Caribbean - Central America Weather

[abajan]

Just seen this on BBC News -Surfing with 50ft waves this week in Ireland - gale force winds 6-8 think it could be from remnants of Tomas??? the last model tracks looked like it would take Tomas to Ireland (UK)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-11728584

The big surf is not from ex Tomas,but from a strong extratropical low that is located near Bermuda.

Cycloneye, it seems to be neither ex Tomas nor the system causing swells in our region but a totally separate entity located much closer to the British Isles. If you hover your mouse over the video you will see a link to another clip labeled “Met Office warns of gales and...” that features a BBC forecaster pointing out the location of the LOW a couple days ago. Additionally, the following links show how the system has affected the area subsequent to the said forecast:

• Impaled woman dies during storms
• Weather knocks out power supplies
• High winds and flooding hit roads
• Wales battered by gales overnight

Apparently, the North Atlantic has gone wild in general!

[cycloneye]

Just seen this on BBC News -Surfing with 50ft waves this week in Ireland - gale force winds 6-8 think it could be from remnants of Tomas??? the last model tracks looked like it would take Tomas to Ireland (UK)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-11728584

The big surf is not from ex Tomas,but from a strong extratropical low that is located near Bermuda.

Cycloneye, it seems to be neither ex Tomas nor the system causing swells in our region but a totally separate entity located much closer to the British Isles. If you hover your mouse over the video you will see a link to another clip labeled “Met Office warns of gales and...” that features a BBC forecaster pointing out the location of the LOW a couple days ago. Additionally, the following links show how the system has affected the area subsequent to the said forecast:

• Impaled woman dies during storms
• Weather knocks out power supplies
• High winds and flooding hit roads
• Wales battered by gales overnight

Apparently, the North Atlantic has gone wild in general!

Yes,I see it. A combination of all of them and you can imagine how the surf would be.

[cycloneye]

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
540 PM AST SAT NOV 13 2010

...LARGE NORTHERLY SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

PRZ001-002-005-008-010-012-VIZ001-140800-
/O.CON.TJSJ.SU.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-101115T1200Z/
/O.CON.TJSJ.CF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-101114T2000Z/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHWEST-
MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-CULEBRA-ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-
540 PM AST SAT NOV 13 2010

...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM AST MONDAY...

LARGE...LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELLS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC...WHICH INVADED THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS...ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS...AND PEAK LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
RECENT DATA FROM THE BUOY 41053...LOCATED ABOUT ONE MILE NORTH OF
SAN JUAN CONTINUES INDICATING 9 TO 10 FOOT SWELLS AT 15 TO 17
SECONDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. DURING THE PEAK OF THE EVENT...THE
SWELL HEIGHT COULD REACH 11 TO 12 FEET AT 15 TO 16 SECONDS. THESE
SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...AND
VERY LARGE BREAKING WAVES OF 15 TO 20 FEET...OR HIGHER...ALONG THE
NORTHERN EXPOSED COASTLINES...SHOALS AND REEFS OF PUERTO RICO...
CULEBRA...AND THE NORTHERN U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS. ALL LOCAL RESIDENTS
AND VISITORS ARE REMINDED TO USE EXTRA CAUTION IF VENTURING OUT
INTO THE WATER...AND KEEP SMALL CHILDREN AND PETS AWAY FROM THE
SURF ZONE. WAVE RUN-UP ALONG THE LOCAL BEACHES MAY REACH
ELEVATIONS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE SEA LEVEL.

WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED IMMEDIATELY AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.

THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION WILL
BE DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

THE TIMES OF THE HIGH TIDE FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS ARE:

SAN JUAN HARBOR: 1.1 FEET AT 3:01 AM AST SUNDAY MORNING
1.5 FEET AT 3:27 PM AST SUNDAY AFTERNOON

ENSENADA HONDA CULEBRA: 0.7 FEET AT 2:27 AM AST SUNDAY MORNING
0.9 FEET AT 2:53 PM AST SUNDAY AFTERNOON

MAGENS BAY ST THOMAS: 0.6 FEET AT 4:39 AM AST SUNDAY MORNING
1.3 FEET AT 3:19 PM AST SUNDAY AFTERNOON

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR COASTAL
FLOODING...CAUSING INUNDATION OF COASTAL ROADS...LOW LYING AREAS...
AND BEACH EROSION. RESIDENTS AND LOCAL OFFICIALS SHOULD BE PREPARED
TO TAKE PROTECTIVE ACTIONS IN CASE COASTAL FLOODING OCCURS OR
WARNINGS ARE ISSUED. THIS SITUATION WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED. KEEP
TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. WHILE THERE IS
STILL TIME...COASTAL RESIDENTS SHOULD MAKE IMPORTANT PRELIMINARY
PLANS TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE AND PROPERTY.

