Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1045 PM AST MON NOV 15 2010

.UPDATE...EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN A
COUPLE OF LOCATIONS...BUT MUCH OF THE TIME IT WILL REMAIN DRY.

LONG PERIOD NORTH SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SWELLS HAD SUBSIDED ENOUGH BY EARLY
EVENING...THAT ALTHOUGH LOCALLY ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP
CURRENTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...10 FOOT BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS ARE
NO LONGER EXPECTED AND THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA WAS ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE AT 8 PM AST. INHERITED SHORT TERM GRIDS AND ZFP HAD A
PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON EXPECTED CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...BUT SENT A
QUICK UPDATE EARLIER TO ADD ISOLATED SHOWERS TO SOME NORTH COASTAL
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...AREAS OF FOG TO INTERIOR PUERTO RICO AND
TO REMOVE THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY HEADLINE. FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...
MADE A COUPLE OF SEMANTIC ALTERATIONS TO THE PREVIOUS CWF...MAINLY
TO THE SYNOPSIS...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
436 AM AST TUE NOV 16 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL
AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...AS A MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY EXTENDS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY
PREVAILED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A MUCH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS OVER
THE LOCAL AREA. ALTHOUGH...NWS DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN WATERS...WITH FEW
SPRINKLES NOTED OVER LAND AREAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH COAST
OF PUERTO RICO.

LATEST GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA THROUGH MID WEEK. AS
A RESULT...A SUBSIDENCE CAP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...WITH
LOW PWAT VALUES EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FOUR DAYS OR SO.
HOWEVER...CONTINUE TO EXPECT LIGHT AND SHALLOW CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ACROSS SECTIONS OF EASTERN AND NORTHERN PUERTO RICO EACH MORNING
WITH MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH AFTERNOON. AS THE WINDS
SHIFT...PATCHY SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL THEN ADVECT ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. THUS...BETTER CHANCES OF MORNING SHOWERS EXPECTED AFTER
TOMORROW MORNING. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WHEN A SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARDS THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS. NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT
DURING THE DAY BECOMING CALM AT NIGHT. MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN
EARLY WED MORNING THAT COULD RESULT IN TEMPO MVFR CIGS JSJ/JBQ/IST
THEN CLOUDS SCATTER OUT AFTER SUNRISE. THIS REPEATS ITSELF AGAIN
THU MORNING.

[cycloneye]

Great weather to continue in a big part of the Eastern Caribbean at least until the weekend so enjoy it! The exception may be in the Windwards,where a surface trough or easterly wave may bring some scattered showers to those islands.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
236 PM AST TUE NOV 16 2010

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED IN A COUPLE OF LOCATIONS...BUT MUCH OF THE TIME IT WILL
REMAIN DRY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON DEPICTED A RAIN FREE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
ONLY FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE DETECTED ACROSS THE SURROUNDING
COASTAL WATERS. THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE TPW
MIMIC...SUGGEST A DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THUS...A GENERALLY DRIER AND STABLE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO
ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND THIS PERIOD OF PLEASANT WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...CONTINUE TO EXPECT LIGHT AND SHALLOW CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS SECTIONS OF EASTERN AND NORTHERN PUERTO RICO EACH
MORNING WITH MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE FA LATER DURING
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...SLIGHTLY INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. NO
AVIATION WEATHER HAZARD IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. LLVL WIND FLOW
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NNE AT 10 TO 15 KTS.

[abajan]

...The exception may be in the Windwards,where a surface trough or easterly wave may bring some scattered showers to those islands...

Yep. As a matter of fact, one of those welcomed showers is soon gonna fall here, by the looks of it.

[cycloneye]

Below is today's discussion by Crownweather Services about a possible development by the end of the month. I agree with his analysis.

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=325

Model Guidance Forecasting Eastern Caribbean Storm At The Very End Of The Month:
I wanted to mention that the GFS model has been consistently forecasting the development of a tropical cyclone at the very end of this month and into the first few days of December. The GFS model has been onboard with this forecast since late last week and it is currently forecasting that this potential system will form in the southeastern Caribbean right around the 29th or 30th of November and forecasts it to track northwestward towards Puerto Rico by about the 2nd of December.

