going on presently. Convection is weak and tops are warming. Pressures in the region appear to be going up, not down. Neither is a sign of increasing organization. Development chances look to be fairly low now.

[Migle]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST MON NOV 15 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED AND REMAINS
DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE AND DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...OF THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT DRIFTS
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
NNNN


They have gone back to the "IF ANY" statement. Looks like V shouldn't come from here, if it ever even comes at all.

[wxman57]

Convection is all gone this evening. Development chances continue to dwindle. Looking like the 2010 season is finally over.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Yeah it looks like the showers have died on down. The 2010 hurricane season has been a rough and wild one.