THESE LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL PRODUCE VERY LARGE BREAKING WAVES
AND DANGEROUS CURRENTS WITHIN THE SURF ZONE...CALLED RIP CURRENTS.
THESE NARROW OUTWARD FLOWING CURRENTS CAN CARRY PEOPLE AND ANIMALS
AWAY FROM THE COAST LINE AND OUT TO SEA. IF YOU BECOME CAUGHT IN A
RIP CURRENT...DO NOT PANIC. CALMLY...REMAIN AFLOAT...GATHER YOUR
BEARINGS RELATIVE TO THE BEACH...AND SWIM PARALLEL TO THE BEACH.
YOU WILL EVENTUALLY LEAVE THE GRIP OF THIS NARROW CURRENT...AND BE
ABLE TO SAFELY SWIM TO SHORE.

LOCAL BEACH GOERS...AND INEXPERIENCED SURFERS AND SWIMMERS SHOULD
STAY OUT OF THE WATER UNTIL THESE HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS SUBSIDE.
PERSONS ON THE BEACH SHOULD BE VIGILANT FOR LARGE BREAKING WAVES
SURGING UPON THE SHORE...WHICH CAN CARRY PEOPLE OF ALL SIZES INTO
THE OCEAN. YOU SHOULD AVOID BEING NEAR THE SHORE LINE AND STAY OFF
OF ROCK FORMATIONS.

STAY TUNED FOR ANY ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE WATCHES OR
WARNINGS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN SAN
JUAN.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU
OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

&&

$$

ER/FC/JJA
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
957 PM AST SAT NOV 13 2010

.UPDATE...THE LIMITED MOISTURE WHICH AFFECTED THE EASTERN INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON...MOVED AWAY. ONLY A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS PREVAILED ACROSS THE OFF SHORE CARIBBEAN WATERS.
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIR NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA. THIS AREA OF
DRY AIR WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...MAINTAINING PARTLY TO VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIMITED
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WILL BE THE HIGH RISK FOR DANGEROUS
RIP CURRENTS AND HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS...AS THE LONG-PERIOD
NORTH SWELLS...PROMOTE LARGE BREAKING WAVES ALONG THE NORTHERN
EXPOSED COASTLINES OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...AND THE NORTHERN
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. WAVE MODELS SUGGEST A SLOWLY SUBSIDE OF THESE
SWELLS EARLY NEXT WEEK. PLEASE REFER TO SJUCFWSJU AND SJUCWFSJU
FOR THE LATEST DETAILS ON THE EXPECTED MARINE CONDITIONS AND
ADVISORY HEADLINES.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.Today will be the peak of the big swells.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
550 AM AST SUN NOV 14 2010

.SYNOPSIS...THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH
TODAY...BEFORE BEING PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL CONTINUE TO FILL AND LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN REMAIN IN PLACE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...REMNANTS OF OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAIN LOCATED
SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AT THIS TIME AND WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
THERE THROUGH TODAY...BEFORE BEING PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FLARED UP
AGAIN OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE REMNANTS...AS WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND JET MAX INTERACT WITH THESE REMNANTS.
IN ADDITION...THERE IS ANOTHER WEAK LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY JUST
NORTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO AT THIS TIME AND MOVING SOUTHEAST. BASED
ON RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS AND MODEL DATA...DECIDED TO INDICATE
AN OVERALL INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE FA TODAY...IN WHAT SOMEWHAT LOOKS
LIKE A CASE OF "TROPICAL OVERRUNNING".

THE AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE PAST THE LOCAL
ISLANDS LATE TODAY OR EARLY TONIGHT...WITH MUCH DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR THEN STEADILY INFILTRATING THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AND THEN GENERALLY CONTINUING TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE
BANDS AND PATCHES OF MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM
TIME TO TIME...RESULTING IN BRIEF INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS AND
PASSING SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH SURF AND COASTAL CONDITIONS.

