Severe Weather Event Thanksgiving Week.

[srainhoutx]

Certainly appears a clash of air mass may be ahead...

[vbhoutex]

Where is the clash going to take place? Can't tell I haven't looked at any models today can you?

[srainhoutx]

Southern Plains to the EC... that's my hunch...

[srainhoutx]

As mentioned yesterday, there may be a severe weather event as a strong cold front marches SE across the CONUS. The 12Z is beginning to hint that this will need to be watched in the days ahead as we move closer to a big travel week ahead of Thanksgiving.

[srainhoutx]

Dodge City, KS has commented and it is worth mentioning...

BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK...THE LARGE TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST OR
THE ROCKIES...WILL AMPLIFY AND APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS. THERE IS
SOME INDICATION THAT MID LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS MAY OCCUR AT THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH BY MID NEXT WEEK AND WOULD OFFER THE NEXT CHANCE AT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. BY THIS TIME... GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE WOULD LIKELY HAVE ACCESS TO ANY DEVELOPING LOW...AND VERY
COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL ALSO BE CLOSE BY BEHIND THE NEARBY FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SO BAROCLINIC INSTABILITY AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE MAY FOSTER STORM DEVELOPMENT BY THANKSGIVING TIME
FRAME THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

[Stephanie]

Things that make you go "HMMMMM..."

[srainhoutx]

Some early SREF data suggests a severe threat potential may well be possible along the Arctic Boundary. We'll need to watch this as the weekend progresses toward a busy Holiday Travel period...

[srainhoutx]

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0143 AM CST SAT NOV 20 2010

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH/BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE CONUS ON MONDAY...AN EMBEDDED/CONSIDERABLE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO RACE NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES VICINITY BY EARLY
TUESDAY. AS A SURFACE LOW STEADILY DEEPENS/ADVANCES NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES...SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY ALONG A GENERALLY EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT.

...MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES...
A STRONG EARLY DAY LOW LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED WARM
ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE NORTHWARD FLUX/PARTIAL RETURN OF A MODIFIED
MARITIME AIRMASS ACROSS THE MIDWEST...AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW/EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. ASIDE FROM THE POSSIBILITY OF
EARLY DAY ELEVATED TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/MAINLY LAKE MI
GENERAL VICINITY...IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT THE PRIMARY TIMING OF WARM
SECTOR TSTMS AND ANY SEVERE THREAT MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL THE
EVENING/PERHAPS LATE NIGHT HOURS...ROUGHLY COINCIDENT WITH THE
EXPECTED MAIN ARRIVAL OF THE PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH/JET STREAK.
REGARDLESS...BUOYANCY WILL BE LIMITED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AMID THE
GENERAL PREVALENCE OF 50S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS.
NONETHELESS...PROVIDED WEAK BUOYANCY OF SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG CAPE
MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...A RATHER STRONG LOW/MID TROPOSPHERIC WIND
FIELD MAY BE CONDUCIVE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED/FAST
MOVING STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS CAPABLE OF WIND DAMAGE...AT LEAST ON AN
ISOLATED BASIS.

..GUYER.. 11/20/2010

[Dave]

SPC AC 210659

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CST SUN NOV 21 2010

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG/BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE PREVALENT OVER THE MAJORITY OF
THE CONUS ON MONDAY VIA A GRADUALLY EASTWARD SHIFTING LONGWAVE
TROUGH. WITHIN THIS REGIME...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO RACE
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES VICINITY BY EARLY TUESDAY...WITH A SECONDARY
IMPULSE CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT...ALL
AHEAD OF A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD OVER
BRITISH COLUMBIA/PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE TIED TO A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW/EASTWARD
ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OZARKS/MID-SOUTH.

...MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO OZARKS/MID-SOUTH...
A STRONG EARLY DAY SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED WARM
ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE
A NORTHWARD FLUX/PARTIAL RETURN OF A MODIFIED MARITIME AIRMASS INTO
THE MIDWEST...AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW/EASTWARD ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. BY AFTERNOON...50S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE PREVALENT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE PRE-COLD FRONTAL WARM SECTOR...WITH LOWER 60S F
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX/OZARKS.

WHILE ELEVATED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAKE MI GENERAL
VICINITY DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THE PRIMARY TIMING OF NEAR-COLD FRONTAL TSTMS AND ANY
ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL THE EVENING/PERHAPS
LATE NIGHT HOURS. THIS WOULD BE ROUGHLY COINCIDENT WITH THE EXPECTED
ARRIVAL OF A CENTRAL PLAINS/LOWER MO VALLEY SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/JET STREAK. MARGINAL MOISTURE/WEAK BUOYANCY...AND A NOCTURNAL
POST-SUNSET TENDENCY FOR MUCH OF THE CONVECTION...ARE ALL LIMITING
FACTORS. NONETHELESS...PROVIDED WEAK BUOYANCY OF SEVERAL HUNDRED
J/KG CAPE MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...A RATHER STRONG LOW/MID
TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD AND APPRECIABLY INCREASING DEEP FORCING FOR
ASCENT...ESPECIALLY LOWER MI TO THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OH/MS
RIVERS...WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR RELATIVELY LOW-TOPPED/FAST MOVING
STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS CAPABLE OF WIND DAMAGE/PERHAPS A BRIEF
TORNADO...AT LEAST ON AN ISOLATED BASIS.