Do I believe the GFS model’s forecast?? To be honest, not really and let me explain why:

First reason is that much of the Atlantic Basin, including much of the Caribbean is now shut down for the season as wind shear values are way too high to support tropical cyclone development and dry air has invaded pretty much the entire Atlantic.

The second reason is that the GFS model is the only model that is forecasting this. The other guidance, which most go out to about Thanksgiving Day right now do not even hint at the idea forecast by the GFS model.

The third and final reason is that the timeline for this potential development continues to be pushed up, meaning the GFS model is consistently pushing back the date of development. It first forecast the development late last week would occur around Thanksgiving. This morning, it is forecasting that the development will not occur until the 30th of November or the 1st of December. So, this is very suspect to me.

So, in closing, I am not buying the GFS model’s forecast of a tropical cyclone forming in the eastern Caribbean at the end of the month. With that said, it is something that I will keep an eye on and I will keep you all updated.

[abajan]

Are my eyes deceiving me or do I detect some slight rotation in that cloudiness SE of Barbados? Then again my experience with Tomas probably has me a bit jittery and thinking that every cumulonimbus in that area will become a storm!
(At any rate, convection there is waning.)

[cycloneye]

Are my eyes deceiving me or do I detect some slight rotation in that cloudiness SE of Barbados? Then again my experience with Tomas probably has me a bit jittery and thinking that every cumulonimbus in that area will become a storm!
(At any rate, convection there is waning.)

You are not alone as I see a very weak hint of a twist there,but nothing to worry about in terms of development. Scattered showers will continue to move thru the Windwards as the surface trough moves thru the area.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-avn.html

[cycloneye]

Good morning.A cold front will arrive by Sunday bringing scattered showers,windy conditions and cooler temperatures.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
426 AM AST WED NOV 17 2010

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE OF HIGH PRES SFC AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THRU
THE END OF THE WEEK. A CDFNT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
SUN NIGHT. RIDGE WILL BUILD AGAIN NORTH OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. VERY SHALLOW
MOISTURE HOWEVER MAY RESULT IN ISOLD EARLY MORNING SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE...WARM AND DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SVRL S/W TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
WHICH RESULTS IN RIDGE FLATTENING. THIS ALLOWS FOR A CDFNT TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA SUN NIGHT. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASES
SUBSTANTIALLY ALONG/AHEAD OF THIS BDRY ALTHOUGH BRIEFLY WHICH MAY
ALLOW FOR DEEP CONVECTION TO DEVELOP SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING.
HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND THIS FRONT IS QUITE STRONG WITH MODELS
PUSHING THIS FRONT ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE WINDWARDS AND THE ABC
ISLANDS.

AS SFC-H85 RIDGE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION SUN-WED...PRES GRADIENT
TIGHTENS WITH 20 KT SFC WINDS LIKELY AND 30KT ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THE STRONG TRADES AND THE COOL ADVECTIVE PATTERN MAY
ALLOW FOR MORE SCT/NRMS LOW-TOPPED EARLY MORNING SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP THAT WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES...ALTHOUGH MVFR
CONDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AFT 17/10Z IN AND AROUND TJSJ/TJBQ AND
TISX/TIST IN LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS. NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION WEATHER
HAZARD OR IMPACT ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. NE LLVL WIND FLOW AT
5 TO 15 KTS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD AGAIN TONIGHT ON MIXED NNE
SWELLS AND WIND WAVES.

[cycloneye]

Abajan, there is no backdown by GFS on increasing the moisture in the Eastern Caribbean in the last days of this month,and going into the first days of December. The model has been consistent on that occuring. Also,it hints on something cyclonic forming and that also has been consistent.I dont buy the cyclonic part,but let's see if other models join GFS on that. In other words,if this scenario by GFS pans out,then Barbados and other islands will have more rainfall to add to the years totals that have been well above normal. Lets continue to watch and see if in reallity it occurs.12z loop below.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
257 PM AST WED NOV 17 2010

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WILL PRODUCE A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING UNSTABLE AIR TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS. AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WINDS
IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS. IN FACT...
THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AFFECTING
THE NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. MINIMAL RAINFALL WAS
MEASURED OVER LAND. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS APPROACHING TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE REST OF TODAY...SMALL BANDS AND PATCHES
OF MOISTURE WILL STILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME
AND WILL RESULT IN BRIEF INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER
PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

STILL EXPECT PRETTY DECENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
WITH RELATIVE COOLER TEMPERATURE READINGS AND FAIRLY LOW DEW POINTS.
THIS FAIR WEATHER PATTERN IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE HISPANOLA THAT IS GENERATING
STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN.