...THE LARGE...LONG PERIOD NORTH SWELL EVENT CONTINUES AND ALL
LOCAL MARINE AND BEACH ENTHUSIASTS...EMERGENCY MANAGERS...
RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS EVENT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY...

BASED ON OBSERVED BUOY CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING AND FORECAST
CONDITIONS LATER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...HAVE
KEPT THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR THE SAME AREAS AS BEFORE.
THIS ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE EXTENDED LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT...TO CONTINUE HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS PAST 8 AM AST
MONDAY. LARGE...LONG PERIOD NORTH SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO PEAK
ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN
PASSAGES THIS MORNING...AND THEN CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE SLOWLY SUBSIDING. THESE
SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN VERY ROUGH AND DANGEROUS SURF
CONDITIONS WITH FREQUENT AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. INEXPERIENCED SWIMMERS AND SURFERS ARE
STILL ADVISED TO REMAIN OUT OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS DURING
THIS TIME. OF NOTE...ALTHOUGH BREAKER HEIGHTS OF 15 TO 20 FEET OR
HIGHER AND RESULTANT SURF ARE LIKELY ONGOING...IT APPEARS THAT WE
MAY BE OKAY WITH THIS ADVISORY AND WILL NOT NEED TO UPGRADE TO A
HIGH SURF WARNING. HOWEVER...WILL RE-ADDRESS THIS ISSUE AFTER
DAYBREAK AND A VISUAL CHECK OF CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MARINE
CAMERAS.

IN ADDITION...A RECENT CHECK WITH LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
OFFICIALS...INDICATED NO ONGOING PROBLEMS DUE TO COASTAL FLOODING.
HOWEVER...OPTED TO CONTINUE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH UNTIL PEAK OF
SWELLS HAS OCCURRED THIS MORNING.

FOR MARINERS...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THESE LARGE...LONG PERIOD
NORTH SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO PEAK ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THIS MORNING...AND THEN
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...
WHILE SLOWLY SUBSIDING. THESE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
VERY ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE
LOCAL COASTAL WATERS TODAY. PLEASE REFER TO SJUCWFSJU AND
SJUMWWSJU FOR THE LATEST DETAILS ON THE EXPECTED MARINE
CONDITIONS AND ADVISORY HEADLINES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES FOR
NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH SCT-BKN CLD DECK OF 6-8KFT ACROSS REGION. A
VCSH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE VI THIS MORNING...WITH A VCSH OR
VCTS POSSIBLE ACROSS PR TAF SITES FROM 14/16-14/22Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 73 82 73 / 20 20 20 10
STT 86 74 85 72 / 20 20 20 10

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

If the GFS model on the long range is right,we could see another Tropical Cyclone forming just east of the Lesser Antilles by the end of the month. But,is many days away to know for sure if that will occur.However,even if nothing forms,it seems like a wet pattern in the Eastern Caribbean may occur during the last days of the month, so stay tuned for more information about this in the comming days.

[abajan]

If the GFS model on the long range is right,we could see another Tropical Cyclone forming just east of the Lesser Antilles by the end of the month. But,is many days away to know for sure if that will occur.However,even if nothing forms,it seems like a wet pattern in the Eastern Caribbean may occur during the last days of the month, so stay tuned for more information about this in the comming days. http://img204.imageshack.us/img204/1008/gfsten360l.gif

Well, Tomas was a very rare occurrence but another one forming in this region so late in the season would be absolutely crazy. And if the wet pattern pans out, Barbados will undoubtedly record its wettest year ever because we’re pretty close to that record now.

[chrisjslucia]

If the GFS model on the long range is right,we could see another Tropical Cyclone forming just east of the Lesser Antilles by the end of the month. But,is many days away to know for sure if that will occur.However,even if nothing forms,it seems like a wet pattern in the Eastern Caribbean may occur during the last days of the month, so stay tuned for more information about this in the comming days. http://img204.imageshack.us/img204/1008/gfsten360l.gif

Well, Tomas was a very rare occurrence but another one forming in this region so late in the season would be absolutely crazy. And if the wet pattern pans out, Barbados will undoubtedly record its wettest year ever because we’re pretty close to that record now.

Cyclone, where is this possible system at the moment?