..GUYER.. 11/21/2010

[WeatherGuesser]

Well, I'll take the rain in the western Ohio River Valley, but it's a little late. Growing season is over, leaves are gone and whatever plants survived the drought are dormant for the winter, so the rain will just make mud while it replenishes the water table.

I think we've had about 5" of rain since September (officially, but I haven't had that much in my yard) and we're down by over 12" for the year.

This is the first forecast I've seen in months showing good chances of rain for more than 2 days in a row.

[srainhoutx]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0647 AM CST MON NOV 22 2010

VALID 221300Z - 231200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

A LARGE LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS RAPIDLY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES TODAY...WHILE THE ASSOCIATED 80-90
KNOT MID LEVEL JET NOSES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH HAVE BEEN
TRANSPORTING PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR MASS NORTHWARD WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AS FAR NORTH AS PORTIONS OF IL/IND. AS A
COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS WILL INCREASE.

OPERATIONAL AND STORM-SCALE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF IL/WI/IND/LOWER MI
THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...IN REGION OF STRONG LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION. 12Z OBSERVED AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST RATHER
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BUT WEAK CAPE AND MINIMAL SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY. SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
CELLS...BUT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

BY LATE AFTERNOON...THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM A
SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN WI INTO CENTRAL MO AND NORTHERN OK.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND
SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS IL/IND. THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS WILL
REMAIN QUITE WEAK. HOWEVER...STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND
LINEAR NATURE OF CONVECTION WILL POSE A RISK OF GUSTY AND
OCCASIONALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING
WHETHER SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
STORMS...SO WILL MAINTAIN ONLY 5% PROBS AT THIS TIME.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE
EVENING INTO PARTS OF AR. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER IN THIS AREA...BUT VEERED LOW LEVEL WINDS AND
WEAKER LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL BE OFFSETTING FACTORS FOR A MORE
ROBUST SEVERE THREAT.

..HART/HURLBUT.. 11/22/2010

[srainhoutx]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1007 AM CST MON NOV 22 2010

VALID 221630Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS MID MS VALLEY INTO LOWER OH VALLEY...


...MID MS VALLEY...
GIVEN THE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY AHEAD
OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW NOW SERN IA AND THE COLD FRONT
ENTERING WRN MO...IT NOW APPEARS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL BE
AVAILABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MID MS VALLEY. WITH THE
S/WV TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING NEWD FROM SD/NEB TO UPPER MS VALLEY BY
THIS EVENING...THE ASSOCIATED VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR I.E.
500MB WIND MAX OF 90-100 AND 300MB WINDS TO 150KT ALONG WITH LARGE
SCALE ASCENT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR E OF MS RIVER.

SINCE OBSERVED MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 7C/KM...AND WITH
SURFACE TEMPS RISING TO NEAR 70F AHEAD OF FRONT ACROSS IL...MLCAPES
WILL BE AOA 500 J/KG WITH LITTLE CINH BY MID AFTERNOON...MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT TO JUSTIFY A CONDITIONAL THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
INCLUDING SUPERCELLS.

SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS SRN/ERN WI LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE WARM FRONT TO SHIFT NWD POSSIBLY AS FAR AS
INTO SERN WI PRIOR TO ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT. CURRENT ELEVATED
STORMS N OF WARM FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE
BASED STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE BY MID AFTERNOON
VICINITY COLD FRONT AS IT CROSSES MS RIVER INTO IL.

PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR
PROFILES AND DRY MID LEVELS ENHANCING DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER...SUPERCELLS INCLUDING TORNADO'S ARE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY
JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK VICINITY THE WARM FRONT WHERE
LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ENHANCED AND THE GREATEST POTENTIAL OF ANY
DISCRETE CELLS WILL OCCUR.

BY EVENING STORMS WILL CONTINUED TO DEVELOP SWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT
INTO NRN AR AND EVENTUALLY LOWER OH/WRN TN VALLEY. EXTENT OF SEVERE
THREAT THIS FAR SOUTH STILL UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE UPPER SUPPORT MOVING
WELL TO THE NORTH AND MORE CINH TO OVER COME. HOWEVER AT LEAST SOME
THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE EXPECTED LINEAR
CONVECTIVE MODE THIS AREA GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR.