LONG TERM...AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED LATE THIS
WEEKEND...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING
CARIBBEAN WATERS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. BY THAT TIME...MODERATE TO
STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DOMINATE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL
ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED ALL TAF SITES FOR NEXT 24
HOURS...WITH A VCSH POSSIBLE ACROSS TJSJ...TIST...TNCM AND TISX
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ENE LLVL WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KTS
EXPECTED THROUGH 18/12Z...INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KTS AFT 18/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 7 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 19 KNOTS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE LOCAL OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS AND SMALL
BOAT OPERATORS ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE LOCAL
PASSAGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 85 74 84 / 20 10 30 30
STT 73 85 75 86 / 10 10 30 30

[Gustywind]

[abajan]

Abajan, there is no backdown by GFS on increasing the moisture in the Eastern Caribbean in the last days of this month,and going into the first days of December. The model has been consistent on that occuring. Also,it hints on something cyclonic forming and that also has been consistent.I dont buy the cyclonic part,but let's see if other models join GFS on that. In other words,if this scenario by GFS pans out,then Barbados and other islands will have more rainfall to add to the years totals that have been well above normal. Lets continue to watch and see if in reallity it occurs.12z loop below.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Interesting. Thanks, cycloneye.

[chrisjslucia]

Abajan, there is no backdown by GFS on increasing the moisture in the Eastern Caribbean in the last days of this month,and going into the first days of December. The model has been consistent on that occuring. Also,it hints on something cyclonic forming and that also has been consistent.I dont buy the cyclonic part,but let's see if other models join GFS on that. In other words,if this scenario by GFS pans out,then Barbados and other islands will have more rainfall to add to the years totals that have been well above normal. Lets continue to watch and see if in reallity it occurs.12z loop below.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

This is from Jeff Master's blog today:
Posted by: JeffMasters, 1:40 PM GMT on November 17, 2010
What may be the final tropical disturbance in the Atlantic (94L) has fizzled, due to dry air and increasing wind shear, and there's an excellent chance that this will be final "Invest" of 2010 in the Caribbean. The 2-week wind shear forecast from the GFS model is showing a dramatic increase in wind shear over the Caribbean in the coming weeks, which should put an end to the Caribbean hurricane season.

Is this a case of right hand model and left hand model....?

[cycloneye]

Is this a case of right hand model and left hand model....?

Yes,GFS is like two different models, but being the same. The model has performed very good all season long, but maybe the feedback that is having now is not the best.What we have to watch is if moisture increases in the Eastern Caribbean as the model has shown since last week.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. For the first time the San Juan discussion mentions the end of the month wet scenario for the Eastern Caribbean.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
408 AM AST THU NOV 18 2010

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. A CDFNT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUN EVENING. RIDGE
BUILDS AGAIN NORTH OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RIDGING WILL MAINTAIN FAIR WX CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HRS AND WARM DRY AFTERNOONS.

SVRL S/W TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WRN ATLC OVR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WHICH RESULTS IN FLATTENING OF THE MID-UPPER LVL RIDGE. THESE
SUPPORT A CDFNT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUN. LOOKS
LIKE SUN NIGHT WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORE SCT/NRMS CVRG
BUT MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST PR AND THE USVI UNDER A NE SFC FLOW.

STRONG SFC-H5 RIDGE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK
INCREASING THE PRES GRADIENT/WINDS WHILE AT H25 A NARROW
ENLOGATED TROUGH ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE REGION. THE STRONG TRADES
AND THE COOL ADVECTIVE PATTERN SHOULD SUPPORT MORE NMRS/FREQ
SHOWERS IN THE EARLY MORNING THAN WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY.

A MUCH WETTER PATTERN IS SUGGESTED BY GLOBAL MODELS TOWARD THE END
OF THE MONTH (AFTER THANKSGIVING) AS A POLAR TROUGH ESTABLISHES NORTH
OF THE REGION WITH AN INVERTED TROF PATTERN AT THE SFC. THIS MAY
ALLOW FOR AN ITCZ FLARE UP EVENT AS TRADES WEAKEN AND POLAR TROUGH
PULLS DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES...WITH VCSH POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJSJ/TJBQ AND TISX/TIST.
NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION WEATHER HAZARD OR IMPACT ARE ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME. NE LLVL WIND FLOW AT 15 TO 20 KTS WILL PREVAIL.


&&

.MARINE...SEVEN FOOT SEAS FAILED TO MATERIALIZE WITH LOCAL BUOYS
INDICATING SIX FOOT SEAS AND WINDS 15-20 KT. GIVEN THAT MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SEAS SHOULD COME DOWN A BIT NEXT 24-48 HRS
WILL CANCEL SCA FOR AMZ710. HOWEVER...SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD
AGAIN SUN IN NE SWELLS WITH THE APPROACH OF A CDFNT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 74 85 74 / 10 30 20 30
STT 85 74 85 77 / 20 30 20 10

[abajan]

Looks like a pretty rainy day ahead here. We had quite a bit overnight and this morning. We even had some thunder about 20 minutes ago. So far this year, our airport has had 1722.6 mm of rain. According to these records, this is the second wettest year seen by our airport. Just 106 mm (about 4 inches) more rain would make 2010 the wettest year ever recorded. With six weeks left in the year, I think that landmark is within sight.

[chrisjslucia]

Heavy, at times torrential, rain over St Lucia today after showers yesterday. The East Coast road is closed again because of river flooding south of Castries at Bexon; floods in Castries and news of a bridge down and a child drowned in Balata. Heaven only knows what is happening in the South but I read elsewhere the road to Soufriere is closed again because of further landslides. The idea of a sustained period of heavy rain later this month as forecast by GFS is too grim to bear thinking about. Still mains water came back on in my community last night for a few hours so we have potable water stored now plus rainwater.

[cycloneye]

GFS continues to show the wet scenario by the end of the month for the Eastern Caribbean. Below is the 12z run in loop.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Macrocane]

Yesterday was the rainiest day in El Salvador since October 29 and the rainiest in San Salvador since October 25, November is usually the first month of the dry season so it's normal to have little rain, yesterday minimum temperatures were the highest since November 3 but a new northerly winds situation has began today so temepratures may drop in the next few days, this event is not expected to be as cold as the last one. These are yesterday observations:

Temperatures
Acajutla min: 22.4°C (72.3°F) max: 29.5°C (85.1°F)
Santa Ana min: 19.4°C (66.9°F) max: 28.4°C(83.1°F)
San Salvador min: 19.5°C (67.1°F) max: 29.3°C (84.7°F)
Las Pilas min: 13.2°C (55.8°F) max: 20.8°C (69.4°F)
El Pacayal min: 13.7°C (56.7°F) max: 21.2°C (70.2°F)
San Miguel min: 20.5°C (68.9°F) max: 33.7°C (92.7°F)

Rainfall in some locations:
Perquin 42.3 mm/1.67 inches
San Andres 42 mm/1.65 inches
San Salvador 14 mm/0.55 inches
San Vicente 12 mm/0.47 inches
Acajutla 1.7 mm/0.07 inches

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
301 PM AST THU NOV 18 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER HAITI...
WILL SLOWLY MOVES TO THE WEST LATE THIS WEEK...AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACH TO THE FORECAST AREA. IN THE MEANTIME...A DRY AND STABLE
AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS TOMORROW AND SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE REST OF TODAY...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS FROM TIME TO TIME...
RESULTING IN BRIEF INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL TEND TO BE LIGHT...AFFECTING MAINLY THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.

IT APPEARS THAT A MAJOR CHANGE IN WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...IN ASSOCIATION WITH APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH AN
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...RESULTING IN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND THE
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN BY SUNDAY DUE TO THE HIGH
PRESSURE IN A WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT...THE COOL
ADVECTIVE PATTERN OVER WARMER WATERS WILL TRIGGER SHALLOW
CONVECTION...DURING EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...VERY
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS OR LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...SMALL BOAT
OPERATORS ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL
WATERS. THE SEAS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO
THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 85 73 84 / 20 20 30 30
STT 74 85 75 86 / 20 20 10 10