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
228 PM AST SUN NOV 14 2010

.SYNOPSIS...THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS
EVENING BEFORE BEING PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC TONIGHT BEFORE FILLING AND LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST ON
MONDAY. MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND PROBABLY CONTINUE FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES DEPICTED THE REMNANTS OF AN
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN THERE TONIGHT...
BEFORE BEING PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH ON MONDAY. A GENERALLY DRIER AND
STABLE AIR MASS WILL ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...INDUCING A GENERALLY FAIR...DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
DRIER...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT SOME CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS EACH DAY.
THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PWAT VALUES WELL BELOW 1.5 INCHES
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL DOMINATE ALL TAF SITES MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
MOISTURE IS STILL SUBSTANTIAL TODAY AND A FEW SHRA ARE DEVELOPING...
APPROACHING PR FROM THE NORTH WHERE MID-LEVEL VORTICITY IS HELPING
GENERATE THEM. SCT-BKN 6-8KFT CONTINUES AND ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS REGION THIS AFTERNOON IN DIURNAL HEATING. DRY
ADVECTION WILL CAUSE DECREASING TREND IN CLDS/SHRA TO CONTINUE
TONIGHT/MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...THE LARGE...LONG PERIOD NORTH SWELL EVENT WILL CONTINUE
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN EXPOSED COASTAL AREAS...AND ALL LOCAL
MARINE AND BEACH ENTHUSIASTS...EMERGENCY MANAGERS...RESIDENTS AND
VISITORS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS EVENT
THROUGH MONDAY.

BASED ON OBSERVED CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND FORECAST CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY...HAVE KEPT THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN PLACE
FOR THE SAME AREAS AS BEFORE BUT HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL MONDAY
EVENING. LARGE...LONG PERIOD NORTH SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY SUBSIDE ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND THE
CARIBBEAN PASSAGES TONIGHT. WHILE SLOWLY SUBSIDING....THESE SWELLS
WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN VERY ROUGH AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS
WITH FREQUENT AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT OR
TUESDAY. INEXPERIENCED SWIMMERS AND SURFERS ARE STILL ADVISED TO
REMAIN OUT OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS DURING THIS TIME. A RECENT
CHECK WITH LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS...INDICATED NO
ONGOING PROBLEMS DUE TO COASTAL FLOODING...AND FOR THIS REASON...THE
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH WILL EXPIRE AT 4 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 82 73 83 / 20 20 10 10
STT 74 85 72 85 / 20 20 10 10

[cycloneye]

Cyclone, where is this possible system at the moment?

I can't see a trigger to an area in specific yet that may start the proccess like when the wave that gave birth to Tomas was trackable since it emerged Africa.But soon enough, something suspisious will appear so stay tuned in the next few days.

[cycloneye]

Chrisjslucia,a little more precise answer to your question than the above post that I made is to look for something in the area between 30-50W and south of 10N. The new GFS run at 18z focus the area that I mentioned starting in 192 hours (On the 22nd)

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
947 PM AST SUN NOV 14 2010

.UPDATE...VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR OF PR STILL
HAVEN/T QUITE DISSIPATED BUT EXPECT INCREASING STABILITY TO
SQUELCH THEM OVER LAND BY MIDNIGHT OR SO. MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SHOWERS HAVE MOVED JUST OFFSHORE BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH OF PR...
AIDED BY AN INCREASING LAND BREEZE. CLOUDS HANGING OVER THE AREA
WITH LITTLE REASON TO DISSIPATE COMPLETELY TONIGHT. THUS BOOSTED
THE SKY COVER IN GRIDS/ZONES FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MIMIC-TPW SHOWS NO CURRENT TENDENCY FOR LOWER
PRECIPITABLE WATER TO MOVE TOWARDS PR/VI. NAM TRIES TO PUSH LOWER
VALUES INTO THE AREA EVEN LATE TONIGHT IN SPITE OF NOT TURNING THE
DEEP LAYERED FLOW TOWARDS NORTHWEST. HAVE SIDED WITH GFS IN
KEEPING THE MOISTURE STEADY UNTIL LATER MON AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
OVER CUBA/HISPANIOLA AND FINALLY TURNING THE FLOW MORE NORTHWEST.
UNTIL THEN...EXPECT SHOWERS TO STAY OVER REGIONAL WATERS MUCH THE
SAME AS LAST NIGHT THOUGH THE DRY ADVECTION WILL ARRIVE IN TIME TO
SUPRESS CONVECTION ON MON AFTERNOON A LITTLE MORE THAN OCCURRED
SUNDAY.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
439 AM AST MON NOV 15 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AN OVERALL DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL
AREA TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY...AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY EXTENDS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH
LOCAL EFFECTS...DIURNAL HEATING AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS
CONDITIONS TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONVECTION...
IF ANY...SHOULD BE SHALLOW AND SPOTTY.

PROGNOSTIC SOUNDINGS...COMPUTER MODELS AS WELL AS TPW MIMIC
PRODUCT INDICATED A DRYING TREND DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS
PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY...AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY EXTENDS
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...IN ADDITION TO A MUCH DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR MASS INFILTRATING INTO THE AREA. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
LIGHT AND SHALLOW CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS SECTIONS OF EASTERN
AND NORTHERN PUERTO RICO EACH MORNING WITH MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY
EACH AFTERNOON. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATED BEST CHANCES OF WEATHER
ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO DURING THE NEXT WORK
WEEK...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS. NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT DURING
THE DAY BECOMING CALM AT NIGHT. MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN LATE TUE
NIGHT/EARLY WED THAT COULD RESULT IN MVFR CIGS JSJ/JBQ/IST THEN
CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT AFTER SUNRISE.



&&

.MARINE...LARGE...LONG PERIOD NORTH SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
SUBSIDE ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES
TODAY. THESE SWELLS WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE TO AFFECT PARTS OF THE
LOCAL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY...RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS.
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN EXPOSED
COASTLINES...SHOALS AND REEFS OF MAINLAND PUERTO RICO AND CULEBRA
THROUGH 8 PM AST MONDAY EVENING.

[cycloneye]

GFS continues to show a TC forming by the end of the month in the 00z run of last night. Instead of posting graphics,I am posting this time a loop of the 00z GFS run,where all can see how things start to evolve after 192 hours ,especially, how the inestability increases in the region.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[cycloneye]

Sad news from Hatillo,Puerto Rico, as a 17 year old young man vanished in a beach.My prayers go to his family.See the news below with translation to english.

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 18348.html

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
157 PM AST MON NOV 15 2010

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
DISSIPATE WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS EVENING. AN
OVERALL DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH
AT LEAST FRIDAY...AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
EXTENDS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON DEPICTED A RAIN FREE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. ONLY FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS WERE DETECTED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...OUTSIDE
OF OUR COASTAL WATERS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WEAK REMNANTS OF
AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THESE REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
TONIGHT. THE GFS AND NAM MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE TPW MIMIC...
SUGGEST A DRY TREND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THUS...A GENERALLY
DRIER AND STABLE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS PERIOD OF PLEASANT
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
THE FA BY THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...SLIGHTLY INCREASING THE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED ALL TAF SITES FOR NEXT 24
HOURS IN LLVL ENE WIND FLOW NEAR 10 KTS. A VCSH OR VCTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE NEAR TJPS OR TJMZ AS AN ISOLATED SHRA OR TSRA MAY DEVELOP
OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL BETWEEN 16/16-16/22Z...BUT NO SHRA OR
TSRA ACTIVITY EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...LARGE...LONG PERIOD NORTH SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THIS
EVENING. THESE SWELLS WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE TO AFFECT PARTS OF THE
LOCAL WATERS OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS.
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN EXPOSED
COASTLINES...SHOALS AND REEFS OF MAINLAND PUERTO RICO AND CULEBRA
THROUGH 8 PM AST THIS EVENING.

[msbee]

Sad news from Hatillo,Puerto Rico, as a 17 year old young man vanished in a beach.My prayers go to his family.See the news below with translation to english.

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 18348.html

sorry to hear that Luis. so young. how sad

[cycloneye]

Good news tonight that the high surf advisory has terminated as the swells are going down.But still the small craft advisory is in effect.

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
443 PM AST MON NOV 15 2010

...ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC AND PARTS OF THE LOCAL PASSAGES THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY...

.LARGE...LONG PERIOD NORTH SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THIS
EVENING. THESE SWELLS WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE TO AFFECT PARTS OF
THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY...RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS.

AMZ710-741-160445-
/O.CON.TJSJ.SC.Y.0073.000000T0000Z-101116T1600Z/
ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-
MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-
443 PM AST MON NOV 15 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AST
TUESDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
NOON AST TUESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 22 TO 33 KNOTS AND/OR
SEAS OF 7 FEET AND GREATER ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

[Gustywind]