..HALES/SMITH.. 11/22/2010

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2059
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1050 AM CST MON NOV 22 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...MO...WRN IL...ERN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 221650Z - 221815Z

A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS CNTRL/NE MO...ERN IA AND
WRN IL AS STORMS INITIATE AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT...HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE
POSSIBLE. A WW WILL LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE REGION.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS SW AND CNTRL/NE MO IN
AN AREA OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF AN AXIS OF
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. MLCAPE VALUES ARE NOW ESTIMATED IN THE 500 TO
750 J/KG RANGE FROM NEAR JOPLIN MO NNEWD TO AROUND DAVENPORT IA.
MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS AXIS THIS AFTERNOON
FOCUSING A SEVERE THREAT ACROSS CNTRL/NE MO...ERN IA AND WRN IL. THE
LATEST WSR-88D VWPS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR SHOW FAVORABLE SHEAR
PROFILES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES
CALCULATED AT 50 TO 60 KT. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 50 TO 60 KT MID-LEVEL JET AND
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS.
STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT WITH ROTATING STORMS THAT REMAIN DISCRETE. AS STORMS INCREASE
IN COVERAGE...A WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION.

..BROYLES.. 11/22/2010


ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...

[srainhoutx]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 744
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CST MON NOV 22 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA
PARTS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN ILLINOIS
PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1125 AM UNTIL 600
PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
ROCKFORD ILLINOIS TO 50 MILES SOUTH OF QUINCY ILLINOIS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN NUMBER AND
INTENSITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FROM ERN IA INTO NRN MO.
AIR MASS IS NOW MODESTLY UNSTABLE AND WITH THE VERY STRONG SHEAR
PROFILES IN PLACE...SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE WIND DAMAGE...HOWEVER SUPERCELLS INCLUDING POSSIBLE
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY IN ADVANCE OF DEEPENING LOW
MOVING NEWD ACROSS ERN IA INTO WI AND EWD NEAR WARM FRONT ACROSS NRN
IL.

[srainhoutx]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 745
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
115 PM CST MON NOV 22 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 115 PM UNTIL 600
PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 30 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
LONEROCK WISCONSIN TO 5 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF MILWAUKEE
WISCONSIN. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

[Dave]

Looks like activity is starting to fire along the leading edge of the cold front. Only on here for a few minutes but have these warnings + there are several thunderstorm warnings in IL now.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
309 PM CST MON NOV 22 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SULLIVAN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN WALWORTH COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...

* UNTIL 345 PM CST

* AT 305 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR POPLAR GROVE...OR 7 MILES EAST OF MACHESNEY
PARK...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WILLIAMS BAY...LAKE GENEVA...SHARON...WALWORTH...FONTANA-ON-GENEVA
LAKE...COMO...PELL LAKE...GENOA CITY...FONTANA...SPRING PRAIRIE AND
SPRINGFIELD.

[Dave]

ILC007-111-201-222130-
/O.CON.KLOT.TO.W.0032.000000T0000Z-101122T2130Z/
WINNEBAGO IL-MCHENRY IL-BOONE IL-
309 PM CST MON NOV 22 2010

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN BOONE...
NORTHWESTERN MCHENRY AND EAST CENTRAL WINNEBAGO COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM
CST...

AT 304 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
CONFIRMED TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED AT THE INTERSECTION OF
ARGYLE AND HARLEM JUST WEST OF CALEDONIA...AND JUST EAST OF ROCK CUT
STATE PARK. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HARVARD...POPLAR GROVE AND CAPRON.

[Dave]

Also picking up several wind gust reporst in N IL of 70+ mph gusts with wind damage including power lines & trees in NW IL. Hail sizes range from 0.25 to 1.25" in W/NW & Central IL.

That area is still under a Tornado Watch.

[Dave]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2061
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0210 PM CST MON NOV 22 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...IL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 744...

VALID 222010Z - 222145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 744 CONTINUES.

AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT ALONG WITH HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE CELLS IN WW 744. THE THREATS SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AN EXTENSION OF THE TORNADO WATCH
INTO THE CITY OF CHICAGO WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING ACROSS NW IL
EXTENDING SWD THROUGH THE CENTER OF WW 744. THE LINE IS LOCATED FROM
A SFC LOW SWD ALONG A SFC TROUGH. TO THE EAST OF THE
BOUNDARY...MLCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED IN THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRONG UPDRAFTS. IN
ADDITION...REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS SHOW A FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 50 TO 60 KT. AS SFC
TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM IN NERN IL AND THE CELLS MOVE INTO STRONGER
INSTABILITY...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY EXPAND EWD INTO THE
CHICAGO AREA. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT SHOULD EXIST WITH DISCRETE
ROTATING STORMS. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
HAIL BUT WIND DAMAGE MAY BECOME AN INCREASING THREAT AS STORMS
CONGEAL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..BROYLES.. 11/22/2010

[Dave]

Latest Severe thunderstorm warning....

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
319 PM CST MON NOV 22 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL PEORIA COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
NORTH CENTRAL TAZEWELL COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
NORTHWESTERN WOODFORD COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 345 PM CST.

* AT 317 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
HANNA CITY...OR 7 MILES WEST OF PEORIA...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PEORIA...WEST PEORIA...DUNLAP...SPRING BAY...GERMANTOWN HILLS...
ROME...CHILLICOTHE...METAMORA...WASHBURN...ROANOKE...ALTA...PEORIA
HEIGHTS...MOSSVILLE...CAZENOVIA AND LOW POINT.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CST MONDAY EVENING FOR
NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS.