Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[TwisterFanatic]

Fortunately the 6Z gfs looks a bit more zonal and quite a bit warmer-excellent news all around.

6 and 18z = yack

[amawea]

dwsqos2

Fortunately the 6Z gfs looks a bit more zonal and quite a bit warmer-excellent news all around.

Hey! We are snow lovers in the south. We like for Christmas.

[Ivanhater]

dws, I see you only posted one run out of the last few days

Anyway, the 18z GFS continues to idea of a cold end of Novemberrrrrr

[Ivanhater]

12z Euro came in COLD for the Gulf coast and deep south

[Ivanhater]

This storm around December 8th is getting a lot of chatter for those in the Deep south..00z Euro shows a big snow storm flying all across the deep south. 06 GFS is quite interesting as well...although not as consistent as the Euro but very consistent on cold air plunging deep south.


00z Euro

[Ivanhater]

The 12z euro is showing a snow storm for south Mississippi Alabama and the Florida panhandle if I'm reading it correctly

[HouTXmetro]

darnit, I'm suppose to drive from Texas to Alabama and Atlanta for a football game on December 10th. any chance the weather turns out nice? I have never driven in snow so I'm starting to get concerned.

[frigidice77]

Does it show snow for savanna georgia or jacksonville florida?

[TwisterFanatic]

EURO is WAYYYYY too far south, imo.

[somethingfunny]

darnit, I'm suppose to drive from Texas to Alabama and Atlanta for a football game on December 10th. any chance the weather turns out nice? I have never driven in snow so I'm starting to get concerned.

Since the storm is supposed to hit on the 8th, I guess the big question for you is how long will the temperatures stay below freezing?

Driving in the snow isn't that bad really - any roadway that gets heavily travelled should remain unfrozen. If you do end up in heavy snow or on ice, just take it easy and steer into any skids you encounter. Go slowly and you'll get there. Alabama's really far to travel at 30mph though so I dunno....you could consider looking at Amtrak? They usually don't stop for snow and it should be cheaper/less hassle than flying.

[MGC]

If this were to verify, which IMO is unlikely, it would be the third year in a row for areas in the deep south to witness a snow event in early December......MGC

[Ivanhater]

Montgomery Alabama AFD discussion

JUST BEYOND THE RANGE OF THIS FORECAST -- I HAVE TO CHUCKLE AT THE
DISCUSSIONS AND SNOW-MONGERING THAT ARE LIKELY GOING ON...GIVEN
THE PAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE EUROPEAN MODEL (AND PREVIOUS RUNS OF
THE GFS). A LOOK AT THE GFS ENSEMBLES...AND THE DGEX...REVEALS
THAT THERE IS A BIG RANGE OF POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS AND IT IS GOING
TO TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE MODELS TO SETTLE DOWN AND LOCK INTO ANY
ONE PARTICULAR SCENARIO. NO TIME FOR HYPE...YET.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Ivan, I posted this in the SE TX/SW LA thread but will put it here as well for us deep southerners. It is the long range forecast from our BTR/NO office this morning.

THIS IS WHERE
THINGS GET INTERESTING...DEPENDING ON WHICH GLOBAL SOLUTION YOU
LIKE.

BOTH THE EURO AND THE NORTH AMERICAN SUITES ARE INITIALIZING VERY
WELL. THEREFORE...MUST GO WITH EXPERIENCE AS WE APPROACH THE END
OF THE 7TH DAY GOING INTO THE 8TH DAY. BOTH GLOBAL MODELS DIG AN
UPPER GREAT LAKES TROUGH BUT THEY DIFFER IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE
UPPER CUT OFF LOW OUT OF THE PACIFIC THROUGH THE SW. THE GFS
ERODES THE LOW WHILE THE EURO KEEPS IT IN TACT. THE IN TACT
SCENARIO SEEMS TO BE MORE LIKELY SINCE THE UPPER LOW IS MOVING TO
THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LARGE UPPER HIGH. THE UPPER LOWS WOULD BE
MOVING THROUGH TEMPS THAT ARE WARMER THAN ITS CORE WHICH WOULD
CAUSE IT TO STAY TOGETHER AS IT MOVES EAST. IT WOULD THEN OPEN UP
TO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SINCE THE TEMP STRUCTURE
BETWEEN THEM WILL BE OF LITTLE DIFFERENCE. THIS IS THE EURO
SCENARIO. NOW COMES THE BIG PROBLEM...BOTH MODELS BRING A COLD AIR
MASS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY. IF
THIS UPPER LOW STAYS IN TACT...WHICH IT SHOULD...A STRONG GULF LOW
WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL SLING AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE
BACK OVER THIS COLD AIR BY TUE NIGHT INTO WED. OBVIOUSLY...TIMING
AND A BUNCH OF OTHER THINGS CAN AND PROBABLY WILL CHANGE WITH THIS
BUT IT IS SOMETHING THAT WE WILL HAVE TO BE WEARY OF AS WE GET
INTO NEXT WEEK.

[Ivanhater]

Great discussion Mike! Really breaks down the scenario going on.

[Ivanhater]

So it begins....

Accuweather forecast for Mobile Alabama next Wednesday...Rain and SNOW

http://www.accuweather.com/us/al/mobile/36601/forecast-details.asp?fday=9

[Ivanhater]

JMA model shows a big snow storm for the Florida panhandle and the Alabama/Mississippi coastlines

Weather channel forecast

[northjaxpro]

Yeah Ivanhater next week looks intriguing based on the Euro runs. I normally like the GFS model during the winter months. The next few days I will be looking for more of a consensus with the model runs about this possible wintry weather event for the Deep South. It's all about timing of course and how much of an arctic air intrusion comes southward. But, I must say that it is definitely something to monitor over the next week for sure.

[Ivanhater]

Uh oh..the 00Z gfs is starting to come on board

[Ivanhater]

00z GFS does indeed show snow for the Gulf coast

[Ivanhater]

06z GFS still on snow for the Gulf coast





00z Euro is PLENTY cold enough